Tuscola County, MI

Home values #

Typical home $189,184 (Aug 2026), +5.9% over one year, +21.9% over five

• 32nd pct · 2,072nd of 3,063 US counties · median $234,566
• 24th pct · 63rd of 83 Michigan counties · median $226,891

Zillow Home Value Index (ZHVI), typical value of homes in the 35th to 65th percentile, smoothed and seasonally adjusted; a model estimate of value, not a sale price. Data through Zillow Research.

Rents #

Zillow publishes no rent index for this area (ZORI covers about 1,400 counties)

• US counties: not published this period
• Michigan counties: not published this period

Zillow Observed Rent Index (ZORI), smoothed, all homes and multifamily; price-to-rent = typical home / (typical rent × 12).

What the typical home costs to carry #

Principal and interest of $1,036 a month on $189,184 at 7.28%, against an average weekly wage worth $4,238 a month: 24.4% of one job’s pay.

• payment = P·r / (1 − (1+r)^−n), P = $189,184 × 80% = $151,347, r = 7.28%/12 (Freddie Mac PMMS via FRED, 2026-10-01), n = 360 → $1,036/mo principal and interest
• wage share = payment / (avg weekly wage $978 × 52 / 12 = $4,238) = 24% of one average job's pay (BLS QCEW 2026 Q1, all covered jobs)
• years of wages = $189,184 / ($978 × 52) = 3.7

The wage is one covered job’s average, not a household’s income, so this is the share of a single paycheque and not a mortgage underwriting ratio.

Estimate. Principal and interest on the typical home with 20% down over 30 years at this week's Freddie Mac average rate; compared with the average weekly wage of all jobs covered by unemployment insurance in the area (BLS QCEW), which is pay per job, not household income.

Jobs & wages #

12,229 jobs at 956 employers (2026 Q1); +2.0% jobs and +0.1% average weekly wage over the year

• 59th pct · 1,305th of 3,221 US counties · median 8,232
• 46th pct · 45th of 83 Michigan counties · median 12,414

BLS Quarterly Census of Employment and Wages, all ownerships, total covered employment in the quarter's third month; over-the-year changes as published. Suppressed cells stay blank.

Drought #

D0 abnormally dry

Sites found: 5, searched within 0 km of this place’s internal point. That is a disc around a point, not the area itself: sites outside the boundary are included, and sites inside it further than 0 km away are not.

US Drought Monitor current week; the highest class of any polygon containing the point.

Reservoirs #

No reservoir gauges within 150 km (or the camera is above the gauge altitude)

Sites found: 0, searched within 150 km of this place’s internal point. That is a disc around a point, not the area itself: sites outside the boundary are included, and sites inside it further than 150 km away are not.

Σ(capacity × percent full) / Σ capacity over TWDB reservoirs within 150 km. Texas only; elsewhere USGS reservoir elevation/storage is listed without a capacity to normalise by.

Stream gauges #

39 gauges · 0 flooding · 2 with quality panels averaging 95 % · 9 stale

Sites found: 39, searched within 75 km of this place’s internal point. That is a disc around a point, not the area itself: sites outside the boundary are included, and sites inside it further than 75 km away are not.

USGS latest readings screened against EPA freshwater criteria (DO ≥ 5 mg/L, pH 6.5–9, conductance, turbidity, temperature); NWS flood categories where a NWPS gauge is co-located.

Groundwater #

10 wells in 0 named aquifers:

Sites found: 10, searched within 75 km of this place’s internal point. That is a disc around a point, not the area itself: sites outside the boundary are included, and sites inside it further than 75 km away are not.

USGS latest daily water levels. A single latest reading says where the table is, not which way it is moving; select a well for its 365-day trace.

Water stress #

low (0.02)

Σ wᵢ·termᵢ / Σ wᵢ = 0.35×0.00 + 0.2×0.05 / 0.55

Banks & federal dollars #

$589.3 m in deposits at 11 offices of 6 banks (SOD June 2026); HHI 2,092, highly concentrated. $394.1 m federal obligations in FY2026 (direct payments $383.9 m, grants $10.1 m), $32,228 per covered job

Deposit concentration is 2,092 across 6 banks, which the 1995 Department of Justice bank merger screen calls highly concentrated.

HHI = Σ (share %)² over 6 banks with deposits in the county = 28.9² + 25.5² + 14.4² + … (3 more) = 2,092

FDIC Summary of Deposits: deposits at every insured office as of June 30, annual; HHI is the sum of squared county deposit shares (DOJ 1995 bank merger screen: 1000 / 1800). USAspending: obligations by place of performance for the latest complete federal fiscal year (Oct 1 to Sep 30), what agencies committed, not what they paid out; recipients are legal entities. Per-job divides obligations by BLS QCEW covered employment.

Federal obligations #

USAspending place-of-performance obligations for FY2026, by awarding agency.

That is $32,228 per covered job, against 12,229 jobs in the 2026 Q1 QCEW quarter.

per job = FY2026 obligations $394.1 m / 12,229 covered jobs (BLS QCEW 2026 Q1, all ownerships) = $32,228

USAspending obligations are recorded where the work is performed, so a prime award performed here is counted here even when the recipient is headquartered elsewhere. Recipients are legal entities, never people.

National context, not this county #

These are United States, single-gauge, single-state and port series. None of them is keyed to this county.

The indicator registry has no county-keyed series and no geographic selection: every entry is national, a named gauge, a single state or a port. They are here as the backdrop the county's own numbers move against, and they are never this county's readings.

What changed #

Tuscola County, MI: 4 findings, 1 at a watch level and 3 noted

1. watchTuscola County, MI's momentum index of 0.45 scores 77 on the 0-to-100 scale across US counties but 44 across Michigan counties, a gap of 33 points.

   Period 2026-08.
   Show the arithmetic

   • 33 = |77 across US counties - 44 across Michigan counties|
   • momentum = Σ wᵢ · clip(changeᵢ / scaleᵢ, −1, 1) / Σ wᵢ over the terms present; weights and scales: home value 1-yr change 0.3 (±10%), rent 1-yr change 0.15 (±10%), jobs over-the-year change 0.3 (±3%), avg weekly wage over-the-year change 0.25 (±6%)

   position among the entities that published this metric this period; not an official level

2. noteTuscola County, MI's covered employment was 2.0% higher than the same quarter a year earlier in 2026 Q1, on BLS QCEW's published over-the-year change.

   Period 2026 Q1.
   Show the arithmetic

   • +2 % = BLS QCEW over-the-year percent change for 2026 Q1, as published
   • the newest QCEW file carries no year-earlier level, so no move from one level to another is printed

   BLS QCEW over-the-year percent change, as published

3. noteTuscola County, MI's average weekly wage was 0.1% higher than the same quarter a year earlier in 2026 Q1, on BLS QCEW's published over-the-year change.

   Period 2026 Q1.
   Show the arithmetic

   • +0.1 % = BLS QCEW over-the-year percent change for 2026 Q1, as published
   • the newest QCEW file carries no year-earlier level, so no move from one level to another is printed

   BLS QCEW over-the-year percent change, as published

4. noteThe next Zillow ZHVI typical home value (monthly) covering Tuscola County, MI is due between 2026-10-14 and 2026-10-21, estimated from the publisher's past release pattern.

   Show the arithmetic

   • window = 2026-10-14 to 2026-10-21, estimated from the publisher's past release pattern

   estimated from the publisher's past release pattern; not an announced date

Read the full brief

Every finding is produced by a fixed rule table and a fixed sentence for each rule. Nothing here is generated prose.