Marin County, CA

Home values #

Typical home $1.5 m (Aug 2026), +4.3% over one year, +7.2% over five

• 99th pct · 8th of 3,063 US counties · median $234,566
• 96th pct · 3rd of 58 California counties · median $500,264
• 75th pct · 2nd of 5 counties in the San Francisco-Oakland-Fremont metro · median $1,424,486

Zillow Home Value Index (ZHVI), typical value of homes in the 35th to 65th percentile, smoothed and seasonally adjusted; a model estimate of value, not a sale price. Data through Zillow Research.

Rents #

Typical rent $3,880/mo (Aug 2026), +7.5% over one year; price-to-rent 31.5

• 99th pct · 6th of 1,399 US counties · median $1,496
• 95th pct · 3rd of 49 California counties · median $2,340
• 50th pct · 3rd of 5 counties in the San Francisco-Oakland-Fremont metro · median $3,880

Zillow Observed Rent Index (ZORI), smoothed, all homes and multifamily; price-to-rent = typical home / (typical rent × 12).

What the typical home costs to carry #

Principal and interest of $8,017 a month on $1,464,630 at 7.28%, against an average weekly wage worth $8,580 a month: 93.4% of one job’s pay.

• payment = P·r / (1 − (1+r)^−n), P = $1.5 m × 80% = $1.2 m, r = 7.28%/12 (Freddie Mac PMMS via FRED, 2026-10-01), n = 360 → $8,017/mo principal and interest
• wage share = payment / (avg weekly wage $1,980 × 52 / 12 = $8,580) = 93% of one average job's pay (BLS QCEW 2026 Q1, all covered jobs)
• years of wages = $1.5 m / ($1,980 × 52) = 14.2
• price-to-rent = $1.5 m / ($3,880 × 12) = 31.5

The wage is one covered job’s average, not a household’s income, so this is the share of a single paycheque and not a mortgage underwriting ratio.

Estimate. Principal and interest on the typical home with 20% down over 30 years at this week's Freddie Mac average rate; compared with the average weekly wage of all jobs covered by unemployment insurance in the area (BLS QCEW), which is pay per job, not household income.

Jobs & wages #

108,858 jobs at 13,576 employers (2026 Q1); -0.1% jobs and +0.7% average weekly wage over the year

• 91st pct · 278th of 3,221 US counties · median 8,232
• 59th pct · 24th of 58 California counties · median 74,865
• 0th pct · 5th of 5 counties in the San Francisco-Oakland-Fremont metro · median 413,139

BLS Quarterly Census of Employment and Wages, all ownerships, total covered employment in the quarter's third month; over-the-year changes as published. Suppressed cells stay blank.

Drought #

No drought class at this point (USDM covers the United States only)

Sites found: 5, searched within 0 km of this place’s internal point. That is a disc around a point, not the area itself: sites outside the boundary are included, and sites inside it further than 0 km away are not.

US Drought Monitor current week; the highest class of any polygon containing the point.

Reservoirs #

1 USGS reservoir gauges, no capacity figures to weight

Sites found: 1, searched within 150 km of this place’s internal point. That is a disc around a point, not the area itself: sites outside the boundary are included, and sites inside it further than 150 km away are not.

Σ(capacity × percent full) / Σ capacity over TWDB reservoirs within 150 km. Texas only; elsewhere USGS reservoir elevation/storage is listed without a capacity to normalise by.

Stream gauges #

87 gauges · 0 flooding · 40 with quality panels averaging 77 % · 28 stale

Sites found: 87, searched within 75 km of this place’s internal point. That is a disc around a point, not the area itself: sites outside the boundary are included, and sites inside it further than 75 km away are not.

USGS latest readings screened against EPA freshwater criteria (DO ≥ 5 mg/L, pH 6.5–9, conductance, turbidity, temperature); NWS flood categories where a NWPS gauge is co-located.

Groundwater #

6 wells in 0 named aquifers:

Sites found: 6, searched within 75 km of this place’s internal point. That is a disc around a point, not the area itself: sites outside the boundary are included, and sites inside it further than 75 km away are not.

USGS latest daily water levels. A single latest reading says where the table is, not which way it is moving; select a well for its 365-day trace.

Water stress #

low (0.08)

Σ wᵢ·termᵢ / Σ wᵢ = 0.35×0.00 + 0.2×0.23 / 0.55

Banks & federal dollars #

$16.2 bn in deposits at 68 offices of 18 banks (SOD June 2026); HHI 1,348, moderately concentrated. $2.0 bn federal obligations in FY2026 (direct payments $1.8 bn, grants $170.9 m), $18,100 per covered job

Deposit concentration is 1,348 across 18 banks, which the 1995 Department of Justice bank merger screen calls moderately concentrated.

HHI = Σ (share %)² over 18 banks with deposits in the county = 19.3² + 18.4² + 16.5² + … (15 more) = 1,348

FDIC Summary of Deposits: deposits at every insured office as of June 30, annual; HHI is the sum of squared county deposit shares (DOJ 1995 bank merger screen: 1000 / 1800). USAspending: obligations by place of performance for the latest complete federal fiscal year (Oct 1 to Sep 30), what agencies committed, not what they paid out; recipients are legal entities. Per-job divides obligations by BLS QCEW covered employment.

Federal obligations #

USAspending place-of-performance obligations for FY2026, by awarding agency.

That is $18,100 per covered job, against 108,858 jobs in the 2026 Q1 QCEW quarter.

per job = FY2026 obligations $2.0 bn / 108,858 covered jobs (BLS QCEW 2026 Q1, all ownerships) = $18,100

USAspending obligations are recorded where the work is performed, so a prime award performed here is counted here even when the recipient is headquartered elsewhere. Recipients are legal entities, never people.

National context, not this county #

These are United States, single-gauge, single-state and port series. None of them is keyed to this county.

The indicator registry has no county-keyed series and no geographic selection: every entry is national, a named gauge, a single state or a port. They are here as the backdrop the county's own numbers move against, and they are never this county's readings.

What changed #

Marin County, CA: 21 findings, 6 at a watch level and 15 noted

1. watchMarin County, CA's years of wages of 14.2 ranks 21st of 3,063 US counties, a watch level here: years of wages in the top tenth of US counties (position among the counties that published both a ZHVI value and a QCEW average weekly wage; not an official level). The previous published period is not in this table, so this is a standing level rather than a change.

   Period 2026-08.
   Show the arithmetic

   • test: yearsOfWages percentile = 99.34683213585892 >= 90
   • typical home value / (average weekly wage × 52); one average covered job, not a household

   position among the counties that published both a ZHVI value and a QCEW average weekly wage; not an official level

2. watchMarin County, CA's price-to-rent ratio of 31.5 ranks 15th of 1,399 US counties, a watch level here: price-to-rent in the top tenth of US counties (position among the counties that published both ZHVI and ZORI this month; not an official level). The previous published period is not in this table, so this is a standing level rather than a change.

   Period 2026-08.
   Show the arithmetic

   • test: priceToRent percentile = 98.99856938483548 >= 90
   • typical home value / (typical rent × 12); Zillow ZHVI over ZORI, same month

   position among the counties that published both ZHVI and ZORI this month; not an official level

3. watchMarin County, CA's price-to-rent ratio is 31.5, a watch level here: typical home value worth 25 or more years of typical rent (typical home value / (typical rent × 12), Zillow ZHVI over ZORI, same month; convention chosen for this dashboard, not an official level). The previous published period is not in this table, so this is a standing level rather than a change.

   Period 2026-08.
   Show the arithmetic

   • test: priceToRent = 31.453789098132887 >= 25
   • typical home value / (typical rent × 12); Zillow ZHVI over ZORI, same month

   typical home value / (typical rent × 12), Zillow ZHVI over ZORI, same month; convention chosen for this dashboard, not an official level

4. watchMarin County, CA's years of wages is 14.2, a watch level here: typical home value worth 10 or more years of one average covered wage (typical home value / (average weekly wage × 52), one average covered job rather than a household; convention chosen for this dashboard, not an official level). The previous published period is not in this table, so this is a standing level rather than a change.

   Period 2026-08.
   Show the arithmetic

   • test: yearsOfWages = 14.225234176869854 >= 10
   • typical home value / (average weekly wage × 52); one average covered job, not a household

   typical home value / (average weekly wage × 52), one average covered job rather than a household; convention chosen for this dashboard, not an official level

5. watchMarin County, CA's covered employment is -0.1% against a year earlier, a watch level here: covered employment below the same quarter a year earlier (BLS QCEW over-the-year percent change, as published; not an official level). The previous published period is not in this table, so this is a standing level rather than a change.

   Period 2026 Q1.
   Show the arithmetic

   • test: jobs.yoy.emp = -0.1 < 0

   BLS QCEW over-the-year percent change, as published; not an official level

Read all 12 findings in the full brief

Every finding is produced by a fixed rule table and a fixed sentence for each rule. Nothing here is generated prose.