Shelby County, IL

Home values #

Typical home $168,224 (Aug 2026), +5.3% over one year, +24.6% over five

• 22nd pct · 2,361st of 3,063 US counties · median $234,566
• 58th pct · 43rd of 102 Illinois counties · median $158,585

Zillow Home Value Index (ZHVI), typical value of homes in the 35th to 65th percentile, smoothed and seasonally adjusted; a model estimate of value, not a sale price. Data through Zillow Research.

Rents #

Zillow publishes no rent index for this area (ZORI covers about 1,400 counties)

• US counties: not published this period
• Illinois counties: not published this period

Zillow Observed Rent Index (ZORI), smoothed, all homes and multifamily; price-to-rent = typical home / (typical rent × 12).

What the typical home costs to carry #

Principal and interest of $921 a month on $168,224 at 7.28%, against an average weekly wage worth $4,173 a month: 22.1% of one job’s pay.

• payment = P·r / (1 − (1+r)^−n), P = $168,224 × 80% = $134,579, r = 7.28%/12 (Freddie Mac PMMS via FRED, 2026-10-01), n = 360 → $921/mo principal and interest
• wage share = payment / (avg weekly wage $963 × 52 / 12 = $4,173) = 22% of one average job's pay (BLS QCEW 2026 Q1, all covered jobs)
• years of wages = $168,224 / ($963 × 52) = 3.4

The wage is one covered job’s average, not a household’s income, so this is the share of a single paycheque and not a mortgage underwriting ratio.

Estimate. Principal and interest on the typical home with 20% down over 30 years at this week's Freddie Mac average rate; compared with the average weekly wage of all jobs covered by unemployment insurance in the area (BLS QCEW), which is pay per job, not household income.

Jobs & wages #

4,767 jobs at 476 employers (2026 Q1); -2.1% jobs and +5.4% average weekly wage over the year

• 35th pct · 2,062nd of 3,221 US counties · median 8,232
• 34th pct · 67th of 102 Illinois counties · median 7,611

BLS Quarterly Census of Employment and Wages, all ownerships, total covered employment in the quarter's third month; over-the-year changes as published. Suppressed cells stay blank.

Drought #

D0 abnormally dry

Sites found: 5, searched within 0 km of this place’s internal point. That is a disc around a point, not the area itself: sites outside the boundary are included, and sites inside it further than 0 km away are not.

US Drought Monitor current week; the highest class of any polygon containing the point.

Reservoirs #

No reservoir gauges within 150 km (or the camera is above the gauge altitude)

Sites found: 0, searched within 150 km of this place’s internal point. That is a disc around a point, not the area itself: sites outside the boundary are included, and sites inside it further than 150 km away are not.

Σ(capacity × percent full) / Σ capacity over TWDB reservoirs within 150 km. Texas only; elsewhere USGS reservoir elevation/storage is listed without a capacity to normalise by.

Stream gauges #

24 gauges · 0 flooding · 5 with quality panels averaging 100 % · 5 stale

Sites found: 24, searched within 75 km of this place’s internal point. That is a disc around a point, not the area itself: sites outside the boundary are included, and sites inside it further than 75 km away are not.

USGS latest readings screened against EPA freshwater criteria (DO ≥ 5 mg/L, pH 6.5–9, conductance, turbidity, temperature); NWS flood categories where a NWPS gauge is co-located.

Groundwater #

No USGS monitoring wells within 75 km (or above 1,500 km)

Sites found: 0, searched within 75 km of this place’s internal point. That is a disc around a point, not the area itself: sites outside the boundary are included, and sites inside it further than 75 km away are not.

USGS latest daily water levels. A single latest reading says where the table is, not which way it is moving; select a well for its 365-day trace.

Water stress #

low (0.00)

Σ wᵢ·termᵢ / Σ wᵢ = 0.35×0.00 + 0.2×0.00 / 0.55

Banks & federal dollars #

$672.5 m in deposits at 16 offices of 8 banks (SOD June 2026); HHI 2,991, highly concentrated. $136.7 m federal obligations in FY2026 (direct payments $134.4 m, grants $2.2 m), $28,672 per covered job

Deposit concentration is 2,991 across 7 banks, which the 1995 Department of Justice bank merger screen calls highly concentrated.

HHI = Σ (share %)² over 7 banks with deposits in the county = 48.3² + 18.2² + 15.6² + … (4 more) = 2,991

FDIC Summary of Deposits: deposits at every insured office as of June 30, annual; HHI is the sum of squared county deposit shares (DOJ 1995 bank merger screen: 1000 / 1800). USAspending: obligations by place of performance for the latest complete federal fiscal year (Oct 1 to Sep 30), what agencies committed, not what they paid out; recipients are legal entities. Per-job divides obligations by BLS QCEW covered employment.

Federal obligations #

USAspending place-of-performance obligations for FY2026, by awarding agency.

That is $28,672 per covered job, against 4,767 jobs in the 2026 Q1 QCEW quarter.

per job = FY2026 obligations $136.7 m / 4,767 covered jobs (BLS QCEW 2026 Q1, all ownerships) = $28,672

USAspending obligations are recorded where the work is performed, so a prime award performed here is counted here even when the recipient is headquartered elsewhere. Recipients are legal entities, never people.

National context, not this county #

These are United States, single-gauge, single-state and port series. None of them is keyed to this county.

The indicator registry has no county-keyed series and no geographic selection: every entry is national, a named gauge, a single state or a port. They are here as the backdrop the county's own numbers move against, and they are never this county's readings.

What changed #

Shelby County, IL: 7 findings, 3 at a watch level and 4 noted

1. watchShelby County, IL's covered employment is -2.1% against a year earlier, a watch level here: covered employment below the same quarter a year earlier (BLS QCEW over-the-year percent change, as published; not an official level). The previous published period is not in this table, so this is a standing level rather than a change.

   Period 2026 Q1.
   Show the arithmetic

   • test: jobs.yoy.emp = -2.1 < 0

   BLS QCEW over-the-year percent change, as published; not an official level

2. watchShelby County, IL's years of wages of 3.4 scores 29 on the 0-to-100 scale across US counties but 73 across Illinois counties, a gap of 45 points.

   Period 2026-08.
   Show the arithmetic

   • 45 = |29 across US counties - 73 across Illinois counties|
   • typical home value / (average weekly wage × 52); one average covered job, not a household

   position among the entities that published this metric this period; not an official level

3. watchShelby County, IL's typical home value of $168,224 scores 23 on the 0-to-100 scale across US counties but 58 across Illinois counties, a gap of 35 points.

   Period 2026-08.
   Show the arithmetic

   • 35 = |23 across US counties - 58 across Illinois counties|

   position among the entities that published this metric this period; not an official level

4. noteShelby County, IL's average weekly wage was 5.4% higher than the same quarter a year earlier in 2026 Q1, on BLS QCEW's published over-the-year change.

   Period 2026 Q1.
   Show the arithmetic

   • +5.4 % = BLS QCEW over-the-year percent change for 2026 Q1, as published
   • the newest QCEW file carries no year-earlier level, so no move from one level to another is printed

   BLS QCEW over-the-year percent change, as published

5. noteShelby County, IL's covered employment was 2.1% lower than the same quarter a year earlier in 2026 Q1, on BLS QCEW's published over-the-year change.

   Period 2026 Q1.
   Show the arithmetic

   • -2.1 % = BLS QCEW over-the-year percent change for 2026 Q1, as published
   • the newest QCEW file carries no year-earlier level, so no move from one level to another is printed

   BLS QCEW over-the-year percent change, as published

Read all 7 findings in the full brief

Every finding is produced by a fixed rule table and a fixed sentence for each rule. Nothing here is generated prose.