Clay County, FL

Home values #

Typical home $336,192 (Aug 2026), -0.5% over one year, +19.0% over five

• 76th pct · 708th of 3,063 US counties · median $234,566
• 59th pct · 28th of 67 Florida counties · median $307,929
• 50th pct · 3rd of 5 counties in the Jacksonville metro · median $336,192

Zillow Home Value Index (ZHVI), typical value of homes in the 35th to 65th percentile, smoothed and seasonally adjusted; a model estimate of value, not a sale price. Data through Zillow Research.

Rents #

Typical rent $1,835/mo (Aug 2026), +1.3% over one year; price-to-rent 15.3

• 75th pct · 341st of 1,399 US counties · median $1,496
• 30th pct · 33rd of 47 Florida counties · median $1,898
• counties in the Jacksonville metro: only 4 of counties in the Jacksonville metro published this metric; fewer than 5 is too few to rank

Zillow Observed Rent Index (ZORI), smoothed, all homes and multifamily; price-to-rent = typical home / (typical rent × 12).

What the typical home costs to carry #

Principal and interest of $1,840 a month on $336,192 at 7.28%, against an average weekly wage worth $5,061 a month: 36.4% of one job’s pay.

• payment = P·r / (1 − (1+r)^−n), P = $336,192 × 80% = $268,953, r = 7.28%/12 (Freddie Mac PMMS via FRED, 2026-10-01), n = 360 → $1,840/mo principal and interest
• wage share = payment / (avg weekly wage $1,168 × 52 / 12 = $5,061) = 36% of one average job's pay (BLS QCEW 2026 Q1, all covered jobs)
• years of wages = $336,192 / ($1,168 × 52) = 5.5
• price-to-rent = $336,192 / ($1,835 × 12) = 15.3

The wage is one covered job’s average, not a household’s income, so this is the share of a single paycheque and not a mortgage underwriting ratio.

Estimate. Principal and interest on the typical home with 20% down over 30 years at this week's Freddie Mac average rate; compared with the average weekly wage of all jobs covered by unemployment insurance in the area (BLS QCEW), which is pay per job, not household income.

Jobs & wages #

57,315 jobs at 5,544 employers (2026 Q1); -1.6% jobs and -8.9% average weekly wage over the year

• 85th pct · 463rd of 3,221 US counties · median 8,232
• 56th pct · 30th of 67 Florida counties · median 43,443
• 50th pct · 3rd of 5 counties in the Jacksonville metro · median 57,315

BLS Quarterly Census of Employment and Wages, all ownerships, total covered employment in the quarter's third month; over-the-year changes as published. Suppressed cells stay blank.

Drought #

D1 moderate drought

Sites found: 5, searched within 0 km of this place’s internal point. That is a disc around a point, not the area itself: sites outside the boundary are included, and sites inside it further than 0 km away are not.

US Drought Monitor current week; the highest class of any polygon containing the point.

Reservoirs #

No reservoir gauges within 150 km (or the camera is above the gauge altitude)

Sites found: 0, searched within 150 km of this place’s internal point. That is a disc around a point, not the area itself: sites outside the boundary are included, and sites inside it further than 150 km away are not.

Σ(capacity × percent full) / Σ capacity over TWDB reservoirs within 150 km. Texas only; elsewhere USGS reservoir elevation/storage is listed without a capacity to normalise by.

Stream gauges #

92 gauges · 1 flooding · 25 with quality panels averaging 66 % · 10 stale

Sites found: 92, searched within 75 km of this place’s internal point. That is a disc around a point, not the area itself: sites outside the boundary are included, and sites inside it further than 75 km away are not.

USGS latest readings screened against EPA freshwater criteria (DO ≥ 5 mg/L, pH 6.5–9, conductance, turbidity, temperature); NWS flood categories where a NWPS gauge is co-located.

Groundwater #

17 wells in 3 named aquifers: Floridan aquifer system, Intermediate aquifer system, Surficial aquifer system

Sites found: 17, searched within 75 km of this place’s internal point. That is a disc around a point, not the area itself: sites outside the boundary are included, and sites inside it further than 75 km away are not.

USGS latest daily water levels. A single latest reading says where the table is, not which way it is moving; select a well for its 365-day trace.

Water stress #

moderate (0.28)

Σ wᵢ·termᵢ / Σ wᵢ = 0.35×0.25 + 0.2×0.34 / 0.55

Banks & federal dollars #

$1.8 bn in deposits at 20 offices of 10 banks (SOD June 2026); HHI 1,572, moderately concentrated. $1.9 bn federal obligations in FY2026 (direct payments $1.9 bn, grants $17.6 m), $33,138 per covered job

Deposit concentration is 1,572 across 10 banks, which the 1995 Department of Justice bank merger screen calls moderately concentrated.

HHI = Σ (share %)² over 10 banks with deposits in the county = 25.5² + 20.8² + 14.5² + … (7 more) = 1,572

FDIC Summary of Deposits: deposits at every insured office as of June 30, annual; HHI is the sum of squared county deposit shares (DOJ 1995 bank merger screen: 1000 / 1800). USAspending: obligations by place of performance for the latest complete federal fiscal year (Oct 1 to Sep 30), what agencies committed, not what they paid out; recipients are legal entities. Per-job divides obligations by BLS QCEW covered employment.

Federal obligations #

USAspending place-of-performance obligations for FY2026, by awarding agency.

That is $33,138 per covered job, against 57,315 jobs in the 2026 Q1 QCEW quarter.

per job = FY2026 obligations $1.9 bn / 57,315 covered jobs (BLS QCEW 2026 Q1, all ownerships) = $33,138

USAspending obligations are recorded where the work is performed, so a prime award performed here is counted here even when the recipient is headquartered elsewhere. Recipients are legal entities, never people.

National context, not this county #

These are United States, single-gauge, single-state and port series. None of them is keyed to this county.

The indicator registry has no county-keyed series and no geographic selection: every entry is national, a named gauge, a single state or a port. They are here as the backdrop the county's own numbers move against, and they are never this county's readings.

What changed #

Clay County, FL: 15 findings, 6 at a watch level and 9 noted

1. watchClay County, FL's average weekly wage is -8.9% against a year earlier, a watch level here: average weekly wage below the same quarter a year earlier, before inflation (BLS QCEW over-the-year percent change, as published, nominal dollars; convention chosen for this dashboard, not an official level). The previous published period is not in this table, so this is a standing level rather than a change.

   Period 2026 Q1.
   Show the arithmetic

   • test: jobs.yoy.avgWeeklyWage = -8.9 < 0

   BLS QCEW over-the-year percent change, as published, nominal dollars; convention chosen for this dashboard, not an official level

2. watchClay County, FL's covered employment is -1.6% against a year earlier, a watch level here: covered employment below the same quarter a year earlier (BLS QCEW over-the-year percent change, as published; not an official level). The previous published period is not in this table, so this is a standing level rather than a change.

   Period 2026 Q1.
   Show the arithmetic

   • test: jobs.yoy.emp = -1.6 < 0

   BLS QCEW over-the-year percent change, as published; not an official level

3. watchClay County, FL's typical home value is -0.5% against a year earlier, a watch level here: typical home value below a year ago (arithmetic on Zillow ZHVI, county and metro files; not an official level). The previous published period is not in this table, so this is a standing level rather than a change.

   Period 2026-08.
   Show the arithmetic

   • test: home.yoyPct = -0.5492389500795422 < 0

   arithmetic on Zillow ZHVI, county and metro files; not an official level

4. watchClay County, FL's momentum index is -0.41, a watch level here: momentum index in the cooling band (the cooling band of the momentum index computed here, score at or below -0.25; convention chosen for this dashboard, not an official level). The previous published period is not in this table, so this is a standing level rather than a change.

   Period 2026-08.
   Show the arithmetic

   • test: momentum = -0.4073532097674807 <= -0.25
   • momentum = Σ wᵢ · clip(changeᵢ / scaleᵢ, −1, 1) / Σ wᵢ over the terms present; weights and scales: home value 1-yr change 0.3 (±10%), rent 1-yr change 0.15 (±10%), jobs over-the-year change 0.3 (±3%), avg weekly wage over-the-year change 0.25 (±6%)

   the cooling band of the momentum index computed here, score at or below -0.25; convention chosen for this dashboard, not an official level

5. watchClay County, FL's typical asking rent of $1,835 scores 76 on the 0-to-100 scale across US counties but 30 across Florida counties, a gap of 45 points.

   Period 2026-08.
   Show the arithmetic

   • 45 = |76 across US counties - 30 across Florida counties|

   position among the entities that published this metric this period; not an official level

Read all 12 findings in the full brief

Every finding is produced by a fixed rule table and a fixed sentence for each rule. Nothing here is generated prose.