Baxter County, AR

Home values #

Typical home $238,125 (Aug 2026), +0.9% over one year, +21.8% over five

• 51st pct · 1,493rd of 3,063 US counties · median $234,566
• 87th pct · 10th of 74 Arkansas counties · median $169,663

Zillow Home Value Index (ZHVI), typical value of homes in the 35th to 65th percentile, smoothed and seasonally adjusted; a model estimate of value, not a sale price. Data through Zillow Research.

Rents #

Typical rent $1,167/mo (Aug 2026), n/a over one year; price-to-rent 17.0

• 19th pct · 1,126th of 1,399 US counties · median $1,496
• 57th pct · 10th of 22 Arkansas counties · median $1,127

Zillow Observed Rent Index (ZORI), smoothed, all homes and multifamily; price-to-rent = typical home / (typical rent × 12).

What the typical home costs to carry #

Principal and interest of $1,303 a month on $238,125 at 7.28%, against an average weekly wage worth $3,952 a month: 33.0% of one job’s pay.

• payment = P·r / (1 − (1+r)^−n), P = $238,125 × 80% = $190,500, r = 7.28%/12 (Freddie Mac PMMS via FRED, 2026-10-01), n = 360 → $1,303/mo principal and interest
• wage share = payment / (avg weekly wage $912 × 52 / 12 = $3,952) = 33% of one average job's pay (BLS QCEW 2026 Q1, all covered jobs)
• years of wages = $238,125 / ($912 × 52) = 5.0
• price-to-rent = $238,125 / ($1,167 × 12) = 17.0

The wage is one covered job’s average, not a household’s income, so this is the share of a single paycheque and not a mortgage underwriting ratio.

Estimate. Principal and interest on the typical home with 20% down over 30 years at this week's Freddie Mac average rate; compared with the average weekly wage of all jobs covered by unemployment insurance in the area (BLS QCEW), which is pay per job, not household income.

Jobs & wages #

16,656 jobs at 1,406 employers (2026 Q1); +2.6% jobs and +5.2% average weekly wage over the year

• 67th pct · 1,057th of 3,221 US counties · median 8,232
• 79th pct · 16th of 75 Arkansas counties · median 5,609

BLS Quarterly Census of Employment and Wages, all ownerships, total covered employment in the quarter's third month; over-the-year changes as published. Suppressed cells stay blank.

Drought #

D2 severe drought

Sites found: 5, searched within 0 km of this place’s internal point. That is a disc around a point, not the area itself: sites outside the boundary are included, and sites inside it further than 0 km away are not.

US Drought Monitor current week; the highest class of any polygon containing the point.

Reservoirs #

No reservoir gauges within 150 km (or the camera is above the gauge altitude)

Sites found: 0, searched within 150 km of this place’s internal point. That is a disc around a point, not the area itself: sites outside the boundary are included, and sites inside it further than 150 km away are not.

Σ(capacity × percent full) / Σ capacity over TWDB reservoirs within 150 km. Texas only; elsewhere USGS reservoir elevation/storage is listed without a capacity to normalise by.

Stream gauges #

26 gauges · 0 flooding · 8 with quality panels averaging 100 % · 5 stale

Sites found: 26, searched within 75 km of this place’s internal point. That is a disc around a point, not the area itself: sites outside the boundary are included, and sites inside it further than 75 km away are not.

USGS latest readings screened against EPA freshwater criteria (DO ≥ 5 mg/L, pH 6.5–9, conductance, turbidity, temperature); NWS flood categories where a NWPS gauge is co-located.

Groundwater #

3 wells in 0 named aquifers:

Sites found: 3, searched within 75 km of this place’s internal point. That is a disc around a point, not the area itself: sites outside the boundary are included, and sites inside it further than 75 km away are not.

USGS latest daily water levels. A single latest reading says where the table is, not which way it is moving; select a well for its 365-day trace.

Water stress #

moderate (0.32)

Σ wᵢ·termᵢ / Σ wᵢ = 0.35×0.50 + 0.2×0.00 / 0.55

Banks & federal dollars #

$1.6 bn in deposits at 23 offices of 10 banks (SOD June 2026); HHI 1,481, moderately concentrated. $434.2 m federal obligations in FY2026 (direct payments $410.2 m, contracts $13.8 m), $26,071 per covered job

Deposit concentration is 1,481 across 10 banks, which the 1995 Department of Justice bank merger screen calls moderately concentrated.

HHI = Σ (share %)² over 10 banks with deposits in the county = 24.4² + 17.3² + 15.7² + … (7 more) = 1,481

FDIC Summary of Deposits: deposits at every insured office as of June 30, annual; HHI is the sum of squared county deposit shares (DOJ 1995 bank merger screen: 1000 / 1800). USAspending: obligations by place of performance for the latest complete federal fiscal year (Oct 1 to Sep 30), what agencies committed, not what they paid out; recipients are legal entities. Per-job divides obligations by BLS QCEW covered employment.

Federal obligations #

USAspending place-of-performance obligations for FY2026, by awarding agency.

That is $26,071 per covered job, against 16,656 jobs in the 2026 Q1 QCEW quarter.

per job = FY2026 obligations $434.2 m / 16,656 covered jobs (BLS QCEW 2026 Q1, all ownerships) = $26,071

USAspending obligations are recorded where the work is performed, so a prime award performed here is counted here even when the recipient is headquartered elsewhere. Recipients are legal entities, never people.

National context, not this county #

These are United States, single-gauge, single-state and port series. None of them is keyed to this county.

The indicator registry has no county-keyed series and no geographic selection: every entry is national, a named gauge, a single state or a port. They are here as the backdrop the county's own numbers move against, and they are never this county's readings.

What changed #

Baxter County, AR: 8 findings, 3 at a watch level and 5 noted

1. watchBaxter County, AR's typical asking rent rose 3.3% from $1,129 in July 2026 to $1,167 in August 2026, on Zillow ZORI.

   Period 2026-08.
   Show the arithmetic

   • +3.3% = (1166.6666666666667 - 1129.1004356901417) / 1129.1004356901417 × 100
   • 1166.6666666666667 = Zillow ZORI, 2026-08
   • 1129.1004356901417 = Zillow ZORI, 2026-07

2. watchBaxter County, AR's typical asking rent of $1,167 scores 20 on the 0-to-100 scale across US counties but 57 across Arkansas counties, a gap of 38 points.

   Period 2026-08.
   Show the arithmetic

   • 38 = |20 across US counties - 57 across Arkansas counties|

   position among the entities that published this metric this period; not an official level

3. watchBaxter County, AR's typical home value of $238,125 scores 51 on the 0-to-100 scale across US counties but 88 across Arkansas counties, a gap of 36 points.

   Period 2026-08.
   Show the arithmetic

   • 36 = |51 across US counties - 88 across Arkansas counties|

   position among the entities that published this metric this period; not an official level

4. noteBaxter County, AR's average weekly wage was 5.2% higher than the same quarter a year earlier in 2026 Q1, on BLS QCEW's published over-the-year change.

   Period 2026 Q1.
   Show the arithmetic

   • +5.2 % = BLS QCEW over-the-year percent change for 2026 Q1, as published
   • the newest QCEW file carries no year-earlier level, so no move from one level to another is printed

   BLS QCEW over-the-year percent change, as published

5. noteBaxter County, AR's covered employment was 2.6% higher than the same quarter a year earlier in 2026 Q1, on BLS QCEW's published over-the-year change.

   Period 2026 Q1.
   Show the arithmetic

   • +2.6 % = BLS QCEW over-the-year percent change for 2026 Q1, as published
   • the newest QCEW file carries no year-earlier level, so no move from one level to another is printed

   BLS QCEW over-the-year percent change, as published

Read all 8 findings in the full brief

Every finding is produced by a fixed rule table and a fixed sentence for each rule. Nothing here is generated prose.