Orange County, NC
Housing, jobs, water, deposits and federal obligations for this county, each figure with the release it came from. Internal point 36.06, -79.12.
Assembled 2026-10-06. Read the brief.
- 93rd pct · 195th of 3,063 US counties · median $234,566
- 95th pct · 5th of 100 North Carolina counties · median $273,108
- counties in the Durham-Chapel Hill metro: Rank context is unavailable: the manifest lists 4 counties in the Durham-Chapel Hill metro; fewer than 5 is too few to rank.
- 11th pct · 2,718th of 3,063 US counties · median +2.9%
- 6th pct · 94th of 100 North Carolina counties · median +1.1%
- counties in the Durham-Chapel Hill metro: Rank context is unavailable: the manifest lists 4 counties in the Durham-Chapel Hill metro; fewer than 5 is too few to rank.
- 59th pct · 565th of 1,399 US counties · median $1,496
- 56th pct · 28th of 63 North Carolina counties · median $1,573
- counties in the Durham-Chapel Hill metro: Rank context is unavailable: the manifest lists 4 counties in the Durham-Chapel Hill metro; fewer than 5 is too few to rank.
- 88th pct · 369th of 3,221 US counties · median 8,232
- 85th pct · 15th of 100 North Carolina counties · median 16,739
- counties in the Durham-Chapel Hill metro: Rank context is unavailable: the manifest lists 4 counties in the Durham-Chapel Hill metro; fewer than 5 is too few to rank.
- 94th pct · 184th of 3,221 US counties · median $1,039
- 96th pct · 4th of 100 North Carolina counties · median $984
- counties in the Durham-Chapel Hill metro: Rank context is unavailable: the manifest lists 4 counties in the Durham-Chapel Hill metro; fewer than 5 is too few to rank.
- 80th pct · 599th of 3,063 US counties · median 4.3
- 71st pct · 29th of 100 North Carolina counties · median 5.0
- counties in the Durham-Chapel Hill metro: Rank context is unavailable: the manifest lists 4 counties in the Durham-Chapel Hill metro; fewer than 5 is too few to rank.
Typical home value divided by the average annual wage of one covered job.
A percentile here is a min-max scaling of average rank: the smallest published value in the cohort is 0 and the largest is 100, and tied values share the average of the ranks they span. It is not the share of entities below the value, so 0 means smallest, not none below. Entities that did not publish the metric are outside the cohort entirely and are counted in neither the rank nor its denominator.
Home values #
Typical home $503,800 (Aug 2026), -1.7% over one year, +25.4% over five
- 93rd pct · 195th of 3,063 US counties · median $234,566
- 95th pct · 5th of 100 North Carolina counties · median $273,108
- counties in the Durham-Chapel Hill metro: Rank context is unavailable: the manifest lists 4 counties in the Durham-Chapel Hill metro; fewer than 5 is too few to rank.
| Item | Value | Distance |
|---|---|---|
| Orange County, NC | $503,800 · -1.7% 1-yr |
Zillow Home Value Index (ZHVI), typical value of homes in the 35th to 65th percentile, smoothed and seasonally adjusted; a model estimate of value, not a sale price. Data through Zillow Research.
Rents #
Typical rent $1,615/mo (Aug 2026), -0.1% over one year; price-to-rent 26.0
- 59th pct · 565th of 1,399 US counties · median $1,496
- 56th pct · 28th of 63 North Carolina counties · median $1,573
- counties in the Durham-Chapel Hill metro: Rank context is unavailable: the manifest lists 4 counties in the Durham-Chapel Hill metro; fewer than 5 is too few to rank.
| Item | Value | Distance |
|---|---|---|
| Orange County, NC | $1,615/mo · -0.1% 1-yr |
Zillow Observed Rent Index (ZORI), smoothed, all homes and multifamily; price-to-rent = typical home / (typical rent × 12).
What the typical home costs to carry #
Principal and interest of $2,758 a month on $503,800 at 7.28%, against an average weekly wage worth $6,838 a month: 40.3% of one job’s pay.
- payment = P·r / (1 − (1+r)^−n), P = $503,800 × 80% = $403,040, r = 7.28%/12 (Freddie Mac PMMS via FRED, 2026-10-01), n = 360 → $2,758/mo principal and interest
- wage share = payment / (avg weekly wage $1,578 × 52 / 12 = $6,838) = 40% of one average job's pay (BLS QCEW 2026 Q1, all covered jobs)
- years of wages = $503,800 / ($1,578 × 52) = 6.1
- price-to-rent = $503,800 / ($1,615 × 12) = 26.0
The wage is one covered job’s average, not a household’s income, so this is the share of a single paycheque and not a mortgage underwriting ratio.
Estimate. Principal and interest on the typical home with 20% down over 30 years at this week's Freddie Mac average rate; compared with the average weekly wage of all jobs covered by unemployment insurance in the area (BLS QCEW), which is pay per job, not household income.
Jobs & wages #
76,788 jobs at 5,283 employers (2026 Q1); -3.4% jobs and +4.0% average weekly wage over the year
- 88th pct · 369th of 3,221 US counties · median 8,232
- 85th pct · 15th of 100 North Carolina counties · median 16,739
- counties in the Durham-Chapel Hill metro: Rank context is unavailable: the manifest lists 4 counties in the Durham-Chapel Hill metro; fewer than 5 is too few to rank.
| Item | Value | Distance |
|---|---|---|
| Orange County, NC | 76,788 jobs · $1,578/wk · -3.4% YoY |
| NAICS sector | Jobs | Avg weekly wage | Location quotient | Jobs over the year |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Accommodation and food services | 6,524 | $512 | 0.95 | +4.8% |
| Retail trade | 6,280 | $901 | 0.84 | +4.4% |
| Health care and social assistance | 5,036 | $1,125 | 0.44 | -35.1% |
| Professional and technical services | 4,307 | $2,652 | 0.81 | -3.8% |
| Manufacturing | 2,590 | $1,432 | 0.42 | -8.0% |
| Other services | 2,002 | $1,251 | 0.87 | +2.2% |
| Administrative and waste services | 1,594 | $1,285 | 0.37 | -5.2% |
| Educational services | 1,548 | $1,111 | 0.94 | +2.6% |
| Finance and insurance | 1,356 | $6,074 | 0.43 | +5.2% |
| Wholesale trade | 1,143 | $2,092 | 0.39 | +9.8% |
| Arts, entertainment and recreation | 1,007 | $593 | 0.80 | -3.6% |
| Real estate and rental | 685 | $1,345 | 0.58 | -23.1% |
BLS Quarterly Census of Employment and Wages, all ownerships, total covered employment in the quarter's third month; over-the-year changes as published. Suppressed cells stay blank.
Drought #
D1 moderate drought
Sites found: 5, searched within 0 km of this place’s internal point. That is a disc around a point, not the area itself: sites outside the boundary are included, and sites inside it further than 0 km away are not.
US Drought Monitor current week; the highest class of any polygon containing the point.
Reservoirs #
5 USGS reservoir gauges, no capacity figures to weight
Sites found: 5, searched within 150 km of this place’s internal point. That is a disc around a point, not the area itself: sites outside the boundary are included, and sites inside it further than 150 km away are not.
| Site | Reading | Distance |
|---|---|---|
| BEAVERDAM CREEK AT DAM NEAR CREEDMOOR, NC | 248.5 ft (USGS, no capacity on file) | 39 km |
| B. EVERETT JORDAN LAKE AT DAM NR MONCURE, NC | 213.9 ft (USGS, no capacity on file) | 46 km |
| FALLS LAKE ABOVE DAM NR FALLS, NC | 246.6 ft (USGS, no capacity on file) | 50 km |
| HYCO LAKE AT DAM NR ROXBORO, NC | 8.00 ft (USGS, no capacity on file) | 50 km |
| AFTERBAY RESERVOIR AT DAM NR MCGEHEES MILL, NC | 364.6 ft (USGS, no capacity on file) | 52 km |
Σ(capacity × percent full) / Σ capacity over TWDB reservoirs within 150 km. Texas only; elsewhere USGS reservoir elevation/storage is listed without a capacity to normalise by.
Stream gauges #
157 gauges · 0 flooding · 3 with quality panels averaging 96 % · 32 stale
Sites found: 157, searched within 75 km of this place’s internal point. That is a disc around a point, not the area itself: sites outside the boundary are included, and sites inside it further than 75 km away are not.
| Site | Reading | Distance |
|---|---|---|
| SEVENMILE CREEK NR EFLAND, NC | flow 10.0 ft³/s · STALE | 2 km |
| ENO RIVER AT HILLSBOROUGH, NC | flow 3.48 ft³/s · no flooding | 2 km |
| CANE CREEK NEAR ORANGE GROVE, NC | flow 0.10 ft³/s · no flooding | 11 km |
| ENO RIVER AT COLE MILL RD NR HUCKLEBERRY SPRING | stage 1.90 ft · no flooding | 13 km |
| COLLINS CR AB SR 1006 NR WHITE CROSS, NC | flow 0.22 ft³/s · STALE | 15 km |
| BOOKER CREEK AT SR 1751 NEAR CHAPEL HILL, NC | stage 3.76 ft · no flooding | 15 km |
| MORGAN CREEK NEAR WHITE CROSS, NC | flow 0.09 ft³/s · no flooding | 15 km |
| Booker Creek near Chapel Hill | no flooding | 16 km |
| BOLIN CREEK AT VILLAGE DRIVE AT CHAPEL HILL, NC | flow 0.07 ft³/s · no flooding | 16 km |
| COLLINS CREEK AT HWY 54 NEAR WHITE CROSS, NC | flow 0.40 ft³/s · STALE | 16 km |
USGS latest readings screened against EPA freshwater criteria (DO ≥ 5 mg/L, pH 6.5–9, conductance, turbidity, temperature); NWS flood categories where a NWPS gauge is co-located.
Groundwater #
29 wells in 0 named aquifers:
Sites found: 29, searched within 75 km of this place’s internal point. That is a disc around a point, not the area itself: sites outside the boundary are included, and sites inside it further than 75 km away are not.
| Site | Reading | Distance |
|---|---|---|
| USGS-355944079013401 | depth 39.2 ft · 2026-10-05 | 11 km |
| USGS-355522079043001 | depth 46.6 ft · 2012-09-29 | 18 km |
| USGS-354855078553201 | depth 46.8 ft · 2026-10-05 | 33 km |
| USGS-360352078414401 | depth 33.0 ft · 2026-10-05 | 38 km |
| USGS-355659078411401 | depth 99.9 ft · 2012-11-25 | 41 km |
| USGS-355641078410101 | depth 142.2 ft · 2012-03-28 | 41 km |
| USGS-355635078385101 | depth 131.9 ft · 2026-10-05 | 41 km |
| USGS-355717078404001 | depth 45.1 ft · 2012-04-02 | 42 km |
USGS latest daily water levels. A single latest reading says where the table is, not which way it is moving; select a well for its 365-day trace.
Water stress #
low (0.17)
Σ wᵢ·termᵢ / Σ wᵢ = 0.35×0.25 + 0.2×0.04 / 0.55
Banks & federal dollars #
$3.7 bn in deposits at 26 offices of 11 banks (SOD June 2026); HHI 1,659, moderately concentrated. $1.5 bn federal obligations in FY2026 (direct payments $849.7 m, grants $640.3 m), $20,093 per covered job
| Item | Value | Distance |
|---|---|---|
| Truist Bank | $856.7 m · 23.0% share · 4 offices | |
| Bank of America, National Association | $828.6 m · 22.3% share · 3 offices | |
| Wells Fargo Bank, National Association | $788.0 m · 21.2% share · 4 offices | |
| Orange, NC | $1.5 bn FY2026 · $20,093/job | |
| MULTIPLE RECIPIENTS | $751.6 m · top recipient FY2026 |
| Institution | Deposits | Share | Offices |
|---|---|---|---|
| Truist Bank | $856,699,000 | 23.0% | 4 |
| Bank of America, National Association | $828,640,000 | 22.3% | 3 |
| Wells Fargo Bank, National Association | $788,040,000 | 21.2% | 4 |
| Fifth Third Bank, National Association | $269,051,000 | 7.2% | 3 |
| First Horizon Bank | $258,017,000 | 6.9% | 3 |
| JPMorgan Chase Bank, National Association | $205,636,000 | 5.5% | 3 |
| PNC Bank, National Association | $203,981,000 | 5.5% | 2 |
| First-Citizens Bank & Trust Company | $141,916,000 | 3.8% | 1 |
| First National Bank of Pennsylvania | $94,938,000 | 2.6% | 1 |
| Pinnacle Bank | $70,266,000 | 1.9% | 1 |
Deposit concentration is 1,659 across 11 banks, which the 1995 Department of Justice bank merger screen calls moderately concentrated.
HHI = Σ (share %)² over 11 banks with deposits in the county = 23.0² + 22.3² + 21.2² + … (8 more) = 1,659
FDIC Summary of Deposits: deposits at every insured office as of June 30, annual; HHI is the sum of squared county deposit shares (DOJ 1995 bank merger screen: 1000 / 1800). USAspending: obligations by place of performance for the latest complete federal fiscal year (Oct 1 to Sep 30), what agencies committed, not what they paid out; recipients are legal entities. Per-job divides obligations by BLS QCEW covered employment.
Federal obligations #
USAspending place-of-performance obligations for FY2026, by awarding agency.
| Awarding agency | Obligations |
|---|---|
| Social Security Administration | $680,348,739 |
| Department of Health and Human Services | $620,861,581 |
| Department of Veterans Affairs | $85,572,413 |
| Department of Education | $55,089,943 |
| Department of Transportation | $35,313,225 |
| National Science Foundation | $18,977,645 |
| Department of Energy | $15,876,341 |
| Department of Housing and Urban Development | $11,292,998 |
| Department of Defense | $8,306,256 |
| Department of Homeland Security | $2,550,803 |
| Department of Agriculture | $2,076,971 |
| National Aeronautics and Space Administration | $1,884,531 |
That is $20,093 per covered job, against 76,788 jobs in the 2026 Q1 QCEW quarter.
per job = FY2026 obligations $1.5 bn / 76,788 covered jobs (BLS QCEW 2026 Q1, all ownerships) = $20,093
USAspending obligations are recorded where the work is performed, so a prime award performed here is counted here even when the recipient is headquartered elsewhere. Recipients are legal entities, never people.
National context, not this county #
These are United States, single-gauge, single-state and port series. None of them is keyed to this county.
| Series | Latest | As of | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Mississippi River at Memphis, stage · ft | not published | not published | |
| Mississippi River at St. Louis, stage · ft | not published | not published | |
| Ohio River at Louisville, stage · ft | 12.69 | 2026-10-05 | +3.3% |
| Missouri River at St. Joseph, stage · ft | not published | not published | |
| Colorado River below Hoover Dam, flow (Hoover releases) · ft³/s | 5,170.00 | 2026-02-05 | -25.3% |
| Texas reservoirs, statewide percent full · % | 72.60 | 2026-10-06 | +0.0% |
| Laredo truck crossings, monthly · trucks | 258,700.00 | 2026-08-01 | -0.4% |
| Los Angeles + Long Beach container volume, annual · TEU | 10,513,167.00 | 2023-01-01 | -13.5% |
| Containerships waiting for a berth, all US ports · ships | 6.00 | 2026-09-22 | -14.3% |
| Shanghai to Los Angeles container rate · $ per 40 ft box | 6,830.00 | 2026-08-01 | +7.4% |
| US diesel retail price · $ per gallon | unavailable | not published | |
| WTI crude oil, spot · $ per barrel | 96.16 | 2026-09-29 | -3.2% |
| 30-year fixed mortgage rate · % | 7.28 | 2026-10-01 | +3.6% |
| Housing starts, annual rate · thousands of units | 1,275.00 | 2026-08-01 | -2.6% |
| Building permits, annual rate · thousands of units | 1,403.00 | 2026-08-01 | -2.1% |
| Case-Shiller US home price index · index, Jan 2000 = 100 | 337.31 | 2026-07-01 | +0.1% |
| Unemployment rate · % | 4.20 | 2026-09-01 | +2.4% |
| US goods and services trade balance, monthly · $ millions | -88,576.00 | 2026-07-01 | -24.4% |
| Retail sales excluding food services, monthly · $ millions | 646,347.00 | 2026-08-01 | +1.1% |
The indicator registry has no county-keyed series and no geographic selection: every entry is national, a named gauge, a single state or a port. They are here as the backdrop the county's own numbers move against, and they are never this county's readings.
What changed #
Orange County, NC: 18 findings, 1 at an alert level, 4 at a watch level and 13 noted
alertOrange County, NC's covered employment is -3.4% against a year earlier, an alert level here: covered employment at least 3 percent below the same quarter a year earlier (BLS QCEW over-the-year percent change, as published; convention chosen for this dashboard, not an official level). The previous published period is not in this table, so this is a standing level rather than a change.
Period 2026 Q1.Show the arithmetic
- test: jobs.yoy.emp = -3.4 <= -3
BLS QCEW over-the-year percent change, as published; convention chosen for this dashboard, not an official level
watchOrange County, NC's price-to-rent ratio of 26.0 ranks 64th of 1,399 US counties, a watch level here: price-to-rent in the top tenth of US counties (position among the counties that published both ZHVI and ZORI this month; not an official level). The previous published period is not in this table, so this is a standing level rather than a change.
Period 2026-08.Show the arithmetic
- test: priceToRent percentile = 95.49356223175965 >= 90
- typical home value / (typical rent × 12); Zillow ZHVI over ZORI, same month
position among the counties that published both ZHVI and ZORI this month; not an official level
watchOrange County, NC's covered employment is -3.4% against a year earlier, a watch level here: covered employment below the same quarter a year earlier (BLS QCEW over-the-year percent change, as published; not an official level). The previous published period is not in this table, so this is a standing level rather than a change.
Period 2026 Q1.Show the arithmetic
- test: jobs.yoy.emp = -3.4 < 0
BLS QCEW over-the-year percent change, as published; not an official level
watchOrange County, NC's typical home value is -1.7% against a year earlier, a watch level here: typical home value below a year ago (arithmetic on Zillow ZHVI, county and metro files; not an official level). The previous published period is not in this table, so this is a standing level rather than a change.
Period 2026-08.Show the arithmetic
- test: home.yoyPct = -1.737810814760986 < 0
arithmetic on Zillow ZHVI, county and metro files; not an official level
watchOrange County, NC's price-to-rent ratio is 26.0, a watch level here: typical home value worth 25 or more years of typical rent (typical home value / (typical rent × 12), Zillow ZHVI over ZORI, same month; convention chosen for this dashboard, not an official level). The previous published period is not in this table, so this is a standing level rather than a change.
Period 2026-08.Show the arithmetic
- test: priceToRent = 25.999384028676737 >= 25
- typical home value / (typical rent × 12); Zillow ZHVI over ZORI, same month
typical home value / (typical rent × 12), Zillow ZHVI over ZORI, same month; convention chosen for this dashboard, not an official level
Read all 12 findings in the full brief
Every finding is produced by a fixed rule table and a fixed sentence for each rule. Nothing here is generated prose.