Columbia County, AR

Home values #

Typical home $141,994 (Aug 2026), -2.4% over one year, -16.8% over five

• 12th pct · 2,673rd of 3,063 US counties · median $234,566
• 31st pct · 51st of 74 Arkansas counties · median $169,663

Zillow Home Value Index (ZHVI), typical value of homes in the 35th to 65th percentile, smoothed and seasonally adjusted; a model estimate of value, not a sale price. Data through Zillow Research.

Rents #

Zillow publishes no rent index for this area (ZORI covers about 1,400 counties)

• US counties: not published this period
• Arkansas counties: not published this period

Zillow Observed Rent Index (ZORI), smoothed, all homes and multifamily; price-to-rent = typical home / (typical rent × 12).

What the typical home costs to carry #

Principal and interest of $777 a month on $141,994 at 7.28%, against an average weekly wage worth $4,468 a month: 17.4% of one job’s pay.

• payment = P·r / (1 − (1+r)^−n), P = $141,994 × 80% = $113,595, r = 7.28%/12 (Freddie Mac PMMS via FRED, 2026-10-01), n = 360 → $777/mo principal and interest
• wage share = payment / (avg weekly wage $1,031 × 52 / 12 = $4,468) = 17% of one average job's pay (BLS QCEW 2026 Q1, all covered jobs)
• years of wages = $141,994 / ($1,031 × 52) = 2.6

The wage is one covered job’s average, not a household’s income, so this is the share of a single paycheque and not a mortgage underwriting ratio.

Estimate. Principal and interest on the typical home with 20% down over 30 years at this week's Freddie Mac average rate; compared with the average weekly wage of all jobs covered by unemployment insurance in the area (BLS QCEW), which is pay per job, not household income.

Jobs & wages #

7,786 jobs at 622 employers (2026 Q1); -2.4% jobs and +2.4% average weekly wage over the year

• 48th pct · 1,653rd of 3,221 US counties · median 8,232
• 64th pct · 27th of 75 Arkansas counties · median 5,609

BLS Quarterly Census of Employment and Wages, all ownerships, total covered employment in the quarter's third month; over-the-year changes as published. Suppressed cells stay blank.

Drought #

D2 severe drought

Sites found: 5, searched within 0 km of this place’s internal point. That is a disc around a point, not the area itself: sites outside the boundary are included, and sites inside it further than 0 km away are not.

US Drought Monitor current week; the highest class of any polygon containing the point.

Reservoirs #

92 % of conservation capacity, weighted over 3 TWDB reservoirs

Sites found: 3, searched within 150 km of this place’s internal point. That is a disc around a point, not the area itself: sites outside the boundary are included, and sites inside it further than 150 km away are not.

Σ(capacity × percent full) / Σ capacity over TWDB reservoirs within 150 km. Texas only; elsewhere USGS reservoir elevation/storage is listed without a capacity to normalise by.

Stream gauges #

15 gauges · 0 flooding · 0 with quality panels · 1 stale

Sites found: 15, searched within 75 km of this place’s internal point. That is a disc around a point, not the area itself: sites outside the boundary are included, and sites inside it further than 75 km away are not.

USGS latest readings screened against EPA freshwater criteria (DO ≥ 5 mg/L, pH 6.5–9, conductance, turbidity, temperature); NWS flood categories where a NWPS gauge is co-located.

Groundwater #

12 wells in 0 named aquifers:

Sites found: 12, searched within 75 km of this place’s internal point. That is a disc around a point, not the area itself: sites outside the boundary are included, and sites inside it further than 75 km away are not.

USGS latest daily water levels. A single latest reading says where the table is, not which way it is moving; select a well for its 365-day trace.

Water stress #

moderate (0.31)

Σ wᵢ·termᵢ / Σ wᵢ = 0.35×0.50 + 0.3×0.08 / 0.65

Banks & federal dollars #

$1.0 bn in deposits at 15 offices of 4 banks (SOD June 2026); HHI 5,563, highly concentrated. $184.5 m federal obligations in FY2026 (direct payments $152.9 m, grants $17.2 m), $23,696 per covered job

Deposit concentration is 5,563 across 4 banks, which the 1995 Department of Justice bank merger screen calls highly concentrated.

HHI = Σ (share %)² over 4 banks with deposits in the county = 72.7² + 13.5² + 7.3² + … (1 more) = 5,563

FDIC Summary of Deposits: deposits at every insured office as of June 30, annual; HHI is the sum of squared county deposit shares (DOJ 1995 bank merger screen: 1000 / 1800). USAspending: obligations by place of performance for the latest complete federal fiscal year (Oct 1 to Sep 30), what agencies committed, not what they paid out; recipients are legal entities. Per-job divides obligations by BLS QCEW covered employment.

Federal obligations #

USAspending place-of-performance obligations for FY2026, by awarding agency.

That is $23,696 per covered job, against 7,786 jobs in the 2026 Q1 QCEW quarter.

per job = FY2026 obligations $184.5 m / 7,786 covered jobs (BLS QCEW 2026 Q1, all ownerships) = $23,696

USAspending obligations are recorded where the work is performed, so a prime award performed here is counted here even when the recipient is headquartered elsewhere. Recipients are legal entities, never people.

National context, not this county #

These are United States, single-gauge, single-state and port series. None of them is keyed to this county.

The indicator registry has no county-keyed series and no geographic selection: every entry is national, a named gauge, a single state or a port. They are here as the backdrop the county's own numbers move against, and they are never this county's readings.

What changed #

Columbia County, AR: 9 findings, 4 at a watch level and 5 noted

1. watchColumbia County, AR's typical home value is -2.4% against a year earlier, a watch level here: typical home value below a year ago (arithmetic on Zillow ZHVI, county and metro files; not an official level). The previous published period is not in this table, so this is a standing level rather than a change.

   Period 2026-08.
   Show the arithmetic

   • test: home.yoyPct = -2.437860843597443 < 0

   arithmetic on Zillow ZHVI, county and metro files; not an official level

2. watchColumbia County, AR's covered employment is -2.4% against a year earlier, a watch level here: covered employment below the same quarter a year earlier (BLS QCEW over-the-year percent change, as published; not an official level). The previous published period is not in this table, so this is a standing level rather than a change.

   Period 2026 Q1.
   Show the arithmetic

   • test: jobs.yoy.emp = -2.4 < 0

   BLS QCEW over-the-year percent change, as published; not an official level

3. watchColumbia County, AR's momentum index is -0.25, a watch level here: momentum index in the cooling band (the cooling band of the momentum index computed here, score at or below -0.25; convention chosen for this dashboard, not an official level). The previous published period is not in this table, so this is a standing level rather than a change.

   Period 2026-08.
   Show the arithmetic

   • test: momentum = -0.25074802977402744 <= -0.25
   • momentum = Σ wᵢ · clip(changeᵢ / scaleᵢ, −1, 1) / Σ wᵢ over the terms present; weights and scales: home value 1-yr change 0.3 (±10%), rent 1-yr change 0.15 (±10%), jobs over-the-year change 0.3 (±3%), avg weekly wage over-the-year change 0.25 (±6%)

   the cooling band of the momentum index computed here, score at or below -0.25; convention chosen for this dashboard, not an official level

4. watchColumbia County, AR's average weekly wage of $1,031 scores 48 on the 0-to-100 scale across US counties but 84 across Arkansas counties, a gap of 36 points.

   Period 2026 Q1.
   Show the arithmetic

   • 36 = |48 across US counties - 84 across Arkansas counties|

   position among the entities that published this metric this period; not an official level

5. noteColumbia County, AR's average weekly wage was 2.4% higher than the same quarter a year earlier in 2026 Q1, on BLS QCEW's published over-the-year change.

   Period 2026 Q1.
   Show the arithmetic

   • +2.4 % = BLS QCEW over-the-year percent change for 2026 Q1, as published
   • the newest QCEW file carries no year-earlier level, so no move from one level to another is printed

   BLS QCEW over-the-year percent change, as published

Read all 9 findings in the full brief

Every finding is produced by a fixed rule table and a fixed sentence for each rule. Nothing here is generated prose.