Clay County, KY
Housing, jobs, water, deposits and federal obligations for this county, each figure with the release it came from. Internal point 37.16, -83.72.
Assembled 2026-10-07. Read the brief.
- 5th pct · 2,900th of 3,063 US counties · median $234,566
- 11th pct · 106th of 120 Kentucky counties · median $181,373
- 0th pct · 3,035th of 3,063 US counties · median +2.9%
- 13th pct · 104th of 120 Kentucky counties · median -2.1%
- US counties: not published this period
- Kentucky counties: not published this period
- 32nd pct · 2,178th of 3,221 US counties · median 8,232
- 45th pct · 66th of 120 Kentucky counties · median 5,237
- 23rd pct · 2,452nd of 3,221 US counties · median $1,039
- 39th pct · 73rd of 120 Kentucky counties · median $953
- 8th pct · 2,793rd of 3,063 US counties · median 4.3
- 16th pct · 100th of 120 Kentucky counties · median 3.6
Typical home value divided by the average annual wage of one covered job.
A percentile here is a min-max scaling of average rank: the smallest published value in the cohort is 0 and the largest is 100, and tied values share the average of the ranks they span. It is not the share of entities below the value, so 0 means smallest, not none below. Entities that did not publish the metric are outside the cohort entirely and are counted in neither the rank nor its denominator.
Home values #
Typical home $114,422 (Aug 2026), -11.0% over one year, +16.5% over five
- 5th pct · 2,900th of 3,063 US counties · median $234,566
- 11th pct · 106th of 120 Kentucky counties · median $181,373
| Item | Value | Distance |
|---|---|---|
| Clay County, KY | $114,422 · -11.0% 1-yr |
Zillow Home Value Index (ZHVI), typical value of homes in the 35th to 65th percentile, smoothed and seasonally adjusted; a model estimate of value, not a sale price. Data through Zillow Research.
Rents #
Zillow publishes no rent index for this area (ZORI covers about 1,400 counties)
- US counties: not published this period
- Kentucky counties: not published this period
Zillow Observed Rent Index (ZORI), smoothed, all homes and multifamily; price-to-rent = typical home / (typical rent × 12).
What the typical home costs to carry #
Principal and interest of $626 a month on $114,422 at 7.28%, against an average weekly wage worth $4,000 a month: 15.7% of one job’s pay.
- payment = P·r / (1 − (1+r)^−n), P = $114,422 × 80% = $91,538, r = 7.28%/12 (Freddie Mac PMMS via FRED, 2026-10-01), n = 360 → $626/mo principal and interest
- wage share = payment / (avg weekly wage $923 × 52 / 12 = $4,000) = 16% of one average job's pay (BLS QCEW 2026 Q1, all covered jobs)
- years of wages = $114,422 / ($923 × 52) = 2.4
The wage is one covered job’s average, not a household’s income, so this is the share of a single paycheque and not a mortgage underwriting ratio.
Estimate. Principal and interest on the typical home with 20% down over 30 years at this week's Freddie Mac average rate; compared with the average weekly wage of all jobs covered by unemployment insurance in the area (BLS QCEW), which is pay per job, not household income.
Jobs & wages #
4,112 jobs at 431 employers (2026 Q1); +0.5% jobs and +0.3% average weekly wage over the year
- 32nd pct · 2,178th of 3,221 US counties · median 8,232
- 45th pct · 66th of 120 Kentucky counties · median 5,237
| Item | Value | Distance |
|---|---|---|
| Clay County, KY | 4,112 jobs · $923/wk · +0.5% YoY |
| NAICS sector | Jobs | Avg weekly wage | Location quotient | Jobs over the year |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Health care and social assistance | 1,106 | $1,058 | 1.79 | +4.6% |
| Retail trade | 540 | $522 | 1.35 | -7.8% |
| Manufacturing | 131 | $560 | 0.40 | -9.7% |
| Professional and technical services | 118 | $827 | 0.42 | -4.1% |
| Construction | 104 | $896 | 0.48 | -1.0% |
| Finance and insurance | 97 | $948 | 0.58 | +9.0% |
| Other services | 69 | $769 | 0.56 | +0.0% |
| Wholesale trade | 60 | $712 | 0.38 | +13.2% |
| Educational services | 47 | $579 | 0.53 | -13.0% |
| Transportation and warehousing | 18 | $771 | 0.10 | +125.0% |
| Utilities | 17 | $941 | 1.05 | -5.6% |
| Information | 16 | $1,382 | 0.21 | +0.0% |
BLS Quarterly Census of Employment and Wages, all ownerships, total covered employment in the quarter's third month; over-the-year changes as published. Suppressed cells stay blank.
Drought #
D0 abnormally dry
Sites found: 5, searched within 0 km of this place’s internal point. That is a disc around a point, not the area itself: sites outside the boundary are included, and sites inside it further than 0 km away are not.
US Drought Monitor current week; the highest class of any polygon containing the point.
Reservoirs #
Surface water layer not loaded
Sites found: 0, searched within 150 km of this place’s internal point. That is a disc around a point, not the area itself: sites outside the boundary are included, and sites inside it further than 150 km away are not.
Σ(capacity × percent full) / Σ capacity over TWDB reservoirs within 150 km. Texas only; elsewhere USGS reservoir elevation/storage is listed without a capacity to normalise by.
Stream gauges #
Surface water layer not loaded
Sites found: 0, searched within 75 km of this place’s internal point. That is a disc around a point, not the area itself: sites outside the boundary are included, and sites inside it further than 75 km away are not.
USGS latest readings screened against EPA freshwater criteria (DO ≥ 5 mg/L, pH 6.5–9, conductance, turbidity, temperature); NWS flood categories where a NWPS gauge is co-located.
Groundwater #
No USGS monitoring wells within 75 km (or above 1,500 km)
Sites found: 0, searched within 75 km of this place’s internal point. That is a disc around a point, not the area itself: sites outside the boundary are included, and sites inside it further than 75 km away are not.
USGS latest daily water levels. A single latest reading says where the table is, not which way it is moving; select a well for its 365-day trace.
Water stress #
low (0.00)
Σ wᵢ·termᵢ / Σ wᵢ = 0.35×0.00 / 0.35
Banks & federal dollars #
$259.6 m in deposits at 4 offices of 2 banks (SOD June 2026); HHI 5,255, highly concentrated. $126.1 m federal obligations in FY2026 (direct payments $119.8 m, contracts $4.4 m), $30,677 per covered job
| Item | Value | Distance |
|---|---|---|
| The First National Bank of Manchester | $159.1 m · 61.3% share · 3 offices | |
| PNC Bank, National Association | $100.5 m · 38.7% share · 1 office | |
| Clay, KY | $126.1 m FY2026 · $30,677/job | |
| MULTIPLE RECIPIENTS | $117.2 m · top recipient FY2026 |
| Institution | Deposits | Share | Offices |
|---|---|---|---|
| The First National Bank of Manchester | $159,104,000 | 61.3% | 3 |
| PNC Bank, National Association | $100,501,000 | 38.7% | 1 |
Deposit concentration is 5,255 across 2 banks, which the 1995 Department of Justice bank merger screen calls highly concentrated.
HHI = Σ (share %)² over 2 banks with deposits in the county = 61.3² + 38.7² = 5,255
FDIC Summary of Deposits: deposits at every insured office as of June 30, annual; HHI is the sum of squared county deposit shares (DOJ 1995 bank merger screen: 1000 / 1800). USAspending: obligations by place of performance for the latest complete federal fiscal year (Oct 1 to Sep 30), what agencies committed, not what they paid out; recipients are legal entities. Per-job divides obligations by BLS QCEW covered employment.
Federal obligations #
USAspending place-of-performance obligations for FY2026, by awarding agency.
| Awarding agency | Obligations |
|---|---|
| Social Security Administration | $108,576,847 |
| Department of Veterans Affairs | $7,952,839 |
| Department of Justice | $4,305,696 |
| Department of Health and Human Services | $3,064,759 |
| Department of Agriculture | $2,092,372 |
| Department of Housing and Urban Development | $349,354 |
| Federal Communications Commission | $295,586 |
| Department of Education | $221,659 |
| Railroad Retirement Board | $194,616 |
| Small Business Administration | -$13,273 |
| Department of the Treasury | -$322,009 |
| Department of Transportation | -$573,544 |
That is $30,677 per covered job, against 4,112 jobs in the 2026 Q1 QCEW quarter.
per job = FY2026 obligations $126.1 m / 4,112 covered jobs (BLS QCEW 2026 Q1, all ownerships) = $30,677
USAspending obligations are recorded where the work is performed, so a prime award performed here is counted here even when the recipient is headquartered elsewhere. Recipients are legal entities, never people.
National context, not this county #
These are United States, single-gauge, single-state and port series. None of them is keyed to this county.
| Series | Latest | As of | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Mississippi River at Memphis, stage · ft | not published | not published | |
| Mississippi River at St. Louis, stage · ft | not published | not published | |
| Ohio River at Louisville, stage · ft | 12.69 | 2026-10-05 | +3.3% |
| Missouri River at St. Joseph, stage · ft | not published | not published | |
| Colorado River below Hoover Dam, flow (Hoover releases) · ft³/s | 5,170.00 | 2026-02-05 | -25.3% |
| Texas reservoirs, statewide percent full · % | 72.60 | 2026-10-06 | +0.0% |
| Laredo truck crossings, monthly · trucks | 258,700.00 | 2026-08-01 | -0.4% |
| Los Angeles + Long Beach container volume, annual · TEU | 10,513,167.00 | 2023-01-01 | -13.5% |
| Containerships waiting for a berth, all US ports · ships | 3.00 | 2026-10-06 | -50.0% |
| Shanghai to Los Angeles container rate · $ per 40 ft box | 7,848.00 | 2026-09-01 | +14.9% |
| US diesel retail price · $ per gallon | unavailable | not published | |
| WTI crude oil, spot · $ per barrel | 96.16 | 2026-09-29 | -3.2% |
| 30-year fixed mortgage rate · % | 7.28 | 2026-10-01 | +3.6% |
| Housing starts, annual rate · thousands of units | 1,275.00 | 2026-08-01 | -2.6% |
| Building permits, annual rate · thousands of units | 1,403.00 | 2026-08-01 | -2.1% |
| Case-Shiller US home price index · index, Jan 2000 = 100 | 337.31 | 2026-07-01 | +0.1% |
| Unemployment rate · % | 4.20 | 2026-09-01 | +2.4% |
| US goods and services trade balance, monthly · $ millions | -105,572.00 | 2026-08-01 | -13.7% |
| Retail sales excluding food services, monthly · $ millions | 646,347.00 | 2026-08-01 | +1.1% |
The indicator registry has no county-keyed series and no geographic selection: every entry is national, a named gauge, a single state or a port. They are here as the backdrop the county's own numbers move against, and they are never this county's readings.
What changed #
Clay County, KY: 13 findings, 1 at an alert level, 3 at a watch level and 9 noted
alertClay County, KY's typical home value is -11.0% against a year earlier, an alert level here: typical home value at least 5 percent below a year ago (arithmetic on Zillow ZHVI, county and metro files; convention chosen for this dashboard, not an official level). The previous published period is not in this table, so this is a standing level rather than a change.
Period 2026-08.Show the arithmetic
- test: home.yoyPct = -11.048112861203952 <= -5
arithmetic on Zillow ZHVI, county and metro files; convention chosen for this dashboard, not an official level
watchClay County, KY's typical home value is -11.0% against a year earlier, a watch level here: typical home value below a year ago (arithmetic on Zillow ZHVI, county and metro files; not an official level). The previous published period is not in this table, so this is a standing level rather than a change.
Period 2026-08.Show the arithmetic
- test: home.yoyPct = -11.048112861203952 < 0
arithmetic on Zillow ZHVI, county and metro files; not an official level
watchClay County, KY's typical home value is -1.2% against the previous month, a watch level here: typical home value at least 1 percent below the previous month (arithmetic on the Zillow ZHVI month columns; convention chosen for this dashboard, not an official level). The previous published period is not in this table, so this is a standing level rather than a change.
Period 2026-08.Show the arithmetic
- test: home.momPct = -1.1611626796961527 <= -1
- month-over-month percent change = (newest month − previous month) / |previous month| × 100, from Zillow's own published month columns
arithmetic on the Zillow ZHVI month columns; convention chosen for this dashboard, not an official level
watchClay County, KY's momentum index is -0.28, a watch level here: momentum index in the cooling band (the cooling band of the momentum index computed here, score at or below -0.25; convention chosen for this dashboard, not an official level). The previous published period is not in this table, so this is a standing level rather than a change.
Period 2026-08.Show the arithmetic
- test: momentum = -0.27941176470588236 <= -0.25
- momentum = Σ wᵢ · clip(changeᵢ / scaleᵢ, −1, 1) / Σ wᵢ over the terms present; weights and scales: home value 1-yr change 0.3 (±10%), rent 1-yr change 0.15 (±10%), jobs over-the-year change 0.3 (±3%), avg weekly wage over-the-year change 0.25 (±6%)
the cooling band of the momentum index computed here, score at or below -0.25; convention chosen for this dashboard, not an official level
noteClay County, KY's typical home value fell 1.2% from $115,767 in July 2026 to $114,422 in August 2026, on Zillow ZHVI.
Period 2026-08.Show the arithmetic
- -1.2% = (114422.28501392675 - 115766.52267076162) / 115766.52267076162 × 100
- 114422.28501392675 = Zillow ZHVI, 2026-08
- 115766.52267076162 = Zillow ZHVI, 2026-07
Read all 12 findings in the full brief
Every finding is produced by a fixed rule table and a fixed sentence for each rule. Nothing here is generated prose.