Arizona brief

Rule set version 1, status watch · covering 2026 Q1, 2026-08

7 findings fired for Arizona this run, against a typical home value of $417,990 in August 2026 and covered employment of 3,249,138 in 2026 Q1.

The full Arizona page, with its largest counties and every section’s source.

Arizona: 7 findings, 2 at a watch level and 5 noted

  1. watchArizona's typical home value is -1.1% against a year earlier, a watch level here: typical home value below a year ago (arithmetic on Zillow ZHVI, county and metro files; not an official level). The previous published period is not in this table, so this is a standing level rather than a change.

    Period 2026-08.
    Show the arithmetic
    • test: home.yoyPct = -1.1374179987509936 < 0

    arithmetic on Zillow ZHVI, county and metro files; not an official level

  2. watchArizona's covered employment is -0.6% against a year earlier, a watch level here: covered employment below the same quarter a year earlier (BLS QCEW over-the-year percent change, as published; not an official level). The previous published period is not in this table, so this is a standing level rather than a change.

    Period 2026 Q1.
    Show the arithmetic
    • test: jobs.yoy.emp = -0.6 < 0

    BLS QCEW over-the-year percent change, as published; not an official level

  3. noteArizona's average weekly wage was 4.5% higher than the same quarter a year earlier in 2026 Q1, on BLS QCEW's published over-the-year change.

    Period 2026 Q1.
    Show the arithmetic
    • +4.5 % = BLS QCEW over-the-year percent change for 2026 Q1, as published
    • the newest QCEW file carries no year-earlier level, so no move from one level to another is printed

    BLS QCEW over-the-year percent change, as published

  4. noteArizona's covered employment was 0.6% lower than the same quarter a year earlier in 2026 Q1, on BLS QCEW's published over-the-year change.

    Period 2026 Q1.
    Show the arithmetic
    • -0.6 % = BLS QCEW over-the-year percent change for 2026 Q1, as published
    • the newest QCEW file carries no year-earlier level, so no move from one level to another is printed

    BLS QCEW over-the-year percent change, as published

  5. noteArizona's typical home value of -1.1% ranks 47th of 51 US states, against a median of +2.1%.

    Period 2026-08.
    Show the arithmetic
    • 8 on the 0-to-100 scale across 51 US states that published home.yoyPct

    position among the entities that published this metric this period; not an official level

  6. noteThe next Unemployment rate (BLS Employment Situation, monthly) covering Arizona is due between 2026-09-25 and 2026-10-09, estimated from the publisher's past release pattern.

    Show the arithmetic
    • window = 2026-09-25 to 2026-10-09, estimated from the publisher's past release pattern

    estimated from the publisher's past release pattern; not an announced date

  7. noteThe next Zillow ZHVI typical home value (monthly) covering Arizona is due between 2026-10-14 and 2026-10-21, estimated from the publisher's past release pattern.

    Show the arithmetic
    • window = 2026-10-14 to 2026-10-21, estimated from the publisher's past release pattern

    estimated from the publisher's past release pattern; not an announced date

Next release

Unemployment rate (BLS Employment Situation, monthly), between 2026-09-25 and 2026-10-09 (approximate).

Sources #

  • publishedZillow Home Value Index (ZHVI)Zillow Researchopen the source
    State_zhvi_uc_sfrcondo_tier_0.33_0.67_sm_sa_month.csv · period 2026-08 · retrieved 2026-10-02
  • publishedQuarterly Census of Employment and WagesU.S. Bureau of Labor Statisticsopen the source
    area 04, all ownerships, all industries · period 2026-Q1 · retrieved 2026-10-02
  • estimateZillow Home Value Index (ZHVI)Zillow Researchopen the source
    · retrieved 2026-10-02 · month-over-month percent change = (newest month − previous month) / |previous month| × 100, from Zillow's own published month columns
  • estimateZillow Home Value Index (ZHVI)Zillow Researchopen the source
    · retrieved 2026-10-02 · momentum = Σ wᵢ · clip(changeᵢ / scaleᵢ, −1, 1) / Σ wᵢ over the terms present; weights and scales: home value 1-yr change 0.3 (±10%), rent 1-yr change 0.15 (±10%), jobs over-the-year change 0.3 (±3%), avg weekly wage over-the-year change 0.25 (±6%)
  • estimateQuarterly Census of Employment and WagesU.S. Bureau of Labor Statisticsopen the source
    · retrieved 2026-10-02 · typical home value / (average weekly wage × 52); one average covered job, not a household

Citations

  • Zillow Research. Zillow Home Value Index (ZHVI). series State_zhvi_uc_sfrcondo_tier_0.33_0.67_sm_sa_month.csv. period 2026-08. https://files.zillowstatic.com/research/public_csvs/zhvi/State_zhvi_uc_sfrcondo_tier_0.33_0.67_sm_sa_month.csv. accessed 2026-10-02.
  • U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics. Quarterly Census of Employment and Wages. series area 04, all ownerships, all industries. period 2026-Q1. https://data.bls.gov/cew/data/api/2026/1/area/04.csv. accessed 2026-10-02.
  • Zillow Research. Zillow Home Value Index (ZHVI). https://www.zillow.com/research/data/. accessed 2026-10-02. estimate computed by Embedding Atlas: month-over-month percent change = (newest month − previous month) / |previous month| × 100, from Zillow's own published month columns.
  • Zillow Research. Zillow Home Value Index (ZHVI). https://www.zillow.com/research/data/. accessed 2026-10-02. estimate computed by Embedding Atlas: momentum = Σ wᵢ · clip(changeᵢ / scaleᵢ, −1, 1) / Σ wᵢ over the terms present; weights and scales: home value 1-yr change 0.3 (±10%), rent 1-yr change 0.15 (±10%), jobs over-the-year change 0.3 (±3%), avg weekly wage over-the-year change 0.25 (±6%).
  • U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics. Quarterly Census of Employment and Wages. https://www.bls.gov/cew/. accessed 2026-10-02. estimate computed by Embedding Atlas: typical home value / (average weekly wage × 52); one average covered job, not a household.

What these numbers are not

  • The newest BLS QCEW file carries no year-earlier level, only the over-the-year percent change BLS publishes itself. Every employment and wage comparison here states that published change; none of them is a move from one level to another, because the two levels are not both in the file.
  • A percentile here is a min-max scaling of average rank across the entities that published the metric this period: the smallest published value scores 0 and the largest scores 100. It is not the share of entities below the value, and entities that did not publish the metric are counted in neither the rank nor its denominator.
  • The named indicators shown beside this brief are national or basin-level series, not measurements of Arizona; 30-year fixed mortgage rate (watch), Los Angeles + Long Beach container volume, annual (watch), Shanghai to Los Angeles container rate (watch) and WTI crude oil, spot (watch) are at a watch or alert level. They are context.

Page assembled 2026-10-02T03:08:09.700Z. Place identity tables have never been pulled: names, centroids and memberships come from the offline seed, which is complete for states and metropolitan areas and partial for counties.