Warren County, MO
Housing, jobs, water, deposits and federal obligations for this county, each figure with the release it came from. Internal point 38.76, -91.16.
Assembled 2026-10-07. Read the brief.
- 76th pct · 712th of 3,063 US counties · median $234,566
- 97th pct · 4th of 113 Missouri counties · median $224,499
- 92nd pct · 2nd of 15 counties in the St. Louis metro · median $223,520
- 41st pct · 1,795th of 3,063 US counties · median +2.9%
- 14th pct · 97th of 113 Missouri counties · median +4.9%
- 28th pct · 11th of 15 counties in the St. Louis metro · median +3.8%
- 25th pct · 1,048th of 1,399 US counties · median $1,496
- 55th pct · 16th of 35 Missouri counties · median $1,231
- 25th pct · 7th of 9 counties in the St. Louis metro · median $1,332
- 53rd pct · 1,507th of 3,221 US counties · median 8,232
- 69th pct · 36th of 115 Missouri counties · median 4,996
- 28th pct · 11th of 15 counties in the St. Louis metro · median 12,995
- 40th pct · 1,916th of 3,221 US counties · median $1,039
- 77th pct · 27th of 115 Missouri counties · median $902
- 28th pct · 11th of 15 counties in the St. Louis metro · median $1,033
- 83rd pct · 503rd of 3,063 US counties · median 4.3
- 93rd pct · 8th of 113 Missouri counties · median 4.8
- 100th pct · 1st of 15 counties in the St. Louis metro · median 4.2
Typical home value divided by the average annual wage of one covered job.
A percentile here is a min-max scaling of average rank: the smallest published value in the cohort is 0 and the largest is 100, and tied values share the average of the ranks they span. It is not the share of entities below the value, so 0 means smallest, not none below. Entities that did not publish the metric are outside the cohort entirely and are counted in neither the rank nor its denominator.
Home values #
Typical home $335,547 (Aug 2026), +2.2% over one year, +24.1% over five
- 76th pct · 712th of 3,063 US counties · median $234,566
- 97th pct · 4th of 113 Missouri counties · median $224,499
- 92nd pct · 2nd of 15 counties in the St. Louis metro · median $223,520
| Item | Value | Distance |
|---|---|---|
| Warren County, MO | $335,547 · +2.2% 1-yr |
Zillow Home Value Index (ZHVI), typical value of homes in the 35th to 65th percentile, smoothed and seasonally adjusted; a model estimate of value, not a sale price. Data through Zillow Research.
Rents #
Typical rent $1,236/mo (Aug 2026), +4.1% over one year; price-to-rent 22.6
- 25th pct · 1,048th of 1,399 US counties · median $1,496
- 55th pct · 16th of 35 Missouri counties · median $1,231
- 25th pct · 7th of 9 counties in the St. Louis metro · median $1,332
| Item | Value | Distance |
|---|---|---|
| Warren County, MO | $1,236/mo · +4.1% 1-yr |
Zillow Observed Rent Index (ZORI), smoothed, all homes and multifamily; price-to-rent = typical home / (typical rent × 12).
What the typical home costs to carry #
Principal and interest of $1,837 a month on $335,547 at 7.28%, against an average weekly wage worth $4,320 a month: 42.5% of one job’s pay.
- payment = P·r / (1 − (1+r)^−n), P = $335,547 × 80% = $268,438, r = 7.28%/12 (Freddie Mac PMMS via FRED, 2026-10-01), n = 360 → $1,837/mo principal and interest
- wage share = payment / (avg weekly wage $997 × 52 / 12 = $4,320) = 43% of one average job's pay (BLS QCEW 2026 Q1, all covered jobs)
- years of wages = $335,547 / ($997 × 52) = 6.5
- price-to-rent = $335,547 / ($1,236 × 12) = 22.6
The wage is one covered job’s average, not a household’s income, so this is the share of a single paycheque and not a mortgage underwriting ratio.
Estimate. Principal and interest on the typical home with 20% down over 30 years at this week's Freddie Mac average rate; compared with the average weekly wage of all jobs covered by unemployment insurance in the area (BLS QCEW), which is pay per job, not household income.
Jobs & wages #
9,377 jobs at 844 employers (2026 Q1); +10.2% jobs and +3.7% average weekly wage over the year
- 53rd pct · 1,507th of 3,221 US counties · median 8,232
- 69th pct · 36th of 115 Missouri counties · median 4,996
- 28th pct · 11th of 15 counties in the St. Louis metro · median 12,995
| Item | Value | Distance |
|---|---|---|
| Warren County, MO | 9,377 jobs · $997/wk · +10.2% YoY |
| NAICS sector | Jobs | Avg weekly wage | Location quotient | Jobs over the year |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Manufacturing | 2,216 | $1,137 | 2.94 | +24.8% |
| Construction | 1,032 | $1,140 | 2.10 | +3.9% |
| Retail trade | 993 | $651 | 1.09 | +5.4% |
| Health care and social assistance | 798 | $824 | 0.57 | +12.1% |
| Accommodation and food services | 774 | $422 | 0.92 | +4.6% |
| Transportation and warehousing | 620 | $948 | 1.57 | +35.7% |
| Finance and insurance | 253 | $1,284 | 0.66 | +3.7% |
| Administrative and waste services | 218 | $745 | 0.41 | -0.5% |
| Other services | 215 | $805 | 0.77 | +5.4% |
| Information | 138 | $2,043 | 0.80 | -2.8% |
| Educational services | 54 | $748 | 0.27 | +25.6% |
| Real estate and rental | 52 | $733 | 0.36 | -7.1% |
BLS Quarterly Census of Employment and Wages, all ownerships, total covered employment in the quarter's third month; over-the-year changes as published. Suppressed cells stay blank.
Water #
Banks & federal dollars #
$856.3 m in deposits at 12 offices of 8 banks (SOD June 2026); HHI 1,788, moderately concentrated. $-565,973 federal obligations in FY2026 (loans $55,816, contracts $6,473), $-60 per covered job
| Item | Value | Distance |
|---|---|---|
| American Bank of Freedom | $216.2 m · 25.2% share · 2 offices | |
| The Missouri Bank | $198.4 m · 23.2% share · 1 office | |
| First State Community Bank | $171.9 m · 20.1% share · 4 offices | |
| Warren, MO | $-565,973 FY2026 · $-60/job | |
| MULTIPLE RECIPIENTS | $236.7 m · top recipient FY2026 |
| Institution | Deposits | Share | Offices |
|---|---|---|---|
| American Bank of Freedom | $216,152,000 | 25.2% | 2 |
| The Missouri Bank | $198,424,000 | 23.2% | 1 |
| First State Community Bank | $171,927,000 | 20.1% | 4 |
| U.S. Bank National Association | $74,791,000 | 8.7% | 1 |
| Heritage Community Bank | $64,066,000 | 7.5% | 1 |
| FMB Bank | $47,572,000 | 5.6% | 1 |
| Jonesburg State Bank | $42,958,000 | 5.0% | 1 |
| PNC Bank, National Association | $40,395,000 | 4.7% | 1 |
Deposit concentration is 1,788 across 8 banks, which the 1995 Department of Justice bank merger screen calls moderately concentrated.
HHI = Σ (share %)² over 8 banks with deposits in the county = 25.2² + 23.2² + 20.1² + … (5 more) = 1,788
FDIC Summary of Deposits: deposits at every insured office as of June 30, annual; HHI is the sum of squared county deposit shares (DOJ 1995 bank merger screen: 1000 / 1800). USAspending: obligations by place of performance for the latest complete federal fiscal year (Oct 1 to Sep 30), what agencies committed, not what they paid out; recipients are legal entities. Per-job divides obligations by BLS QCEW covered employment.
Federal obligations #
USAspending place-of-performance obligations for FY2026, by awarding agency.
| Awarding agency | Obligations |
|---|---|
| Social Security Administration | $211,439,872 |
| Department of Veterans Affairs | $24,370,344 |
| Department of Agriculture | $1,468,201 |
| Railroad Retirement Board | $809,878 |
| Department of Health and Human Services | $579,036 |
| Department of Defense | $6,473 |
| Small Business Administration | $0 |
| Department of Homeland Security | -$18,443 |
| Department of Transportation | -$1,098,909 |
That is -$60 per covered job, against 9,377 jobs in the 2026 Q1 QCEW quarter.
per job = FY2026 obligations $-565,973 / 9,377 covered jobs (BLS QCEW 2026 Q1, all ownerships) = $-60
USAspending obligations are recorded where the work is performed, so a prime award performed here is counted here even when the recipient is headquartered elsewhere. Recipients are legal entities, never people.
National context, not this county #
These are United States, single-gauge, single-state and port series. None of them is keyed to this county.
| Series | Latest | As of | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Mississippi River at Memphis, stage · ft | not published | not published | |
| Mississippi River at St. Louis, stage · ft | not published | not published | |
| Ohio River at Louisville, stage · ft | 12.69 | 2026-10-05 | +3.3% |
| Missouri River at St. Joseph, stage · ft | not published | not published | |
| Colorado River below Hoover Dam, flow (Hoover releases) · ft³/s | 5,170.00 | 2026-02-05 | -25.3% |
| Texas reservoirs, statewide percent full · % | 72.60 | 2026-10-06 | +0.0% |
| Laredo truck crossings, monthly · trucks | 258,700.00 | 2026-08-01 | -0.4% |
| Los Angeles + Long Beach container volume, annual · TEU | 10,513,167.00 | 2023-01-01 | -13.5% |
| Containerships waiting for a berth, all US ports · ships | 3.00 | 2026-10-06 | -50.0% |
| Shanghai to Los Angeles container rate · $ per 40 ft box | 7,848.00 | 2026-09-01 | +14.9% |
| US diesel retail price · $ per gallon | unavailable | not published | |
| WTI crude oil, spot · $ per barrel | 96.16 | 2026-09-29 | -3.2% |
| 30-year fixed mortgage rate · % | 7.28 | 2026-10-01 | +3.6% |
| Housing starts, annual rate · thousands of units | 1,275.00 | 2026-08-01 | -2.6% |
| Building permits, annual rate · thousands of units | 1,403.00 | 2026-08-01 | -2.1% |
| Case-Shiller US home price index · index, Jan 2000 = 100 | 337.31 | 2026-07-01 | +0.1% |
| Unemployment rate · % | 4.20 | 2026-09-01 | +2.4% |
| US goods and services trade balance, monthly · $ millions | -105,572.00 | 2026-08-01 | -13.7% |
| Retail sales excluding food services, monthly · $ millions | 646,347.00 | 2026-08-01 | +1.1% |
The indicator registry has no county-keyed series and no geographic selection: every entry is national, a named gauge, a single state or a port. They are here as the backdrop the county's own numbers move against, and they are never this county's readings.
What changed #
Warren County, MO: 17 findings, 2 at a watch level and 15 noted
watchWarren County, MO's average weekly wage of $997 scores 40 on the 0-to-100 scale across US counties but 77 across Missouri counties, a gap of 37 points.
Period 2026 Q1.Show the arithmetic
- 37 = |40 across US counties - 77 across Missouri counties|
position among the entities that published this metric this period; not an official level
watchWarren County, MO's typical asking rent of $1,236 scores 25 on the 0-to-100 scale across US counties but 56 across Missouri counties, a gap of 31 points.
Period 2026-08.Show the arithmetic
- 31 = |25 across US counties - 56 across Missouri counties|
position among the entities that published this metric this period; not an official level
noteWarren County, MO's covered employment was 10.2% higher than the same quarter a year earlier in 2026 Q1, on BLS QCEW's published over-the-year change.
Period 2026 Q1.Show the arithmetic
- +10.2 % = BLS QCEW over-the-year percent change for 2026 Q1, as published
- the newest QCEW file carries no year-earlier level, so no move from one level to another is printed
BLS QCEW over-the-year percent change, as published
noteWarren County, MO's average weekly wage was 3.7% higher than the same quarter a year earlier in 2026 Q1, on BLS QCEW's published over-the-year change.
Period 2026 Q1.Show the arithmetic
- +3.7 % = BLS QCEW over-the-year percent change for 2026 Q1, as published
- the newest QCEW file carries no year-earlier level, so no move from one level to another is printed
BLS QCEW over-the-year percent change, as published
noteWarren County, MO's typical asking rent rose 0.5% from $1,230 in July 2026 to $1,236 in August 2026, on Zillow ZORI.
Period 2026-08.Show the arithmetic
- +0.5% = (1236.3333333333333 - 1229.6013639969415) / 1229.6013639969415 × 100
- 1236.3333333333333 = Zillow ZORI, 2026-08
- 1229.6013639969415 = Zillow ZORI, 2026-07
Read all 12 findings in the full brief
Every finding is produced by a fixed rule table and a fixed sentence for each rule. Nothing here is generated prose.