Clay County, MN

Home values #

Typical home $304,062 (Aug 2026), +2.4% over one year, +18.3% over five

• 70th pct · 906th of 3,063 US counties · median $234,566
• 63rd pct · 32nd of 87 Minnesota counties · median $276,116
• counties in the Fargo metro: Rank context is unavailable: the manifest lists 2 counties in the Fargo metro; fewer than 5 is too few to rank.

Zillow Home Value Index (ZHVI), typical value of homes in the 35th to 65th percentile, smoothed and seasonally adjusted; a model estimate of value, not a sale price. Data through Zillow Research.

Rents #

Typical rent $1,135/mo (Aug 2026), +2.8% over one year; price-to-rent 22.3

• 17th pct · 1,157th of 1,399 US counties · median $1,496
• 27th pct · 28th of 38 Minnesota counties · median $1,295
• counties in the Fargo metro: Rank context is unavailable: the manifest lists 2 counties in the Fargo metro; fewer than 5 is too few to rank.

Zillow Observed Rent Index (ZORI), smoothed, all homes and multifamily; price-to-rent = typical home / (typical rent × 12).

What the typical home costs to carry #

Principal and interest of $1,664 a month on $304,062 at 7.28%, against an average weekly wage worth $4,537 a month: 36.7% of one job’s pay.

• payment = P·r / (1 − (1+r)^−n), P = $304,062 × 80% = $243,249, r = 7.28%/12 (Freddie Mac PMMS via FRED, 2026-10-01), n = 360 → $1,664/mo principal and interest
• wage share = payment / (avg weekly wage $1,047 × 52 / 12 = $4,537) = 37% of one average job's pay (BLS QCEW 2026 Q1, all covered jobs)
• years of wages = $304,062 / ($1,047 × 52) = 5.6
• price-to-rent = $304,062 / ($1,135 × 12) = 22.3

The wage is one covered job’s average, not a household’s income, so this is the share of a single paycheque and not a mortgage underwriting ratio.

Estimate. Principal and interest on the typical home with 20% down over 30 years at this week's Freddie Mac average rate; compared with the average weekly wage of all jobs covered by unemployment insurance in the area (BLS QCEW), which is pay per job, not household income.

Jobs & wages #

19,043 jobs at 1,468 employers (2026 Q1); -0.3% jobs and -9.7% average weekly wage over the year

• 70th pct · 961st of 3,221 US counties · median 8,232
• 76th pct · 21st of 87 Minnesota counties · median 7,739
• counties in the Fargo metro: Rank context is unavailable: the manifest lists 2 counties in the Fargo metro; fewer than 5 is too few to rank.

BLS Quarterly Census of Employment and Wages, all ownerships, total covered employment in the quarter's third month; over-the-year changes as published. Suppressed cells stay blank.

Drought #

D2 severe drought

Sites found: 5, searched within 0 km of this place’s internal point. That is a disc around a point, not the area itself: sites outside the boundary are included, and sites inside it further than 0 km away are not.

US Drought Monitor current week; the highest class of any polygon containing the point.

Reservoirs #

No reservoir gauges within 150 km (or the camera is above the gauge altitude)

Sites found: 0, searched within 150 km of this place’s internal point. That is a disc around a point, not the area itself: sites outside the boundary are included, and sites inside it further than 150 km away are not.

Σ(capacity × percent full) / Σ capacity over TWDB reservoirs within 150 km. Texas only; elsewhere USGS reservoir elevation/storage is listed without a capacity to normalise by.

Stream gauges #

56 gauges · 0 flooding · 6 with quality panels averaging 85 % · 15 stale

Sites found: 56, searched within 75 km of this place’s internal point. That is a disc around a point, not the area itself: sites outside the boundary are included, and sites inside it further than 75 km away are not.

USGS latest readings screened against EPA freshwater criteria (DO ≥ 5 mg/L, pH 6.5–9, conductance, turbidity, temperature); NWS flood categories where a NWPS gauge is co-located.

Groundwater #

10 wells in 0 named aquifers:

Sites found: 10, searched within 75 km of this place’s internal point. That is a disc around a point, not the area itself: sites outside the boundary are included, and sites inside it further than 75 km away are not.

USGS latest daily water levels. A single latest reading says where the table is, not which way it is moving; select a well for its 365-day trace.

Water stress #

moderate (0.37)

Σ wᵢ·termᵢ / Σ wᵢ = 0.35×0.50 + 0.2×0.15 / 0.55

Banks & federal dollars #

$1.7 bn in deposits at 19 offices of 11 banks (SOD June 2026); HHI 2,090, highly concentrated. $359.8 m federal obligations in FY2026 (direct payments $336.3 m, grants $18.6 m), $18,892 per covered job

Deposit concentration is 2,090 across 11 banks, which the 1995 Department of Justice bank merger screen calls highly concentrated.

HHI = Σ (share %)² over 11 banks with deposits in the county = 39.9² + 11.2² + 10.2² + … (8 more) = 2,090

FDIC Summary of Deposits: deposits at every insured office as of June 30, annual; HHI is the sum of squared county deposit shares (DOJ 1995 bank merger screen: 1000 / 1800). USAspending: obligations by place of performance for the latest complete federal fiscal year (Oct 1 to Sep 30), what agencies committed, not what they paid out; recipients are legal entities. Per-job divides obligations by BLS QCEW covered employment.

Federal obligations #

USAspending place-of-performance obligations for FY2026, by awarding agency.

That is $18,892 per covered job, against 19,043 jobs in the 2026 Q1 QCEW quarter.

per job = FY2026 obligations $359.8 m / 19,043 covered jobs (BLS QCEW 2026 Q1, all ownerships) = $18,892

USAspending obligations are recorded where the work is performed, so a prime award performed here is counted here even when the recipient is headquartered elsewhere. Recipients are legal entities, never people.

National context, not this county #

These are United States, single-gauge, single-state and port series. None of them is keyed to this county.

The indicator registry has no county-keyed series and no geographic selection: every entry is national, a named gauge, a single state or a port. They are here as the backdrop the county's own numbers move against, and they are never this county's readings.

What changed #

Clay County, MN: 9 findings, 2 at a watch level and 7 noted

1. watchClay County, MN's average weekly wage is -9.7% against a year earlier, a watch level here: average weekly wage below the same quarter a year earlier, before inflation (BLS QCEW over-the-year percent change, as published, nominal dollars; convention chosen for this dashboard, not an official level). The previous published period is not in this table, so this is a standing level rather than a change.

   Period 2026 Q1.
   Show the arithmetic

   • test: jobs.yoy.avgWeeklyWage = -9.7 < 0

   BLS QCEW over-the-year percent change, as published, nominal dollars; convention chosen for this dashboard, not an official level

2. watchClay County, MN's covered employment is -0.3% against a year earlier, a watch level here: covered employment below the same quarter a year earlier (BLS QCEW over-the-year percent change, as published; not an official level). The previous published period is not in this table, so this is a standing level rather than a change.

   Period 2026 Q1.
   Show the arithmetic

   • test: jobs.yoy.emp = -0.3 < 0

   BLS QCEW over-the-year percent change, as published; not an official level

3. noteClay County, MN's average weekly wage was 9.7% lower than the same quarter a year earlier in 2026 Q1, on BLS QCEW's published over-the-year change.

   Period 2026 Q1.
   Show the arithmetic

   • -9.7 % = BLS QCEW over-the-year percent change for 2026 Q1, as published
   • the newest QCEW file carries no year-earlier level, so no move from one level to another is printed

   BLS QCEW over-the-year percent change, as published

4. noteClay County, MN's typical asking rent rose 0.5% from $1,129 in July 2026 to $1,135 in August 2026, on Zillow ZORI.

   Period 2026-08.
   Show the arithmetic

   • +0.5% = (1134.7529079108026 - 1128.8645237527214) / 1128.8645237527214 × 100
   • 1134.7529079108026 = Zillow ZORI, 2026-08
   • 1128.8645237527214 = Zillow ZORI, 2026-07

5. noteClay County, MN's covered employment was 0.3% lower than the same quarter a year earlier in 2026 Q1, on BLS QCEW's published over-the-year change.

   Period 2026 Q1.
   Show the arithmetic

   • -0.3 % = BLS QCEW over-the-year percent change for 2026 Q1, as published
   • the newest QCEW file carries no year-earlier level, so no move from one level to another is printed

   BLS QCEW over-the-year percent change, as published

Read all 9 findings in the full brief

Every finding is produced by a fixed rule table and a fixed sentence for each rule. Nothing here is generated prose.