Toole County, MT
Housing, jobs, water, deposits and federal obligations for this county, each figure with the release it came from. Internal point 48.65, -111.73.
Assembled 2026-10-06. Read the brief.
- 31st pct · 2,110th of 3,063 US counties · median $234,566
- 10th pct · 50th of 56 Montana counties · median $296,564
- 39th pct · 1,857th of 3,063 US counties · median +2.9%
- 25th pct · 42nd of 56 Montana counties · median +4.1%
- US counties: not published this period
- Montana counties: not published this period
- 13th pct · 2,771st of 3,221 US counties · median 8,232
- 45th pct · 31st of 56 Montana counties · median 2,560
- 71st pct · 900th of 3,221 US counties · median $1,039
- 78th pct · 13th of 56 Montana counties · median $996
- 21st pct · 2,397th of 3,063 US counties · median 4.3
- 3rd pct · 54th of 56 Montana counties · median 5.8
Typical home value divided by the average annual wage of one covered job.
A percentile here is a min-max scaling of average rank: the smallest published value in the cohort is 0 and the largest is 100, and tied values share the average of the ranks they span. It is not the share of entities below the value, so 0 means smallest, not none below. Entities that did not publish the metric are outside the cohort entirely and are counted in neither the rank nor its denominator.
Home values #
Typical home $186,384 (Aug 2026), +2.0% over one year, +42.2% over five
- 31st pct · 2,110th of 3,063 US counties · median $234,566
- 10th pct · 50th of 56 Montana counties · median $296,564
| Item | Value | Distance |
|---|---|---|
| Toole County, MT | $186,384 · +2.0% 1-yr |
Zillow Home Value Index (ZHVI), typical value of homes in the 35th to 65th percentile, smoothed and seasonally adjusted; a model estimate of value, not a sale price. Data through Zillow Research.
Rents #
Zillow publishes no rent index for this area (ZORI covers about 1,400 counties)
- US counties: not published this period
- Montana counties: not published this period
Zillow Observed Rent Index (ZORI), smoothed, all homes and multifamily; price-to-rent = typical home / (typical rent × 12).
What the typical home costs to carry #
Principal and interest of $1,020 a month on $186,384 at 7.28%, against an average weekly wage worth $5,048 a month: 20.2% of one job’s pay.
- payment = P·r / (1 − (1+r)^−n), P = $186,384 × 80% = $149,107, r = 7.28%/12 (Freddie Mac PMMS via FRED, 2026-10-01), n = 360 → $1,020/mo principal and interest
- wage share = payment / (avg weekly wage $1,165 × 52 / 12 = $5,048) = 20% of one average job's pay (BLS QCEW 2026 Q1, all covered jobs)
- years of wages = $186,384 / ($1,165 × 52) = 3.1
The wage is one covered job’s average, not a household’s income, so this is the share of a single paycheque and not a mortgage underwriting ratio.
Estimate. Principal and interest on the typical home with 20% down over 30 years at this week's Freddie Mac average rate; compared with the average weekly wage of all jobs covered by unemployment insurance in the area (BLS QCEW), which is pay per job, not household income.
Jobs & wages #
1,757 jobs at 223 employers (2026 Q1); +0.1% jobs and +2.4% average weekly wage over the year
- 13th pct · 2,771st of 3,221 US counties · median 8,232
- 45th pct · 31st of 56 Montana counties · median 2,560
| Item | Value | Distance |
|---|---|---|
| Toole County, MT | 1,757 jobs · $1,165/wk · +0.1% YoY |
| NAICS sector | Jobs | Avg weekly wage | Location quotient | Jobs over the year |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Accommodation and food services | 156 | $399 | 0.99 | -6.0% |
| Retail trade | 153 | $653 | 0.89 | +10.9% |
| Transportation and warehousing | 130 | $1,061 | 1.76 | +0.8% |
| Mining, oil and gas | 66 | $994 | 10.55 | -4.3% |
| Wholesale trade | 63 | $1,349 | 0.94 | -14.9% |
| Utilities | 61 | $2,086 | 8.79 | +1.7% |
| Finance and insurance | 54 | $1,347 | 0.75 | +1.9% |
| Arts, entertainment and recreation | 33 | $476 | 1.14 | +3.1% |
| Real estate and rental | 29 | $494 | 1.08 | +11.5% |
| Other services | 29 | $564 | 0.55 | -6.5% |
| Construction | 28 | $3,178 | 0.30 | +40.0% |
| Manufacturing | 27 | $1,063 | 0.19 | +92.9% |
BLS Quarterly Census of Employment and Wages, all ownerships, total covered employment in the quarter's third month; over-the-year changes as published. Suppressed cells stay blank.
Drought #
No drought class at this point (USDM covers the United States only)
Sites found: 5, searched within 0 km of this place’s internal point. That is a disc around a point, not the area itself: sites outside the boundary are included, and sites inside it further than 0 km away are not.
US Drought Monitor current week; the highest class of any polygon containing the point.
Reservoirs #
No reservoir gauges within 150 km (or the camera is above the gauge altitude)
Sites found: 0, searched within 150 km of this place’s internal point. That is a disc around a point, not the area itself: sites outside the boundary are included, and sites inside it further than 150 km away are not.
Σ(capacity × percent full) / Σ capacity over TWDB reservoirs within 150 km. Texas only; elsewhere USGS reservoir elevation/storage is listed without a capacity to normalise by.
Stream gauges #
9 gauges · 0 flooding · 0 with quality panels · 2 stale
Sites found: 9, searched within 75 km of this place’s internal point. That is a disc around a point, not the area itself: sites outside the boundary are included, and sites inside it further than 75 km away are not.
| Site | Reading | Distance |
|---|---|---|
| Marias River near Shelby MT | flow 227.0 ft³/s | 27 km |
| Willow Creek near Galata, MT | flow 0.00 ft³/s · STALE | 36 km |
| Cut Bank Creek at Cut Bank MT | flow 59.2 ft³/s | 45 km |
| Birch Creek at Bullhead Bridge, nr Valier, MT | flow 26.1 ft³/s | 52 km |
| Verdigris Coulee nr the mouth, nr Milk R, Alberta | flow 0.00 ft³/s · STALE | 52 km |
| Marias River near Chester MT | flow 509.0 ft³/s | 61 km |
| Cut Bank Cr ab Gillam Coulee, nr Sundance, MT | flow 35.6 ft³/s | 63 km |
| Two Medicine River ab Badger Cr, nr Piegan, MT | flow 46.7 ft³/s | 66 km |
| Birch Creek at Robare, MT | flow 20.2 ft³/s | 71 km |
USGS latest readings screened against EPA freshwater criteria (DO ≥ 5 mg/L, pH 6.5–9, conductance, turbidity, temperature); NWS flood categories where a NWPS gauge is co-located.
Groundwater #
1 wells in 1 named aquifer: Upper Cretaceous aquifers
Sites found: 1, searched within 75 km of this place’s internal point. That is a disc around a point, not the area itself: sites outside the boundary are included, and sites inside it further than 75 km away are not.
| Site | Reading | Distance |
|---|---|---|
| Upper Cretaceous aquifers | depth 10.4 ft · 2026-10-05 | 63 km |
USGS latest daily water levels. A single latest reading says where the table is, not which way it is moving; select a well for its 365-day trace.
Water stress #
low (0.00)
Σ wᵢ·termᵢ / Σ wᵢ = 0.35×0.00 / 0.35
Banks & federal dollars #
$184.1 m in deposits at 2 offices of 2 banks (SOD June 2026); HHI 6,881, highly concentrated. $40.7 m federal obligations in FY2026 (direct payments $39.7 m, grants $955,290), $23,169 per covered job
| Item | Value | Distance |
|---|---|---|
| The First State Bank of Shelby | $148.5 m · 80.7% share · 1 office | |
| Independence Bank | $35.6 m · 19.3% share · 1 office | |
| Toole, MT | $40.7 m FY2026 · $23,169/job | |
| MULTIPLE RECIPIENTS | $26.0 m · top recipient FY2026 |
| Institution | Deposits | Share | Offices |
|---|---|---|---|
| The First State Bank of Shelby | $148,476,000 | 80.7% | 1 |
| Independence Bank | $35,589,000 | 19.3% | 1 |
Deposit concentration is 6,881 across 2 banks, which the 1995 Department of Justice bank merger screen calls highly concentrated.
HHI = Σ (share %)² over 2 banks with deposits in the county = 80.7² + 19.3² = 6,881
FDIC Summary of Deposits: deposits at every insured office as of June 30, annual; HHI is the sum of squared county deposit shares (DOJ 1995 bank merger screen: 1000 / 1800). USAspending: obligations by place of performance for the latest complete federal fiscal year (Oct 1 to Sep 30), what agencies committed, not what they paid out; recipients are legal entities. Per-job divides obligations by BLS QCEW covered employment.
Federal obligations #
USAspending place-of-performance obligations for FY2026, by awarding agency.
| Awarding agency | Obligations |
|---|---|
| Social Security Administration | $21,428,796 |
| Department of Agriculture | $13,527,811 |
| Department of Veterans Affairs | $3,781,577 |
| Department of Health and Human Services | $1,129,136 |
| Railroad Retirement Board | $734,150 |
| Department of Housing and Urban Development | $144,095 |
| Federal Communications Commission | $64,618 |
| Department of Education | $29,435 |
| Department of the Interior | $13,921 |
| Department of Transportation | -$145,631 |
That is $23,169 per covered job, against 1,757 jobs in the 2026 Q1 QCEW quarter.
per job = FY2026 obligations $40.7 m / 1,757 covered jobs (BLS QCEW 2026 Q1, all ownerships) = $23,169
USAspending obligations are recorded where the work is performed, so a prime award performed here is counted here even when the recipient is headquartered elsewhere. Recipients are legal entities, never people.
National context, not this county #
These are United States, single-gauge, single-state and port series. None of them is keyed to this county.
| Series | Latest | As of | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Mississippi River at Memphis, stage · ft | not published | not published | |
| Mississippi River at St. Louis, stage · ft | not published | not published | |
| Ohio River at Louisville, stage · ft | 12.69 | 2026-10-05 | +3.3% |
| Missouri River at St. Joseph, stage · ft | not published | not published | |
| Colorado River below Hoover Dam, flow (Hoover releases) · ft³/s | 5,170.00 | 2026-02-05 | -25.3% |
| Texas reservoirs, statewide percent full · % | 72.60 | 2026-10-06 | +0.0% |
| Laredo truck crossings, monthly · trucks | 258,700.00 | 2026-08-01 | -0.4% |
| Los Angeles + Long Beach container volume, annual · TEU | 10,513,167.00 | 2023-01-01 | -13.5% |
| Containerships waiting for a berth, all US ports · ships | 6.00 | 2026-09-22 | -14.3% |
| Shanghai to Los Angeles container rate · $ per 40 ft box | 6,830.00 | 2026-08-01 | +7.4% |
| US diesel retail price · $ per gallon | unavailable | not published | |
| WTI crude oil, spot · $ per barrel | 96.16 | 2026-09-29 | -3.2% |
| 30-year fixed mortgage rate · % | 7.28 | 2026-10-01 | +3.6% |
| Housing starts, annual rate · thousands of units | 1,275.00 | 2026-08-01 | -2.6% |
| Building permits, annual rate · thousands of units | 1,403.00 | 2026-08-01 | -2.1% |
| Case-Shiller US home price index · index, Jan 2000 = 100 | 337.31 | 2026-07-01 | +0.1% |
| Unemployment rate · % | 4.20 | 2026-09-01 | +2.4% |
| US goods and services trade balance, monthly · $ millions | -88,576.00 | 2026-07-01 | -24.4% |
| Retail sales excluding food services, monthly · $ millions | 646,347.00 | 2026-08-01 | +1.1% |
The indicator registry has no county-keyed series and no geographic selection: every entry is national, a named gauge, a single state or a port. They are here as the backdrop the county's own numbers move against, and they are never this county's readings.
What changed #
Toole County, MT: 6 findings, 1 at a watch level and 5 noted
watchToole County, MT's covered employment of 1,757 scores 14 on the 0-to-100 scale across US counties but 45 across Montana counties, a gap of 31 points.
Period 2026 Q1.Show the arithmetic
- 31 = |14 across US counties - 45 across Montana counties|
position among the entities that published this metric this period; not an official level
noteToole County, MT's average weekly wage was 2.4% higher than the same quarter a year earlier in 2026 Q1, on BLS QCEW's published over-the-year change.
Period 2026 Q1.Show the arithmetic
- +2.4 % = BLS QCEW over-the-year percent change for 2026 Q1, as published
- the newest QCEW file carries no year-earlier level, so no move from one level to another is printed
BLS QCEW over-the-year percent change, as published
noteToole County, MT's typical home value rose 0.7% from $185,011 in July 2026 to $186,384 in August 2026, on Zillow ZHVI.
Period 2026-08.Show the arithmetic
- +0.7% = (186384.08582881847 - 185010.82980713143) / 185010.82980713143 × 100
- 186384.08582881847 = Zillow ZHVI, 2026-08
- 185010.82980713143 = Zillow ZHVI, 2026-07
noteToole County, MT's covered employment was 0.1% higher than the same quarter a year earlier in 2026 Q1, on BLS QCEW's published over-the-year change.
Period 2026 Q1.Show the arithmetic
- +0.1 % = BLS QCEW over-the-year percent change for 2026 Q1, as published
- the newest QCEW file carries no year-earlier level, so no move from one level to another is printed
BLS QCEW over-the-year percent change, as published
noteToole County, MT's years of wages of 3.1 ranks 54th of 56 Montana counties, against a median of 5.8.
Period 2026-08.Show the arithmetic
- 4 on the 0-to-100 scale across 56 Montana counties that published yearsOfWages
- typical home value / (average weekly wage × 52); one average covered job, not a household
position among the entities that published this metric this period; not an official level
Read all 6 findings in the full brief
Every finding is produced by a fixed rule table and a fixed sentence for each rule. Nothing here is generated prose.