Fergus County, MT
Housing, jobs, water, deposits and federal obligations for this county, each figure with the release it came from. Internal point 47.22, -109.23.
Assembled 2026-10-06. Read the brief.
- 69th pct · 928th of 3,063 US counties · median $234,566
- 54th pct · 26th of 56 Montana counties · median $296,564
- 81st pct · 558th of 3,063 US counties · median +2.9%
- 65th pct · 20th of 56 Montana counties · median +4.1%
- US counties: not published this period
- Montana counties: not published this period
- 35th pct · 2,078th of 3,221 US counties · median 8,232
- 74th pct · 15th of 56 Montana counties · median 2,560
- 31st pct · 2,214th of 3,221 US counties · median $1,039
- 37th pct · 35th of 56 Montana counties · median $996
- 79th pct · 636th of 3,063 US counties · median 4.3
- 56th pct · 25th of 56 Montana counties · median 5.8
Typical home value divided by the average annual wage of one covered job.
A percentile here is a min-max scaling of average rank: the smallest published value in the cohort is 0 and the largest is 100, and tied values share the average of the ranks they span. It is not the share of entities below the value, so 0 means smallest, not none below. Entities that did not publish the metric are outside the cohort entirely and are counted in neither the rank nor its denominator.
Home values #
Typical home $300,474 (Aug 2026), +6.2% over one year, +45.5% over five
- 69th pct · 928th of 3,063 US counties · median $234,566
- 54th pct · 26th of 56 Montana counties · median $296,564
| Item | Value | Distance |
|---|---|---|
| Fergus County, MT | $300,474 · +6.2% 1-yr |
Zillow Home Value Index (ZHVI), typical value of homes in the 35th to 65th percentile, smoothed and seasonally adjusted; a model estimate of value, not a sale price. Data through Zillow Research.
Rents #
Zillow publishes no rent index for this area (ZORI covers about 1,400 counties)
- US counties: not published this period
- Montana counties: not published this period
Zillow Observed Rent Index (ZORI), smoothed, all homes and multifamily; price-to-rent = typical home / (typical rent × 12).
What the typical home costs to carry #
Principal and interest of $1,645 a month on $300,474 at 7.28%, against an average weekly wage worth $4,147 a month: 39.7% of one job’s pay.
- payment = P·r / (1 − (1+r)^−n), P = $300,474 × 80% = $240,379, r = 7.28%/12 (Freddie Mac PMMS via FRED, 2026-10-01), n = 360 → $1,645/mo principal and interest
- wage share = payment / (avg weekly wage $957 × 52 / 12 = $4,147) = 40% of one average job's pay (BLS QCEW 2026 Q1, all covered jobs)
- years of wages = $300,474 / ($957 × 52) = 6.0
The wage is one covered job’s average, not a household’s income, so this is the share of a single paycheque and not a mortgage underwriting ratio.
Estimate. Principal and interest on the typical home with 20% down over 30 years at this week's Freddie Mac average rate; compared with the average weekly wage of all jobs covered by unemployment insurance in the area (BLS QCEW), which is pay per job, not household income.
Jobs & wages #
4,687 jobs at 562 employers (2026 Q1); +1.3% jobs and +5.0% average weekly wage over the year
- 35th pct · 2,078th of 3,221 US counties · median 8,232
- 74th pct · 15th of 56 Montana counties · median 2,560
| Item | Value | Distance |
|---|---|---|
| Fergus County, MT | 4,687 jobs · $957/wk · +1.3% YoY |
| NAICS sector | Jobs | Avg weekly wage | Location quotient | Jobs over the year |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Retail trade | 526 | $699 | 1.15 | +1.3% |
| Manufacturing | 487 | $1,110 | 1.29 | +3.4% |
| Accommodation and food services | 446 | $374 | 1.06 | +1.4% |
| Construction | 347 | $998 | 1.41 | -1.4% |
| Wholesale trade | 255 | $1,110 | 1.42 | -3.8% |
| Finance and insurance | 161 | $1,529 | 0.84 | +1.9% |
| Professional and technical services | 129 | $1,064 | 0.40 | -0.8% |
| Other services | 121 | $460 | 0.86 | -12.3% |
| Arts, entertainment and recreation | 81 | $321 | 1.05 | +6.6% |
| Information | 70 | $628 | 0.81 | +22.8% |
| Real estate and rental | 25 | $551 | 0.35 | +0.0% |
| Unclassified | 9 | $1,190 | 0.90 | +12.5% |
BLS Quarterly Census of Employment and Wages, all ownerships, total covered employment in the quarter's third month; over-the-year changes as published. Suppressed cells stay blank.
Drought #
D1 moderate drought
Sites found: 5, searched within 0 km of this place’s internal point. That is a disc around a point, not the area itself: sites outside the boundary are included, and sites inside it further than 0 km away are not.
US Drought Monitor current week; the highest class of any polygon containing the point.
Reservoirs #
Surface water layer not loaded
Sites found: 0, searched within 150 km of this place’s internal point. That is a disc around a point, not the area itself: sites outside the boundary are included, and sites inside it further than 150 km away are not.
Σ(capacity × percent full) / Σ capacity over TWDB reservoirs within 150 km. Texas only; elsewhere USGS reservoir elevation/storage is listed without a capacity to normalise by.
Stream gauges #
Surface water layer not loaded
Sites found: 0, searched within 75 km of this place’s internal point. That is a disc around a point, not the area itself: sites outside the boundary are included, and sites inside it further than 75 km away are not.
USGS latest readings screened against EPA freshwater criteria (DO ≥ 5 mg/L, pH 6.5–9, conductance, turbidity, temperature); NWS flood categories where a NWPS gauge is co-located.
Groundwater #
No USGS monitoring wells within 75 km (or above 1,500 km)
Sites found: 0, searched within 75 km of this place’s internal point. That is a disc around a point, not the area itself: sites outside the boundary are included, and sites inside it further than 75 km away are not.
USGS latest daily water levels. A single latest reading says where the table is, not which way it is moving; select a well for its 365-day trace.
Water stress #
moderate (0.25)
Σ wᵢ·termᵢ / Σ wᵢ = 0.35×0.25 / 0.35
Banks & federal dollars #
$427.0 m in deposits at 7 offices of 5 banks (SOD June 2026); HHI 3,004, highly concentrated. $121.7 m federal obligations in FY2026 (direct payments $86.4 m, grants $25.1 m), $25,971 per covered job
| Item | Value | Distance |
|---|---|---|
| Glacier Bank | $183.1 m · 42.9% share · 2 offices | |
| Stockman Bank of Montana | $126.5 m · 29.6% share · 1 office | |
| Wells Fargo Bank, National Association | $59.8 m · 14.0% share · 1 office | |
| Fergus, MT | $121.7 m FY2026 · $25,971/job |
| Institution | Deposits | Share | Offices |
|---|---|---|---|
| Glacier Bank | $183,109,000 | 42.9% | 2 |
| Stockman Bank of Montana | $126,473,000 | 29.6% | 1 |
| Wells Fargo Bank, National Association | $59,773,000 | 14.0% | 1 |
| Bank of The Rockies | $31,611,000 | 7.4% | 1 |
| Opportunity Bank of Montana | $26,028,000 | 6.1% | 2 |
Deposit concentration is 3,004 across 5 banks, which the 1995 Department of Justice bank merger screen calls highly concentrated.
HHI = Σ (share %)² over 5 banks with deposits in the county = 42.9² + 29.6² + 14.0² + … (2 more) = 3,004
FDIC Summary of Deposits: deposits at every insured office as of June 30, annual; HHI is the sum of squared county deposit shares (DOJ 1995 bank merger screen: 1000 / 1800). USAspending: obligations by place of performance for the latest complete federal fiscal year (Oct 1 to Sep 30), what agencies committed, not what they paid out; recipients are legal entities. Per-job divides obligations by BLS QCEW covered employment.
Federal obligations #
That is $25,971 per covered job, against 4,687 jobs in the 2026 Q1 QCEW quarter.
per job = FY2026 obligations $121.7 m / 4,687 covered jobs (BLS QCEW 2026 Q1, all ownerships) = $25,971
USAspending obligations are recorded where the work is performed, so a prime award performed here is counted here even when the recipient is headquartered elsewhere. Recipients are legal entities, never people.
National context, not this county #
These are United States, single-gauge, single-state and port series. None of them is keyed to this county.
| Series | Latest | As of | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Mississippi River at Memphis, stage · ft | not published | not published | |
| Mississippi River at St. Louis, stage · ft | not published | not published | |
| Ohio River at Louisville, stage · ft | 12.69 | 2026-10-05 | +3.3% |
| Missouri River at St. Joseph, stage · ft | not published | not published | |
| Colorado River below Hoover Dam, flow (Hoover releases) · ft³/s | 5,170.00 | 2026-02-05 | -25.3% |
| Texas reservoirs, statewide percent full · % | 72.60 | 2026-10-06 | +0.0% |
| Laredo truck crossings, monthly · trucks | 258,700.00 | 2026-08-01 | -0.4% |
| Los Angeles + Long Beach container volume, annual · TEU | 10,513,167.00 | 2023-01-01 | -13.5% |
| Containerships waiting for a berth, all US ports · ships | 6.00 | 2026-09-22 | -14.3% |
| Shanghai to Los Angeles container rate · $ per 40 ft box | 6,830.00 | 2026-08-01 | +7.4% |
| US diesel retail price · $ per gallon | unavailable | not published | |
| WTI crude oil, spot · $ per barrel | 96.16 | 2026-09-29 | -3.2% |
| 30-year fixed mortgage rate · % | 7.28 | 2026-10-01 | +3.6% |
| Housing starts, annual rate · thousands of units | 1,275.00 | 2026-08-01 | -2.6% |
| Building permits, annual rate · thousands of units | 1,403.00 | 2026-08-01 | -2.1% |
| Case-Shiller US home price index · index, Jan 2000 = 100 | 337.31 | 2026-07-01 | +0.1% |
| Unemployment rate · % | 4.20 | 2026-09-01 | +2.4% |
| US goods and services trade balance, monthly · $ millions | -105,572.00 | 2026-08-01 | -13.7% |
| Retail sales excluding food services, monthly · $ millions | 646,347.00 | 2026-08-01 | +1.1% |
The indicator registry has no county-keyed series and no geographic selection: every entry is national, a named gauge, a single state or a port. They are here as the backdrop the county's own numbers move against, and they are never this county's readings.
What changed #
Fergus County, MT: 6 findings, 1 at a watch level and 5 noted
watchFergus County, MT's covered employment of 4,687 scores 35 on the 0-to-100 scale across US counties but 75 across Montana counties, a gap of 39 points.
Period 2026 Q1.Show the arithmetic
- 39 = |35 across US counties - 75 across Montana counties|
position among the entities that published this metric this period; not an official level
noteFergus County, MT's average weekly wage was 5.0% higher than the same quarter a year earlier in 2026 Q1, on BLS QCEW's published over-the-year change.
Period 2026 Q1.Show the arithmetic
- +5 % = BLS QCEW over-the-year percent change for 2026 Q1, as published
- the newest QCEW file carries no year-earlier level, so no move from one level to another is printed
BLS QCEW over-the-year percent change, as published
noteFergus County, MT's covered employment was 1.3% higher than the same quarter a year earlier in 2026 Q1, on BLS QCEW's published over-the-year change.
Period 2026 Q1.Show the arithmetic
- +1.3 % = BLS QCEW over-the-year percent change for 2026 Q1, as published
- the newest QCEW file carries no year-earlier level, so no move from one level to another is printed
BLS QCEW over-the-year percent change, as published
noteFergus County, MT's typical home value fell 0.9% from $303,191 in July 2026 to $300,474 in August 2026, on Zillow ZHVI.
Period 2026-08.Show the arithmetic
- -0.9% = (300473.5965731172 - 303191.49444325344) / 303191.49444325344 × 100
- 300473.5965731172 = Zillow ZHVI, 2026-08
- 303191.49444325344 = Zillow ZHVI, 2026-07
noteFergus County, MT's momentum index of 0.62 ranks 311th of 3,221 US counties, against a median of 0.23.
Period 2026-08.Show the arithmetic
- 90 on the 0-to-100 scale across 3221 US counties that published momentum
- momentum = Σ wᵢ · clip(changeᵢ / scaleᵢ, −1, 1) / Σ wᵢ over the terms present; weights and scales: home value 1-yr change 0.3 (±10%), rent 1-yr change 0.15 (±10%), jobs over-the-year change 0.3 (±3%), avg weekly wage over-the-year change 0.25 (±6%)
position among the entities that published this metric this period; not an official level
Read all 6 findings in the full brief
Every finding is produced by a fixed rule table and a fixed sentence for each rule. Nothing here is generated prose.