Rosebud County, MT
Housing, jobs, water, deposits and federal obligations for this county, each figure with the release it came from. Internal point 46.17, -106.67.
Assembled 2026-10-06. Read the brief.
- 50th pct · 1,516th of 3,063 US counties · median $234,566
- 32nd pct · 38th of 56 Montana counties · median $296,564
- 55th pct · 1,353rd of 3,063 US counties · median +2.9%
- 43rd pct · 32nd of 56 Montana counties · median +4.1%
- US counties: not published this period
- Montana counties: not published this period
- 27th pct · 2,331st of 3,221 US counties · median 8,232
- 65th pct · 20th of 56 Montana counties · median 2,560
- 73rd pct · 842nd of 3,221 US counties · median $1,039
- 80th pct · 12th of 56 Montana counties · median $996
- 40th pct · 1,827th of 3,063 US counties · median 4.3
- 16th pct · 47th of 56 Montana counties · median 5.8
Typical home value divided by the average annual wage of one covered job.
A percentile here is a min-max scaling of average rank: the smallest published value in the cohort is 0 and the largest is 100, and tied values share the average of the ranks they span. It is not the share of entities below the value, so 0 means smallest, not none below. Entities that did not publish the metric are outside the cohort entirely and are counted in neither the rank nor its denominator.
Home values #
Typical home $235,637 (Aug 2026), +3.5% over one year, +27.6% over five
- 50th pct · 1,516th of 3,063 US counties · median $234,566
- 32nd pct · 38th of 56 Montana counties · median $296,564
| Item | Value | Distance |
|---|---|---|
| Rosebud County, MT | $235,637 · +3.5% 1-yr |
Zillow Home Value Index (ZHVI), typical value of homes in the 35th to 65th percentile, smoothed and seasonally adjusted; a model estimate of value, not a sale price. Data through Zillow Research.
Rents #
Zillow publishes no rent index for this area (ZORI covers about 1,400 counties)
- US counties: not published this period
- Montana counties: not published this period
Zillow Observed Rent Index (ZORI), smoothed, all homes and multifamily; price-to-rent = typical home / (typical rent × 12).
What the typical home costs to carry #
Principal and interest of $1,290 a month on $235,637 at 7.28%, against an average weekly wage worth $5,109 a month: 25.2% of one job’s pay.
- payment = P·r / (1 − (1+r)^−n), P = $235,637 × 80% = $188,509, r = 7.28%/12 (Freddie Mac PMMS via FRED, 2026-10-01), n = 360 → $1,290/mo principal and interest
- wage share = payment / (avg weekly wage $1,179 × 52 / 12 = $5,109) = 25% of one average job's pay (BLS QCEW 2026 Q1, all covered jobs)
- years of wages = $235,637 / ($1,179 × 52) = 3.8
The wage is one covered job’s average, not a household’s income, so this is the share of a single paycheque and not a mortgage underwriting ratio.
Estimate. Principal and interest on the typical home with 20% down over 30 years at this week's Freddie Mac average rate; compared with the average weekly wage of all jobs covered by unemployment insurance in the area (BLS QCEW), which is pay per job, not household income.
Jobs & wages #
3,408 jobs at 262 employers (2026 Q1); -5.6% jobs and -5.0% average weekly wage over the year
- 27th pct · 2,331st of 3,221 US counties · median 8,232
- 65th pct · 20th of 56 Montana counties · median 2,560
| Item | Value | Distance |
|---|---|---|
| Rosebud County, MT | 3,408 jobs · $1,179/wk · -5.6% YoY |
| NAICS sector | Jobs | Avg weekly wage | Location quotient | Jobs over the year |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Utilities | 323 | $2,445 | 24.00 | -2.1% |
| Retail trade | 223 | $489 | 0.67 | +0.9% |
| Accommodation and food services | 151 | $283 | 0.49 | -5.0% |
| Other services | 74 | $1,079 | 0.73 | -7.5% |
| Finance and insurance | 47 | $1,041 | 0.34 | +0.0% |
| Administrative and waste services | 42 | $532 | 0.22 | -27.6% |
| Arts, entertainment and recreation | 33 | $377 | 0.59 | +3.1% |
| Professional and technical services | 32 | $1,672 | 0.14 | +14.3% |
| Real estate and rental | 7 | $510 | 0.13 | +0.0% |
| Agriculture, forestry, fishing | withheld | |||
| Mining, oil and gas | withheld | |||
| Construction | withheld |
BLS Quarterly Census of Employment and Wages, all ownerships, total covered employment in the quarter's third month; over-the-year changes as published. Suppressed cells stay blank.
Drought #
D1 moderate drought
Sites found: 5, searched within 0 km of this place’s internal point. That is a disc around a point, not the area itself: sites outside the boundary are included, and sites inside it further than 0 km away are not.
US Drought Monitor current week; the highest class of any polygon containing the point.
Reservoirs #
No reservoir gauges within 150 km (or the camera is above the gauge altitude)
Sites found: 0, searched within 150 km of this place’s internal point. That is a disc around a point, not the area itself: sites outside the boundary are included, and sites inside it further than 150 km away are not.
Σ(capacity × percent full) / Σ capacity over TWDB reservoirs within 150 km. Texas only; elsewhere USGS reservoir elevation/storage is listed without a capacity to normalise by.
Stream gauges #
13 gauges · 0 flooding · 3 with quality panels averaging 58 % · 6 stale
Sites found: 13, searched within 75 km of this place’s internal point. That is a disc around a point, not the area itself: sites outside the boundary are included, and sites inside it further than 75 km away are not.
| Site | Reading | Distance |
|---|---|---|
| Otter Creek at Ashland MT | flow 2.25 ft³/s · quality 0 % (1) · STALE | 72 km |
| Yellowstone River at Forsyth MT | flow 4,220 ft³/s | 11 km |
| Rosebud Creek at Hwy 447 bridge nr Rosebud, MT | flow 11.4 ft³/s · STALE | 14 km |
| Armells Creek near Forsyth MT | flow 0.56 ft³/s · STALE | 14 km |
| Rosebud Creek at mouth near Rosebud MT | flow 0.00 ft³/s · STALE | 18 km |
| Rosebud Creek near Colstrip MT | flow 0.00 ft³/s · STALE | 46 km |
| Tongue R bl Brandenberg bridge nr Ashland MT | flow 137.0 ft³/s · quality 100 % (2) | 50 km |
| Rosebud C Bel Lame Deer C nr Lame Deer MT | flow 12.3 ft³/s | 55 km |
| Bighorn River ab Tullock Cr nr Bighorn MT | flow 1,730 ft³/s | 62 km |
| Tongue River at Miles City, MT | flow 106.0 ft³/s · quality 75 % (2) | 67 km |
USGS latest readings screened against EPA freshwater criteria (DO ≥ 5 mg/L, pH 6.5–9, conductance, turbidity, temperature); NWS flood categories where a NWPS gauge is co-located.
Groundwater #
No USGS monitoring wells within 75 km (or above 1,500 km)
Sites found: 0, searched within 75 km of this place’s internal point. That is a disc around a point, not the area itself: sites outside the boundary are included, and sites inside it further than 75 km away are not.
USGS latest daily water levels. A single latest reading says where the table is, not which way it is moving; select a well for its 365-day trace.
Water stress #
moderate (0.31)
Σ wᵢ·termᵢ / Σ wᵢ = 0.35×0.25 + 0.2×0.42 / 0.55
Banks & federal dollars #
$294.7 m in deposits at 4 offices of 3 banks (SOD June 2026); HHI 4,516, highly concentrated. $91.9 m federal obligations in FY2026 (direct payments $64.8 m, grants $21.4 m), $26,953 per covered job
| Item | Value | Distance |
|---|---|---|
| First State Bank of Forsyth | $143.4 m · 48.6% share · 1 office | |
| First Interstate Bank | $135.7 m · 46.1% share · 2 offices | |
| Opportunity Bank of Montana | $15.6 m · 5.3% share · 1 office | |
| Rosebud, MT | $91.9 m FY2026 · $26,953/job | |
| MULTIPLE RECIPIENTS | $51.0 m · top recipient FY2026 |
| Institution | Deposits | Share | Offices |
|---|---|---|---|
| First State Bank of Forsyth | $143,354,000 | 48.6% | 1 |
| First Interstate Bank | $135,745,000 | 46.1% | 2 |
| Opportunity Bank of Montana | $15,585,000 | 5.3% | 1 |
Deposit concentration is 4,516 across 3 banks, which the 1995 Department of Justice bank merger screen calls highly concentrated.
HHI = Σ (share %)² over 3 banks with deposits in the county = 48.6² + 46.1² + 5.3² = 4,516
FDIC Summary of Deposits: deposits at every insured office as of June 30, annual; HHI is the sum of squared county deposit shares (DOJ 1995 bank merger screen: 1000 / 1800). USAspending: obligations by place of performance for the latest complete federal fiscal year (Oct 1 to Sep 30), what agencies committed, not what they paid out; recipients are legal entities. Per-job divides obligations by BLS QCEW covered employment.
Federal obligations #
USAspending place-of-performance obligations for FY2026, by awarding agency.
| Awarding agency | Obligations |
|---|---|
| Social Security Administration | $42,909,318 |
| Department of the Interior | $12,192,668 |
| Department of Education | $8,410,566 |
| Department of Health and Human Services | $7,327,316 |
| Department of Housing and Urban Development | $5,180,972 |
| Department of Veterans Affairs | $5,171,566 |
| Railroad Retirement Board | $2,531,517 |
| National Science Foundation | $2,500,000 |
| Department of Agriculture | $2,351,227 |
| Department of Justice | $1,499,177 |
| Department of Transportation | $1,308,056 |
| Federal Communications Commission | $255,306 |
That is $26,953 per covered job, against 3,408 jobs in the 2026 Q1 QCEW quarter.
per job = FY2026 obligations $91.9 m / 3,408 covered jobs (BLS QCEW 2026 Q1, all ownerships) = $26,953
USAspending obligations are recorded where the work is performed, so a prime award performed here is counted here even when the recipient is headquartered elsewhere. Recipients are legal entities, never people.
National context, not this county #
These are United States, single-gauge, single-state and port series. None of them is keyed to this county.
| Series | Latest | As of | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Mississippi River at Memphis, stage · ft | not published | not published | |
| Mississippi River at St. Louis, stage · ft | not published | not published | |
| Ohio River at Louisville, stage · ft | 12.69 | 2026-10-05 | +3.3% |
| Missouri River at St. Joseph, stage · ft | not published | not published | |
| Colorado River below Hoover Dam, flow (Hoover releases) · ft³/s | 5,170.00 | 2026-02-05 | -25.3% |
| Texas reservoirs, statewide percent full · % | 72.60 | 2026-10-06 | +0.0% |
| Laredo truck crossings, monthly · trucks | 258,700.00 | 2026-08-01 | -0.4% |
| Los Angeles + Long Beach container volume, annual · TEU | 10,513,167.00 | 2023-01-01 | -13.5% |
| Containerships waiting for a berth, all US ports · ships | 3.00 | 2026-10-06 | -50.0% |
| Shanghai to Los Angeles container rate · $ per 40 ft box | 7,848.00 | 2026-09-01 | +14.9% |
| US diesel retail price · $ per gallon | unavailable | not published | |
| WTI crude oil, spot · $ per barrel | 96.16 | 2026-09-29 | -3.2% |
| 30-year fixed mortgage rate · % | 7.28 | 2026-10-01 | +3.6% |
| Housing starts, annual rate · thousands of units | 1,275.00 | 2026-08-01 | -2.6% |
| Building permits, annual rate · thousands of units | 1,403.00 | 2026-08-01 | -2.1% |
| Case-Shiller US home price index · index, Jan 2000 = 100 | 337.31 | 2026-07-01 | +0.1% |
| Unemployment rate · % | 4.20 | 2026-09-01 | +2.4% |
| US goods and services trade balance, monthly · $ millions | -105,572.00 | 2026-08-01 | -13.7% |
| Retail sales excluding food services, monthly · $ millions | 646,347.00 | 2026-08-01 | +1.1% |
The indicator registry has no county-keyed series and no geographic selection: every entry is national, a named gauge, a single state or a port. They are here as the backdrop the county's own numbers move against, and they are never this county's readings.
What changed #
Rosebud County, MT: 13 findings, 1 at an alert level, 4 at a watch level and 8 noted
alertRosebud County, MT's covered employment is -5.6% against a year earlier, an alert level here: covered employment at least 3 percent below the same quarter a year earlier (BLS QCEW over-the-year percent change, as published; convention chosen for this dashboard, not an official level). The previous published period is not in this table, so this is a standing level rather than a change.
Period 2026 Q1.Show the arithmetic
- test: jobs.yoy.emp = -5.6 <= -3
BLS QCEW over-the-year percent change, as published; convention chosen for this dashboard, not an official level
watchRosebud County, MT's covered employment is -5.6% against a year earlier, a watch level here: covered employment below the same quarter a year earlier (BLS QCEW over-the-year percent change, as published; not an official level). The previous published period is not in this table, so this is a standing level rather than a change.
Period 2026 Q1.Show the arithmetic
- test: jobs.yoy.emp = -5.6 < 0
BLS QCEW over-the-year percent change, as published; not an official level
watchRosebud County, MT's average weekly wage is -5.0% against a year earlier, a watch level here: average weekly wage below the same quarter a year earlier, before inflation (BLS QCEW over-the-year percent change, as published, nominal dollars; convention chosen for this dashboard, not an official level). The previous published period is not in this table, so this is a standing level rather than a change.
Period 2026 Q1.Show the arithmetic
- test: jobs.yoy.avgWeeklyWage = -5 < 0
BLS QCEW over-the-year percent change, as published, nominal dollars; convention chosen for this dashboard, not an official level
watchRosebud County, MT's momentum index is -0.48, a watch level here: momentum index in the cooling band (the cooling band of the momentum index computed here, score at or below -0.25; convention chosen for this dashboard, not an official level). The previous published period is not in this table, so this is a standing level rather than a change.
Period 2026-08.Show the arithmetic
- test: momentum = -0.476035471449027 <= -0.25
- momentum = Σ wᵢ · clip(changeᵢ / scaleᵢ, −1, 1) / Σ wᵢ over the terms present; weights and scales: home value 1-yr change 0.3 (±10%), rent 1-yr change 0.15 (±10%), jobs over-the-year change 0.3 (±3%), avg weekly wage over-the-year change 0.25 (±6%)
the cooling band of the momentum index computed here, score at or below -0.25; convention chosen for this dashboard, not an official level
watchRosebud County, MT's covered employment of 3,408 scores 28 on the 0-to-100 scale across US counties but 65 across Montana counties, a gap of 38 points.
Period 2026 Q1.Show the arithmetic
- 38 = |28 across US counties - 65 across Montana counties|
position among the entities that published this metric this period; not an official level
Read all 12 findings in the full brief
Every finding is produced by a fixed rule table and a fixed sentence for each rule. Nothing here is generated prose.