Merced County, CA
Housing, jobs, water, deposits and federal obligations for this county, each figure with the release it came from. Internal point 37.19, -120.72.
Assembled 2026-10-07. Read the brief.
- 87th pct · 373rd of 3,063 US counties · median $234,566
- 35th pct · 38th of 58 California counties · median $500,264
- counties in the Merced metro: Rank context is unavailable: the manifest lists 1 counties in the Merced metro; fewer than 5 is too few to rank.
- 17th pct · 2,536th of 3,063 US counties · median +2.9%
- 31st pct · 40th of 58 California counties · median +0.3%
- counties in the Merced metro: Rank context is unavailable: the manifest lists 1 counties in the Merced metro; fewer than 5 is too few to rank.
- 84th pct · 219th of 1,399 US counties · median $1,496
- 31st pct · 34th of 49 California counties · median $2,340
- counties in the Merced metro: Rank context is unavailable: the manifest lists 1 counties in the Merced metro; fewer than 5 is too few to rank.
- 89th pct · 348th of 3,221 US counties · median 8,232
- 54th pct · 27th of 58 California counties · median 74,865
- counties in the Merced metro: Rank context is unavailable: the manifest lists 1 counties in the Merced metro; fewer than 5 is too few to rank.
- 61st pct · 1,244th of 3,221 US counties · median $1,039
- 19th pct · 47th of 58 California counties · median $1,206
- counties in the Merced metro: Rank context is unavailable: the manifest lists 1 counties in the Merced metro; fewer than 5 is too few to rank.
- 90th pct · 298th of 3,063 US counties · median 4.3
- 47th pct · 31st of 58 California counties · median 7.4
- counties in the Merced metro: Rank context is unavailable: the manifest lists 1 counties in the Merced metro; fewer than 5 is too few to rank.
Typical home value divided by the average annual wage of one covered job.
A percentile here is a min-max scaling of average rank: the smallest published value in the cohort is 0 and the largest is 100, and tied values share the average of the ranks they span. It is not the share of entities below the value, so 0 means smallest, not none below. Entities that did not publish the metric are outside the cohort entirely and are counted in neither the rank nor its denominator.
Home values #
Typical home $417,261 (Aug 2026), -0.6% over one year, +12.4% over five
- 87th pct · 373rd of 3,063 US counties · median $234,566
- 35th pct · 38th of 58 California counties · median $500,264
- counties in the Merced metro: Rank context is unavailable: the manifest lists 1 counties in the Merced metro; fewer than 5 is too few to rank.
| Item | Value | Distance |
|---|---|---|
| Merced County, CA | $417,261 · -0.6% 1-yr |
Zillow Home Value Index (ZHVI), typical value of homes in the 35th to 65th percentile, smoothed and seasonally adjusted; a model estimate of value, not a sale price. Data through Zillow Research.
Rents #
Typical rent $2,036/mo (Aug 2026), +1.5% over one year; price-to-rent 17.1
- 84th pct · 219th of 1,399 US counties · median $1,496
- 31st pct · 34th of 49 California counties · median $2,340
- counties in the Merced metro: Rank context is unavailable: the manifest lists 1 counties in the Merced metro; fewer than 5 is too few to rank.
| Item | Value | Distance |
|---|---|---|
| Merced County, CA | $2,036/mo · +1.5% 1-yr |
Zillow Observed Rent Index (ZORI), smoothed, all homes and multifamily; price-to-rent = typical home / (typical rent × 12).
What the typical home costs to carry #
Principal and interest of $2,284 a month on $417,261 at 7.28%, against an average weekly wage worth $4,745 a month: 48.1% of one job’s pay.
- payment = P·r / (1 − (1+r)^−n), P = $417,261 × 80% = $333,809, r = 7.28%/12 (Freddie Mac PMMS via FRED, 2026-10-01), n = 360 → $2,284/mo principal and interest
- wage share = payment / (avg weekly wage $1,095 × 52 / 12 = $4,745) = 48% of one average job's pay (BLS QCEW 2026 Q1, all covered jobs)
- years of wages = $417,261 / ($1,095 × 52) = 7.3
- price-to-rent = $417,261 / ($2,036 × 12) = 17.1
The wage is one covered job’s average, not a household’s income, so this is the share of a single paycheque and not a mortgage underwriting ratio.
Estimate. Principal and interest on the typical home with 20% down over 30 years at this week's Freddie Mac average rate; compared with the average weekly wage of all jobs covered by unemployment insurance in the area (BLS QCEW), which is pay per job, not household income.
Jobs & wages #
83,506 jobs at 9,153 employers (2026 Q1); +0.8% jobs and +1.3% average weekly wage over the year
- 89th pct · 348th of 3,221 US counties · median 8,232
- 54th pct · 27th of 58 California counties · median 74,865
- counties in the Merced metro: Rank context is unavailable: the manifest lists 1 counties in the Merced metro; fewer than 5 is too few to rank.
| Item | Value | Distance |
|---|---|---|
| Merced County, CA | 83,506 jobs · $1,095/wk · +0.8% YoY |
| NAICS sector | Jobs | Avg weekly wage | Location quotient | Jobs over the year |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Health care and social assistance | 12,839 | $976 | 1.02 | +2.1% |
| Retail trade | 8,442 | $725 | 1.04 | +1.0% |
| Manufacturing | 7,816 | $1,359 | 1.16 | -11.2% |
| Accommodation and food services | 6,405 | $529 | 0.85 | +2.5% |
| Construction | 3,303 | $1,211 | 0.75 | -0.5% |
| Transportation and warehousing | 2,513 | $1,071 | 0.71 | -4.4% |
| Other services | 2,212 | $876 | 0.89 | +1.7% |
| Administrative and waste services | 2,012 | $907 | 0.42 | +22.8% |
| Wholesale trade | 1,768 | $1,455 | 0.55 | +4.9% |
| Finance and insurance | 1,109 | $1,508 | 0.33 | +2.6% |
| Professional and technical services | 948 | $1,163 | 0.16 | +2.3% |
| Management of companies | 802 | $1,829 | 0.57 | -5.1% |
BLS Quarterly Census of Employment and Wages, all ownerships, total covered employment in the quarter's third month; over-the-year changes as published. Suppressed cells stay blank.
Drought #
No drought class at this point (USDM covers the United States only)
Sites found: 5, searched within 0 km of this place’s internal point. That is a disc around a point, not the area itself: sites outside the boundary are included, and sites inside it further than 0 km away are not.
US Drought Monitor current week; the highest class of any polygon containing the point.
Reservoirs #
Surface water layer not loaded
Sites found: 0, searched within 150 km of this place’s internal point. That is a disc around a point, not the area itself: sites outside the boundary are included, and sites inside it further than 150 km away are not.
Σ(capacity × percent full) / Σ capacity over TWDB reservoirs within 150 km. Texas only; elsewhere USGS reservoir elevation/storage is listed without a capacity to normalise by.
Stream gauges #
Surface water layer not loaded
Sites found: 0, searched within 75 km of this place’s internal point. That is a disc around a point, not the area itself: sites outside the boundary are included, and sites inside it further than 75 km away are not.
USGS latest readings screened against EPA freshwater criteria (DO ≥ 5 mg/L, pH 6.5–9, conductance, turbidity, temperature); NWS flood categories where a NWPS gauge is co-located.
Groundwater #
No USGS monitoring wells within 75 km (or above 1,500 km)
Sites found: 0, searched within 75 km of this place’s internal point. That is a disc around a point, not the area itself: sites outside the boundary are included, and sites inside it further than 75 km away are not.
USGS latest daily water levels. A single latest reading says where the table is, not which way it is moving; select a well for its 365-day trace.
Water stress #
low (0.00)
Σ wᵢ·termᵢ / Σ wᵢ = 0.35×0.00 / 0.35
Banks & federal dollars #
$3.4 bn in deposits at 25 offices of 10 banks (SOD June 2026); HHI 1,330, moderately concentrated. $1.4 bn federal obligations in FY2026 (direct payments $1.2 bn, contracts $158.8 m), $16,783 per covered job
| Item | Value | Distance |
|---|---|---|
| JPMorgan Chase Bank, National Association | $624.5 m · 18.5% share · 2 offices | |
| Westamerica Bank | $595.3 m · 17.7% share · 7 offices | |
| Wells Fargo Bank, National Association | $484.9 m · 14.4% share · 3 offices | |
| Merced, CA | $1.4 bn FY2026 · $16,783/job | |
| MULTIPLE RECIPIENTS | $991.3 m · top recipient FY2026 |
| Institution | Deposits | Share | Offices |
|---|---|---|---|
| JPMorgan Chase Bank, National Association | $624,464,000 | 18.5% | 2 |
| Westamerica Bank | $595,253,000 | 17.7% | 7 |
| Wells Fargo Bank, National Association | $484,853,000 | 14.4% | 3 |
| Bank of America, National Association | $468,052,000 | 13.9% | 2 |
| Farmers & Merchants Bank of Central California | $329,417,000 | 9.8% | 2 |
| Mechanics Bank | $311,738,000 | 9.3% | 3 |
| Citibank, National Association | $280,000,000 | 8.3% | 2 |
| Tri Counties Bank | $109,542,000 | 3.3% | 1 |
| PNC Bank, National Association | $103,915,000 | 3.1% | 2 |
| Community West Bank | $60,872,000 | 1.8% | 1 |
Deposit concentration is 1,330 across 10 banks, which the 1995 Department of Justice bank merger screen calls moderately concentrated.
HHI = Σ (share %)² over 10 banks with deposits in the county = 18.5² + 17.7² + 14.4² + … (7 more) = 1,330
FDIC Summary of Deposits: deposits at every insured office as of June 30, annual; HHI is the sum of squared county deposit shares (DOJ 1995 bank merger screen: 1000 / 1800). USAspending: obligations by place of performance for the latest complete federal fiscal year (Oct 1 to Sep 30), what agencies committed, not what they paid out; recipients are legal entities. Per-job divides obligations by BLS QCEW covered employment.
Federal obligations #
USAspending place-of-performance obligations for FY2026, by awarding agency.
| Awarding agency | Obligations |
|---|---|
| Social Security Administration | $869,097,591 |
| Department of the Interior | $127,152,831 |
| Department of Veterans Affairs | $108,998,313 |
| Department of Agriculture | $94,049,568 |
| Department of Health and Human Services | $66,761,829 |
| Department of Education | $58,755,530 |
| Department of Housing and Urban Development | $33,864,025 |
| Department of Transportation | $21,248,899 |
| Environmental Protection Agency | $6,950,000 |
| Department of Justice | $5,314,544 |
| Federal Communications Commission | $3,633,857 |
| National Science Foundation | $2,393,369 |
That is $16,783 per covered job, against 83,506 jobs in the 2026 Q1 QCEW quarter.
per job = FY2026 obligations $1.4 bn / 83,506 covered jobs (BLS QCEW 2026 Q1, all ownerships) = $16,783
USAspending obligations are recorded where the work is performed, so a prime award performed here is counted here even when the recipient is headquartered elsewhere. Recipients are legal entities, never people.
National context, not this county #
These are United States, single-gauge, single-state and port series. None of them is keyed to this county.
| Series | Latest | As of | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Mississippi River at Memphis, stage · ft | not published | not published | |
| Mississippi River at St. Louis, stage · ft | not published | not published | |
| Ohio River at Louisville, stage · ft | 12.69 | 2026-10-05 | +3.3% |
| Missouri River at St. Joseph, stage · ft | not published | not published | |
| Colorado River below Hoover Dam, flow (Hoover releases) · ft³/s | 5,170.00 | 2026-02-05 | -25.3% |
| Texas reservoirs, statewide percent full · % | 72.60 | 2026-10-06 | +0.0% |
| Laredo truck crossings, monthly · trucks | 258,700.00 | 2026-08-01 | -0.4% |
| Los Angeles + Long Beach container volume, annual · TEU | 10,513,167.00 | 2023-01-01 | -13.5% |
| Containerships waiting for a berth, all US ports · ships | 3.00 | 2026-10-06 | -50.0% |
| Shanghai to Los Angeles container rate · $ per 40 ft box | 7,848.00 | 2026-09-01 | +14.9% |
| US diesel retail price · $ per gallon | unavailable | not published | |
| WTI crude oil, spot · $ per barrel | 96.16 | 2026-09-29 | -3.2% |
| 30-year fixed mortgage rate · % | 7.28 | 2026-10-01 | +3.6% |
| Housing starts, annual rate · thousands of units | 1,275.00 | 2026-08-01 | -2.6% |
| Building permits, annual rate · thousands of units | 1,403.00 | 2026-08-01 | -2.1% |
| Case-Shiller US home price index · index, Jan 2000 = 100 | 337.31 | 2026-07-01 | +0.1% |
| Unemployment rate · % | 4.20 | 2026-09-01 | +2.4% |
| US goods and services trade balance, monthly · $ millions | -105,572.00 | 2026-08-01 | -13.7% |
| Retail sales excluding food services, monthly · $ millions | 646,347.00 | 2026-08-01 | +1.1% |
The indicator registry has no county-keyed series and no geographic selection: every entry is national, a named gauge, a single state or a port. They are here as the backdrop the county's own numbers move against, and they are never this county's readings.
What changed #
Merced County, CA: 14 findings, 8 at a watch level and 6 noted
watchMerced County, CA's typical home value is -0.6% against a year earlier, a watch level here: typical home value below a year ago (arithmetic on Zillow ZHVI, county and metro files; not an official level). The previous published period is not in this table, so this is a standing level rather than a change.
Period 2026-08.Show the arithmetic
- test: home.yoyPct = -0.5545218233734751 < 0
arithmetic on Zillow ZHVI, county and metro files; not an official level
watchMerced County, CA's years of wages of 7.3 ranks 298th of 3,063 US counties, a watch level here: years of wages in the top tenth of US counties (position among the counties that published both a ZHVI value and a QCEW average weekly wage; not an official level). The previous published period is not in this table, so this is a standing level rather than a change.
Period 2026-08.Show the arithmetic
- test: yearsOfWages percentile = 90.3004572175049 >= 90
- typical home value / (average weekly wage × 52); one average covered job, not a household
position among the counties that published both a ZHVI value and a QCEW average weekly wage; not an official level
watchMerced County, CA's typical asking rent of $2,036 scores 84 on the 0-to-100 scale across US counties but 31 across California counties, a gap of 53 points.
Period 2026-08.Show the arithmetic
- 53 = |84 across US counties - 31 across California counties|
position among the entities that published this metric this period; not an official level
watchMerced County, CA's typical home value of $417,261 scores 88 on the 0-to-100 scale across US counties but 35 across California counties, a gap of 53 points.
Period 2026-08.Show the arithmetic
- 53 = |88 across US counties - 35 across California counties|
position among the entities that published this metric this period; not an official level
watchMerced County, CA's years of wages of 7.3 scores 90 on the 0-to-100 scale across US counties but 47 across California counties, a gap of 43 points.
Period 2026-08.Show the arithmetic
- 43 = |90 across US counties - 47 across California counties|
- typical home value / (average weekly wage × 52); one average covered job, not a household
position among the entities that published this metric this period; not an official level
Read all 12 findings in the full brief
Every finding is produced by a fixed rule table and a fixed sentence for each rule. Nothing here is generated prose.