Warren County, PA
Housing, jobs, water, deposits and federal obligations for this county, each figure with the release it came from. Internal point 41.83, -79.30.
Assembled 2026-10-07. Read the brief.
- 11th pct · 2,703rd of 3,063 US counties · median $234,566
- 9th pct · 61st of 67 Pennsylvania counties · median $233,681
- 42nd pct · 1,748th of 3,063 US counties · median +2.9%
- 28th pct · 48th of 67 Pennsylvania counties · median +3.4%
- US counties: not published this period
- Pennsylvania counties: not published this period
- 60th pct · 1,283rd of 3,221 US counties · median 8,232
- 21st pct · 53rd of 67 Pennsylvania counties · median 27,809
- 50th pct · 1,587th of 3,221 US counties · median $1,039
- 30th pct · 47th of 67 Pennsylvania counties · median $1,102
- 11th pct · 2,704th of 3,063 US counties · median 4.3
- 12th pct · 59th of 67 Pennsylvania counties · median 3.8
Typical home value divided by the average annual wage of one covered job.
A percentile here is a min-max scaling of average rank: the smallest published value in the cohort is 0 and the largest is 100, and tied values share the average of the ranks they span. It is not the share of entities below the value, so 0 means smallest, not none below. Entities that did not publish the metric are outside the cohort entirely and are counted in neither the rank nor its denominator.
Home values #
Typical home $139,491 (Aug 2026), +2.3% over one year, +20.6% over five
- 11th pct · 2,703rd of 3,063 US counties · median $234,566
- 9th pct · 61st of 67 Pennsylvania counties · median $233,681
| Item | Value | Distance |
|---|---|---|
| Warren County, PA | $139,491 · +2.3% 1-yr |
Zillow Home Value Index (ZHVI), typical value of homes in the 35th to 65th percentile, smoothed and seasonally adjusted; a model estimate of value, not a sale price. Data through Zillow Research.
Rents #
Zillow publishes no rent index for this area (ZORI covers about 1,400 counties)
- US counties: not published this period
- Pennsylvania counties: not published this period
Zillow Observed Rent Index (ZORI), smoothed, all homes and multifamily; price-to-rent = typical home / (typical rent × 12).
What the typical home costs to carry #
Principal and interest of $764 a month on $139,491 at 7.28%, against an average weekly wage worth $4,511 a month: 16.9% of one job’s pay.
- payment = P·r / (1 − (1+r)^−n), P = $139,491 × 80% = $111,593, r = 7.28%/12 (Freddie Mac PMMS via FRED, 2026-10-01), n = 360 → $764/mo principal and interest
- wage share = payment / (avg weekly wage $1,041 × 52 / 12 = $4,511) = 17% of one average job's pay (BLS QCEW 2026 Q1, all covered jobs)
- years of wages = $139,491 / ($1,041 × 52) = 2.6
The wage is one covered job’s average, not a household’s income, so this is the share of a single paycheque and not a mortgage underwriting ratio.
Estimate. Principal and interest on the typical home with 20% down over 30 years at this week's Freddie Mac average rate; compared with the average weekly wage of all jobs covered by unemployment insurance in the area (BLS QCEW), which is pay per job, not household income.
Jobs & wages #
12,537 jobs at 912 employers (2026 Q1); -3.3% jobs and +4.6% average weekly wage over the year
- 60th pct · 1,283rd of 3,221 US counties · median 8,232
- 21st pct · 53rd of 67 Pennsylvania counties · median 27,809
| Item | Value | Distance |
|---|---|---|
| Warren County, PA | 12,537 jobs · $1,041/wk · -3.3% YoY |
| NAICS sector | Jobs | Avg weekly wage | Location quotient | Jobs over the year |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Health care and social assistance | 2,402 | $852 | 1.27 | -2.2% |
| Manufacturing | 2,340 | $1,115 | 2.32 | -2.9% |
| Retail trade | 1,496 | $648 | 1.22 | -4.3% |
| Accommodation and food services | 822 | $340 | 0.73 | -2.6% |
| Finance and insurance | 612 | $2,263 | 1.20 | +0.0% |
| Other services | 501 | $389 | 1.34 | +1.0% |
| Management of companies | 475 | $2,448 | 2.26 | +0.0% |
| Transportation and warehousing | 473 | $975 | 0.90 | -3.1% |
| Professional and technical services | 229 | $1,108 | 0.26 | +0.0% |
| Educational services | 218 | $1,073 | 0.81 | -18.4% |
| Mining, oil and gas | 207 | $917 | 4.64 | +3.5% |
| Construction | 205 | $983 | 0.31 | -14.9% |
BLS Quarterly Census of Employment and Wages, all ownerships, total covered employment in the quarter's third month; over-the-year changes as published. Suppressed cells stay blank.
Drought #
No drought class at this point (USDM covers the United States only)
Sites found: 5, searched within 0 km of this place’s internal point. That is a disc around a point, not the area itself: sites outside the boundary are included, and sites inside it further than 0 km away are not.
US Drought Monitor current week; the highest class of any polygon containing the point.
Reservoirs #
5 USGS reservoir gauges, no capacity figures to weight
Sites found: 5, searched within 150 km of this place’s internal point. That is a disc around a point, not the area itself: sites outside the boundary are included, and sites inside it further than 150 km away are not.
| Site | Reading | Distance |
|---|---|---|
| Pymatuning Reservoir at Pymatuning Dam, PA | 1,008 ft (USGS, no capacity on file) | 104 km |
| First Fork Sinnemahoning Creek Reservoir | 922.0 ft (USGS, no capacity on file) | 116 km |
| Curwensville Lake near Curwensville, PA | 1,162 ft (USGS, no capacity on file) | 117 km |
| Lake Arthur at Moraine State Park, PA | 1,190 ft (USGS, no capacity on file) | 119 km |
| Kettle Cr Lake at Kettle Cr Dam near Westport, PA | 842.4 ft (USGS, no capacity on file) | 126 km |
Σ(capacity × percent full) / Σ capacity over TWDB reservoirs within 150 km. Texas only; elsewhere USGS reservoir elevation/storage is listed without a capacity to normalise by.
Stream gauges #
41 gauges · 0 flooding · 13 with quality panels averaging 100 % · 7 stale
Sites found: 41, searched within 75 km of this place’s internal point. That is a disc around a point, not the area itself: sites outside the boundary are included, and sites inside it further than 75 km away are not.
| Site | Reading | Distance |
|---|---|---|
| Brokenstraw Creek at Youngsville, PA | flow 102.0 ft³/s | 3 km |
| Allegheny River bl Conewango Creek at Warren, PA | flow 3,880 ft³/s | 12 km |
| Conewango Creek at Russell, PA | flow 188.0 ft³/s | 18 km |
| East Hickory Creek near Queen, PA | flow 1.40 ft³/s · STALE | 22 km |
| Allegheny River at Kinzua Dam, PA | flow 3,630 ft³/s · quality 100 % (3) | 24 km |
| Allegheny River below Kinzua Dam at Big Bend, PA | DO 9.60 mg/l · quality 100 % (2) | 24 km |
| Allegheny River at West Hickory, PA | flow 3,780 ft³/s | 31 km |
| CHADAKOIN RIVER AT FALCONER NY | flow 40.4 ft³/s | 32 km |
| Tionesta Creek at Lynch, PA | flow 94.3 ft³/s · quality 100 % (1) | 33 km |
| Tionesta Creek at Tionesta Creek Dam, PA | flow 191.0 ft³/s · quality 100 % (1) | 41 km |
USGS latest readings screened against EPA freshwater criteria (DO ≥ 5 mg/L, pH 6.5–9, conductance, turbidity, temperature); NWS flood categories where a NWPS gauge is co-located.
Groundwater #
23 wells in 0 named aquifers:
Sites found: 23, searched within 75 km of this place’s internal point. That is a disc around a point, not the area itself: sites outside the boundary are included, and sites inside it further than 75 km away are not.
| Site | Reading | Distance |
|---|---|---|
| USGS-415023079121201 | depth 37.8 ft · 1987-06-26 | 8 km |
| USGS-415546079180601 | depth 7.50 ft · 1986-10-09 | 11 km |
| USGS-414508079102001 | depth 0.44 ft · 1988-10-22 | 14 km |
| USGS-414443079104501 | depth 5.44 ft · 1987-10-22 | 14 km |
| USGS-414445079104101 | depth 2.77 ft · 1987-10-22 | 14 km |
| USGS-414159079213601 | depth 43.1 ft · 2026-10-05 | 16 km |
| USGS-414043079152001 | depth 48.0 ft · 1988-09-18 | 18 km |
| USGS-414055079243601 | depth 9.65 ft · 1988-08-17 | 19 km |
USGS latest daily water levels. A single latest reading says where the table is, not which way it is moving; select a well for its 365-day trace.
Water stress #
low (0.00)
Σ wᵢ·termᵢ / Σ wᵢ = 0.35×0.00 + 0.2×0.00 / 0.55
Banks & federal dollars #
$2.7 bn in deposits at 10 offices of 6 banks (SOD June 2026); HHI 7,975, highly concentrated. $335.5 m federal obligations in FY2026 (direct payments $279.1 m, contracts $32.4 m), $26,762 per covered job
| Item | Value | Distance |
|---|---|---|
| Northwest Bank | $2.4 bn · 89.1% share · 4 offices | |
| PNC Bank, National Association | $147.9 m · 5.5% share · 1 office | |
| CNB Bank | $68.9 m · 2.5% share · 1 office | |
| Warren, PA | $335.5 m FY2026 · $26,762/job | |
| MULTIPLE RECIPIENTS | $275.5 m · top recipient FY2026 |
| Institution | Deposits | Share | Offices |
|---|---|---|---|
| Northwest Bank | $2,412,076,000 | 89.1% | 4 |
| PNC Bank, National Association | $147,920,000 | 5.5% | 1 |
| CNB Bank | $68,851,000 | 2.5% | 1 |
| KeyBank National Association | $67,605,000 | 2.5% | 2 |
| Hamlin Bank and Trust Company | $7,308,000 | 0.3% | 1 |
| Woodforest National Bank | $4,436,000 | 0.2% | 1 |
Deposit concentration is 7,975 across 6 banks, which the 1995 Department of Justice bank merger screen calls highly concentrated.
HHI = Σ (share %)² over 6 banks with deposits in the county = 89.1² + 5.5² + 2.5² + … (3 more) = 7,975
FDIC Summary of Deposits: deposits at every insured office as of June 30, annual; HHI is the sum of squared county deposit shares (DOJ 1995 bank merger screen: 1000 / 1800). USAspending: obligations by place of performance for the latest complete federal fiscal year (Oct 1 to Sep 30), what agencies committed, not what they paid out; recipients are legal entities. Per-job divides obligations by BLS QCEW covered employment.
Federal obligations #
USAspending place-of-performance obligations for FY2026, by awarding agency.
| Awarding agency | Obligations |
|---|---|
| Social Security Administration | $247,193,609 |
| Department of Veterans Affairs | $28,388,259 |
| Department of Defense | $26,491,045 |
| Department of Transportation | $15,462,510 |
| Department of Agriculture | $8,642,532 |
| Department of Housing and Urban Development | $3,489,894 |
| Department of Health and Human Services | $2,584,251 |
| Department of the Interior | $1,592,357 |
| Railroad Retirement Board | $826,164 |
| Federal Communications Commission | $535,599 |
| Department of Education | $294,936 |
| General Services Administration | $19,636 |
That is $26,762 per covered job, against 12,537 jobs in the 2026 Q1 QCEW quarter.
per job = FY2026 obligations $335.5 m / 12,537 covered jobs (BLS QCEW 2026 Q1, all ownerships) = $26,762
USAspending obligations are recorded where the work is performed, so a prime award performed here is counted here even when the recipient is headquartered elsewhere. Recipients are legal entities, never people.
National context, not this county #
These are United States, single-gauge, single-state and port series. None of them is keyed to this county.
| Series | Latest | As of | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Mississippi River at Memphis, stage · ft | not published | not published | |
| Mississippi River at St. Louis, stage · ft | not published | not published | |
| Ohio River at Louisville, stage · ft | 12.69 | 2026-10-05 | +3.3% |
| Missouri River at St. Joseph, stage · ft | not published | not published | |
| Colorado River below Hoover Dam, flow (Hoover releases) · ft³/s | 5,170.00 | 2026-02-05 | -25.3% |
| Texas reservoirs, statewide percent full · % | 72.60 | 2026-10-06 | +0.0% |
| Laredo truck crossings, monthly · trucks | 258,700.00 | 2026-08-01 | -0.4% |
| Los Angeles + Long Beach container volume, annual · TEU | 10,513,167.00 | 2023-01-01 | -13.5% |
| Containerships waiting for a berth, all US ports · ships | 3.00 | 2026-10-06 | -50.0% |
| Shanghai to Los Angeles container rate · $ per 40 ft box | 7,848.00 | 2026-09-01 | +14.9% |
| US diesel retail price · $ per gallon | unavailable | not published | |
| WTI crude oil, spot · $ per barrel | 96.16 | 2026-09-29 | -3.2% |
| 30-year fixed mortgage rate · % | 7.28 | 2026-10-01 | +3.6% |
| Housing starts, annual rate · thousands of units | 1,275.00 | 2026-08-01 | -2.6% |
| Building permits, annual rate · thousands of units | 1,403.00 | 2026-08-01 | -2.1% |
| Case-Shiller US home price index · index, Jan 2000 = 100 | 337.31 | 2026-07-01 | +0.1% |
| Unemployment rate · % | 4.20 | 2026-09-01 | +2.4% |
| US goods and services trade balance, monthly · $ millions | -105,572.00 | 2026-08-01 | -13.7% |
| Retail sales excluding food services, monthly · $ millions | 646,347.00 | 2026-08-01 | +1.1% |
The indicator registry has no county-keyed series and no geographic selection: every entry is national, a named gauge, a single state or a port. They are here as the backdrop the county's own numbers move against, and they are never this county's readings.
What changed #
Warren County, PA: 10 findings, 1 at an alert level, 2 at a watch level and 7 noted
alertWarren County, PA's covered employment is -3.3% against a year earlier, an alert level here: covered employment at least 3 percent below the same quarter a year earlier (BLS QCEW over-the-year percent change, as published; convention chosen for this dashboard, not an official level). The previous published period is not in this table, so this is a standing level rather than a change.
Period 2026 Q1.Show the arithmetic
- test: jobs.yoy.emp = -3.3 <= -3
BLS QCEW over-the-year percent change, as published; convention chosen for this dashboard, not an official level
watchWarren County, PA's covered employment is -3.3% against a year earlier, a watch level here: covered employment below the same quarter a year earlier (BLS QCEW over-the-year percent change, as published; not an official level). The previous published period is not in this table, so this is a standing level rather than a change.
Period 2026 Q1.Show the arithmetic
- test: jobs.yoy.emp = -3.3 < 0
BLS QCEW over-the-year percent change, as published; not an official level
watchWarren County, PA's covered employment of 12,537 scores 60 on the 0-to-100 scale across US counties but 21 across Pennsylvania counties, a gap of 39 points.
Period 2026 Q1.Show the arithmetic
- 39 = |60 across US counties - 21 across Pennsylvania counties|
position among the entities that published this metric this period; not an official level
noteWarren County, PA's average weekly wage was 4.6% higher than the same quarter a year earlier in 2026 Q1, on BLS QCEW's published over-the-year change.
Period 2026 Q1.Show the arithmetic
- +4.6 % = BLS QCEW over-the-year percent change for 2026 Q1, as published
- the newest QCEW file carries no year-earlier level, so no move from one level to another is printed
BLS QCEW over-the-year percent change, as published
noteWarren County, PA's covered employment was 3.3% lower than the same quarter a year earlier in 2026 Q1, on BLS QCEW's published over-the-year change.
Period 2026 Q1.Show the arithmetic
- -3.3 % = BLS QCEW over-the-year percent change for 2026 Q1, as published
- the newest QCEW file carries no year-earlier level, so no move from one level to another is printed
BLS QCEW over-the-year percent change, as published
Read all 10 findings in the full brief
Every finding is produced by a fixed rule table and a fixed sentence for each rule. Nothing here is generated prose.