Southeast Fairbanks Census Area, AK
Housing, jobs, water, deposits and federal obligations for this county, each figure with the release it came from. Internal point 63.87, -143.22.
Assembled 2026-10-06. Read the brief.
- 66th pct · 1,015th of 3,063 US counties · median $234,566
- 0th pct · 13th of 13 Alaska counties · median $389,805
- 2nd pct · 2,984th of 3,063 US counties · median +2.9%
- 8th pct · 12th of 13 Alaska counties · median +5.4%
- US counties: not published this period
- Alaska counties: not published this period
- 23rd pct · 2,472nd of 3,221 US counties · median 8,232
- 51st pct · 15th of 30 Alaska counties · median 2,486
- 97th pct · 80th of 3,221 US counties · median $1,039
- 93rd pct · 3rd of 30 Alaska counties · median $1,272
- 20th pct · 2,428th of 3,063 US counties · median 4.3
- 8th pct · 12th of 13 Alaska counties · median 5.6
Typical home value divided by the average annual wage of one covered job.
A percentile here is a min-max scaling of average rank: the smallest published value in the cohort is 0 and the largest is 100, and tied values share the average of the ranks they span. It is not the share of entities below the value, so 0 means smallest, not none below. Entities that did not publish the metric are outside the cohort entirely and are counted in neither the rank nor its denominator.
Home values #
Typical home $289,161 (Aug 2026), -7.4% over one year, -4.3% over five
- 66th pct · 1,015th of 3,063 US counties · median $234,566
- 0th pct · 13th of 13 Alaska counties · median $389,805
| Item | Value | Distance |
|---|---|---|
| Southeast Fairbanks Census Area, AK | $289,161 · -7.4% 1-yr |
Zillow Home Value Index (ZHVI), typical value of homes in the 35th to 65th percentile, smoothed and seasonally adjusted; a model estimate of value, not a sale price. Data through Zillow Research.
Rents #
Zillow publishes no rent index for this area (ZORI covers about 1,400 counties)
- US counties: not published this period
- Alaska counties: not published this period
Zillow Observed Rent Index (ZORI), smoothed, all homes and multifamily; price-to-rent = typical home / (typical rent × 12).
What the typical home costs to carry #
Principal and interest of $1,583 a month on $289,161 at 7.28%, against an average weekly wage worth $7,921 a month: 20.0% of one job’s pay.
- payment = P·r / (1 − (1+r)^−n), P = $289,161 × 80% = $231,329, r = 7.28%/12 (Freddie Mac PMMS via FRED, 2026-10-01), n = 360 → $1,583/mo principal and interest
- wage share = payment / (avg weekly wage $1,828 × 52 / 12 = $7,921) = 20% of one average job's pay (BLS QCEW 2026 Q1, all covered jobs)
- years of wages = $289,161 / ($1,828 × 52) = 3.0
The wage is one covered job’s average, not a household’s income, so this is the share of a single paycheque and not a mortgage underwriting ratio.
Estimate. Principal and interest on the typical home with 20% down over 30 years at this week's Freddie Mac average rate; compared with the average weekly wage of all jobs covered by unemployment insurance in the area (BLS QCEW), which is pay per job, not household income.
Jobs & wages #
2,860 jobs at 254 employers (2026 Q1); -3.9% jobs and +2.8% average weekly wage over the year
- 23rd pct · 2,472nd of 3,221 US counties · median 8,232
- 51st pct · 15th of 30 Alaska counties · median 2,486
| Item | Value | Distance |
|---|---|---|
| Southeast Fairbanks Census Area, AK | 2,860 jobs · $1,828/wk · -3.9% YoY |
| NAICS sector | Jobs | Avg weekly wage | Location quotient | Jobs over the year |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Retail trade | 241 | $725 | 0.86 | +14.8% |
| Professional and technical services | 193 | $2,087 | 0.98 | -3.5% |
| Transportation and warehousing | 126 | $1,998 | 1.05 | +2.4% |
| Manufacturing | 73 | $1,849 | 0.32 | +114.7% |
| Construction | 63 | $1,622 | 0.42 | -14.9% |
| Other services | 54 | $1,509 | 0.63 | +58.8% |
| Finance and insurance | 19 | $1,950 | 0.16 | +11.8% |
| Information | 14 | $775 | 0.27 | -22.2% |
| Real estate and rental | 13 | $753 | 0.30 | -7.1% |
| Unclassified | 7 | $1,372 | 1.15 | +16.7% |
| Agriculture, forestry, fishing | withheld | |||
| Mining, oil and gas | withheld |
BLS Quarterly Census of Employment and Wages, all ownerships, total covered employment in the quarter's third month; over-the-year changes as published. Suppressed cells stay blank.
Drought #
D1 moderate drought
Sites found: 5, searched within 0 km of this place’s internal point. That is a disc around a point, not the area itself: sites outside the boundary are included, and sites inside it further than 0 km away are not.
US Drought Monitor current week; the highest class of any polygon containing the point.
Reservoirs #
Surface water layer not loaded
Sites found: 0, searched within 150 km of this place’s internal point. That is a disc around a point, not the area itself: sites outside the boundary are included, and sites inside it further than 150 km away are not.
Σ(capacity × percent full) / Σ capacity over TWDB reservoirs within 150 km. Texas only; elsewhere USGS reservoir elevation/storage is listed without a capacity to normalise by.
Stream gauges #
Surface water layer not loaded
Sites found: 0, searched within 75 km of this place’s internal point. That is a disc around a point, not the area itself: sites outside the boundary are included, and sites inside it further than 75 km away are not.
USGS latest readings screened against EPA freshwater criteria (DO ≥ 5 mg/L, pH 6.5–9, conductance, turbidity, temperature); NWS flood categories where a NWPS gauge is co-located.
Groundwater #
No USGS monitoring wells within 75 km (or above 1,500 km)
Sites found: 0, searched within 75 km of this place’s internal point. That is a disc around a point, not the area itself: sites outside the boundary are included, and sites inside it further than 75 km away are not.
USGS latest daily water levels. A single latest reading says where the table is, not which way it is moving; select a well for its 365-day trace.
Water stress #
moderate (0.25)
Σ wᵢ·termᵢ / Σ wᵢ = 0.35×0.25 / 0.35
Banks & federal dollars #
$116.5 m in deposits at 3 offices of 3 banks (SOD June 2026); HHI 3,403, highly concentrated. $589.6 m federal obligations in FY2026 (contracts $527.7 m, direct payments $44.7 m), $206,165 per covered job
| Item | Value | Distance |
|---|---|---|
| Wells Fargo Bank, National Association | $46.6 m · 40.0% share · 1 office | |
| Mt. McKinley Bank | $36.1 m · 31.0% share · 1 office | |
| Denali State Bank | $33.7 m · 28.9% share · 1 office | |
| Southeast Fairbanks, AK | $589.6 m FY2026 · $206,165/job | |
| DAVIS CONSTRUCTORS & ENGINEERS, INC. | $469.9 m · top recipient FY2026 |
| Institution | Deposits | Share | Offices |
|---|---|---|---|
| Wells Fargo Bank, National Association | $46,648,000 | 40.0% | 1 |
| Mt. McKinley Bank | $36,149,000 | 31.0% | 1 |
| Denali State Bank | $33,712,000 | 28.9% | 1 |
Deposit concentration is 3,403 across 3 banks, which the 1995 Department of Justice bank merger screen calls highly concentrated.
HHI = Σ (share %)² over 3 banks with deposits in the county = 40.0² + 31.0² + 28.9² = 3,403
FDIC Summary of Deposits: deposits at every insured office as of June 30, annual; HHI is the sum of squared county deposit shares (DOJ 1995 bank merger screen: 1000 / 1800). USAspending: obligations by place of performance for the latest complete federal fiscal year (Oct 1 to Sep 30), what agencies committed, not what they paid out; recipients are legal entities. Per-job divides obligations by BLS QCEW covered employment.
Federal obligations #
USAspending place-of-performance obligations for FY2026, by awarding agency.
| Awarding agency | Obligations |
|---|---|
| General Services Administration | $472,345,255 |
| Department of Defense | $54,151,826 |
| Social Security Administration | $28,342,903 |
| Department of Transportation | $14,109,502 |
| Department of Veterans Affairs | $12,225,386 |
| Department of the Interior | $2,864,307 |
| Federal Communications Commission | $2,458,585 |
| Department of Education | $1,730,791 |
| Department of Justice | $598,363 |
| Environmental Protection Agency | $413,998 |
| Department of Agriculture | $304,143 |
| Department of Health and Human Services | $47,305 |
That is $206,165 per covered job, against 2,860 jobs in the 2026 Q1 QCEW quarter.
per job = FY2026 obligations $589.6 m / 2,860 covered jobs (BLS QCEW 2026 Q1, all ownerships) = $206,165
USAspending obligations are recorded where the work is performed, so a prime award performed here is counted here even when the recipient is headquartered elsewhere. Recipients are legal entities, never people.
National context, not this county #
These are United States, single-gauge, single-state and port series. None of them is keyed to this county.
| Series | Latest | As of | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Mississippi River at Memphis, stage · ft | not published | not published | |
| Mississippi River at St. Louis, stage · ft | not published | not published | |
| Ohio River at Louisville, stage · ft | 12.28 | 2026-10-04 | -0.1% |
| Missouri River at St. Joseph, stage · ft | not published | not published | |
| Colorado River below Hoover Dam, flow (Hoover releases) · ft³/s | 5,170.00 | 2026-02-05 | -25.3% |
| Texas reservoirs, statewide percent full · % | 72.60 | 2026-10-05 | +0.1% |
| Laredo truck crossings, monthly · trucks | 258,700.00 | 2026-08-01 | -0.4% |
| Los Angeles + Long Beach container volume, annual · TEU | 10,513,167.00 | 2023-01-01 | -13.5% |
| Containerships waiting for a berth, all US ports · ships | 6.00 | 2026-09-22 | -14.3% |
| Shanghai to Los Angeles container rate · $ per 40 ft box | 6,830.00 | 2026-08-01 | +7.4% |
| US diesel retail price · $ per gallon | unavailable | not published | |
| WTI crude oil, spot · $ per barrel | 96.16 | 2026-09-29 | -3.2% |
| 30-year fixed mortgage rate · % | 7.28 | 2026-10-01 | +3.6% |
| Housing starts, annual rate · thousands of units | 1,275.00 | 2026-08-01 | -2.6% |
| Building permits, annual rate · thousands of units | 1,403.00 | 2026-08-01 | -2.1% |
| Case-Shiller US home price index · index, Jan 2000 = 100 | 337.31 | 2026-07-01 | +0.1% |
| Unemployment rate · % | 4.20 | 2026-09-01 | +2.4% |
| US goods and services trade balance, monthly · $ millions | -88,576.00 | 2026-07-01 | -24.4% |
| Retail sales excluding food services, monthly · $ millions | 646,347.00 | 2026-08-01 | +1.1% |
The indicator registry has no county-keyed series and no geographic selection: every entry is national, a named gauge, a single state or a port. They are here as the backdrop the county's own numbers move against, and they are never this county's readings.
What changed #
Southeast Fairbanks Census Area, AK: 18 findings, 2 at an alert level, 4 at a watch level and 12 noted
alertSoutheast Fairbanks Census Area, AK's typical home value is -7.4% against a year earlier, an alert level here: typical home value at least 5 percent below a year ago (arithmetic on Zillow ZHVI, county and metro files; convention chosen for this dashboard, not an official level). The previous published period is not in this table, so this is a standing level rather than a change.
Period 2026-08.Show the arithmetic
- test: home.yoyPct = -7.408027143471142 <= -5
arithmetic on Zillow ZHVI, county and metro files; convention chosen for this dashboard, not an official level
alertSoutheast Fairbanks Census Area, AK's covered employment is -3.9% against a year earlier, an alert level here: covered employment at least 3 percent below the same quarter a year earlier (BLS QCEW over-the-year percent change, as published; convention chosen for this dashboard, not an official level). The previous published period is not in this table, so this is a standing level rather than a change.
Period 2026 Q1.Show the arithmetic
- test: jobs.yoy.emp = -3.9 <= -3
BLS QCEW over-the-year percent change, as published; convention chosen for this dashboard, not an official level
watchSoutheast Fairbanks Census Area, AK's typical home value is -7.4% against a year earlier, a watch level here: typical home value below a year ago (arithmetic on Zillow ZHVI, county and metro files; not an official level). The previous published period is not in this table, so this is a standing level rather than a change.
Period 2026-08.Show the arithmetic
- test: home.yoyPct = -7.408027143471142 < 0
arithmetic on Zillow ZHVI, county and metro files; not an official level
watchSoutheast Fairbanks Census Area, AK's covered employment is -3.9% against a year earlier, a watch level here: covered employment below the same quarter a year earlier (BLS QCEW over-the-year percent change, as published; not an official level). The previous published period is not in this table, so this is a standing level rather than a change.
Period 2026 Q1.Show the arithmetic
- test: jobs.yoy.emp = -3.9 < 0
BLS QCEW over-the-year percent change, as published; not an official level
watchSoutheast Fairbanks Census Area, AK's momentum index is -0.48, a watch level here: momentum index in the cooling band (the cooling band of the momentum index computed here, score at or below -0.25; convention chosen for this dashboard, not an official level). The previous published period is not in this table, so this is a standing level rather than a change.
Period 2026-08.Show the arithmetic
- test: momentum = -0.47714605604407956 <= -0.25
- momentum = Σ wᵢ · clip(changeᵢ / scaleᵢ, −1, 1) / Σ wᵢ over the terms present; weights and scales: home value 1-yr change 0.3 (±10%), rent 1-yr change 0.15 (±10%), jobs over-the-year change 0.3 (±3%), avg weekly wage over-the-year change 0.25 (±6%)
the cooling band of the momentum index computed here, score at or below -0.25; convention chosen for this dashboard, not an official level
Read all 12 findings in the full brief
Every finding is produced by a fixed rule table and a fixed sentence for each rule. Nothing here is generated prose.