Caldwell County, TX

Home values #

Typical home $283,329 (Aug 2026), -5.5% over one year, -0.6% over five

• 65th pct · 1,063rd of 3,063 US counties · median $234,566
• 75th pct · 61st of 243 Texas counties · median $215,660
• 0th pct · 5th of 5 counties in the Austin-Round Rock-San Marcos metro · median $367,644

Zillow Home Value Index (ZHVI), typical value of homes in the 35th to 65th percentile, smoothed and seasonally adjusted; a model estimate of value, not a sale price. Data through Zillow Research.

Rents #

Typical rent $1,633/mo (Aug 2026), -1.2% over one year; price-to-rent 14.5

• 61st pct · 543rd of 1,399 US counties · median $1,496
• 78th pct · 24th of 106 Texas counties · median $1,483
• 50th pct · 3rd of 5 counties in the Austin-Round Rock-San Marcos metro · median $1,633

Zillow Observed Rent Index (ZORI), smoothed, all homes and multifamily; price-to-rent = typical home / (typical rent × 12).

What the typical home costs to carry #

Principal and interest of $1,551 a month on $283,329 at 7.28%, against an average weekly wage worth $4,853 a month: 32.0% of one job’s pay.

• payment = P·r / (1 − (1+r)^−n), P = $283,329 × 80% = $226,663, r = 7.28%/12 (Freddie Mac PMMS via FRED, 2026-10-01), n = 360 → $1,551/mo principal and interest
• wage share = payment / (avg weekly wage $1,120 × 52 / 12 = $4,853) = 32% of one average job's pay (BLS QCEW 2026 Q1, all covered jobs)
• years of wages = $283,329 / ($1,120 × 52) = 4.9
• price-to-rent = $283,329 / ($1,633 × 12) = 14.5

The wage is one covered job’s average, not a household’s income, so this is the share of a single paycheque and not a mortgage underwriting ratio.

Estimate. Principal and interest on the typical home with 20% down over 30 years at this week's Freddie Mac average rate; compared with the average weekly wage of all jobs covered by unemployment insurance in the area (BLS QCEW), which is pay per job, not household income.

Jobs & wages #

10,858 jobs at 896 employers (2026 Q1); -1.2% jobs and +6.0% average weekly wage over the year

• 56th pct · 1,396th of 3,221 US counties · median 8,232
• 64th pct · 90th of 254 Texas counties · median 6,022
• 0th pct · 5th of 5 counties in the Austin-Round Rock-San Marcos metro · median 99,377

BLS Quarterly Census of Employment and Wages, all ownerships, total covered employment in the quarter's third month; over-the-year changes as published. Suppressed cells stay blank.

Drought #

D2 severe drought

Sites found: 5, searched within 0 km of this place’s internal point. That is a disc around a point, not the area itself: sites outside the boundary are included, and sites inside it further than 0 km away are not.

US Drought Monitor current week; the highest class of any polygon containing the point.

Reservoirs #

91 % of conservation capacity, weighted over 15 TWDB reservoirs

Sites found: 22, searched within 150 km of this place’s internal point. That is a disc around a point, not the area itself: sites outside the boundary are included, and sites inside it further than 150 km away are not.

Σ(capacity × percent full) / Σ capacity over TWDB reservoirs within 150 km. Texas only; elsewhere USGS reservoir elevation/storage is listed without a capacity to normalise by.

Stream gauges #

102 gauges · 0 flooding · 6 with quality panels averaging 82 % · 10 stale

Sites found: 102, searched within 75 km of this place’s internal point. That is a disc around a point, not the area itself: sites outside the boundary are included, and sites inside it further than 75 km away are not.

USGS latest readings screened against EPA freshwater criteria (DO ≥ 5 mg/L, pH 6.5–9, conductance, turbidity, temperature); NWS flood categories where a NWPS gauge is co-located.

Groundwater #

13 wells in 2 named aquifers: Edwards-Trinity aquifer system, Texas coastal uplands aquifer system

Sites found: 13, searched within 75 km of this place’s internal point. That is a disc around a point, not the area itself: sites outside the boundary are included, and sites inside it further than 75 km away are not.

USGS latest daily water levels. A single latest reading says where the table is, not which way it is moving; select a well for its 365-day trace.

Water stress #

moderate (0.28)

Σ wᵢ·termᵢ / Σ wᵢ = 0.35×0.50 + 0.3×0.09 + 0.2×0.18 / 0.85

Banks & federal dollars #

$558.6 m in deposits at 7 offices of 6 banks (SOD June 2026); HHI 3,095, highly concentrated. $240.3 m federal obligations in FY2026 (direct payments $230.4 m, grants $9.1 m), $22,135 per covered job

Deposit concentration is 3,095 across 6 banks, which the 1995 Department of Justice bank merger screen calls highly concentrated.

HHI = Σ (share %)² over 6 banks with deposits in the county = 47.1² + 21.9² + 18.0² + … (3 more) = 3,095

FDIC Summary of Deposits: deposits at every insured office as of June 30, annual; HHI is the sum of squared county deposit shares (DOJ 1995 bank merger screen: 1000 / 1800). USAspending: obligations by place of performance for the latest complete federal fiscal year (Oct 1 to Sep 30), what agencies committed, not what they paid out; recipients are legal entities. Per-job divides obligations by BLS QCEW covered employment.

Federal obligations #

USAspending place-of-performance obligations for FY2026, by awarding agency.

That is $22,135 per covered job, against 10,858 jobs in the 2026 Q1 QCEW quarter.

per job = FY2026 obligations $240.3 m / 10,858 covered jobs (BLS QCEW 2026 Q1, all ownerships) = $22,135

USAspending obligations are recorded where the work is performed, so a prime award performed here is counted here even when the recipient is headquartered elsewhere. Recipients are legal entities, never people.

National context, not this county #

These are United States, single-gauge, single-state and port series. None of them is keyed to this county.

The indicator registry has no county-keyed series and no geographic selection: every entry is national, a named gauge, a single state or a port. They are here as the backdrop the county's own numbers move against, and they are never this county's readings.

What changed #

Caldwell County, TX: 17 findings, 1 at an alert level, 3 at a watch level and 13 noted

1. alertCaldwell County, TX's typical home value is -5.5% against a year earlier, an alert level here: typical home value at least 5 percent below a year ago (arithmetic on Zillow ZHVI, county and metro files; convention chosen for this dashboard, not an official level). The previous published period is not in this table, so this is a standing level rather than a change.

   Period 2026-08.
   Show the arithmetic

   • test: home.yoyPct = -5.528964363693999 <= -5

   arithmetic on Zillow ZHVI, county and metro files; convention chosen for this dashboard, not an official level

2. watchCaldwell County, TX's typical home value is -5.5% against a year earlier, a watch level here: typical home value below a year ago (arithmetic on Zillow ZHVI, county and metro files; not an official level). The previous published period is not in this table, so this is a standing level rather than a change.

   Period 2026-08.
   Show the arithmetic

   • test: home.yoyPct = -5.528964363693999 < 0

   arithmetic on Zillow ZHVI, county and metro files; not an official level

3. watchCaldwell County, TX's covered employment is -1.2% against a year earlier, a watch level here: covered employment below the same quarter a year earlier (BLS QCEW over-the-year percent change, as published; not an official level). The previous published period is not in this table, so this is a standing level rather than a change.

   Period 2026 Q1.
   Show the arithmetic

   • test: jobs.yoy.emp = -1.2 < 0

   BLS QCEW over-the-year percent change, as published; not an official level

4. watchCaldwell County, TX's typical asking rent is -1.2% against the previous month, a watch level here: typical asking rent at least 1 percent below the previous month (arithmetic on the Zillow ZORI month columns; convention chosen for this dashboard, not an official level). The previous published period is not in this table, so this is a standing level rather than a change.

   Period 2026-08.
   Show the arithmetic

   • test: rent.momPct = -1.173912263981728 <= -1
   • month-over-month percent change = (newest month − previous month) / |previous month| × 100, from Zillow's own published month columns

   arithmetic on the Zillow ZORI month columns; convention chosen for this dashboard, not an official level

5. noteCaldwell County, TX's average weekly wage was 6.0% higher than the same quarter a year earlier in 2026 Q1, on BLS QCEW's published over-the-year change.

   Period 2026 Q1.
   Show the arithmetic

   • +6 % = BLS QCEW over-the-year percent change for 2026 Q1, as published
   • the newest QCEW file carries no year-earlier level, so no move from one level to another is printed

   BLS QCEW over-the-year percent change, as published

Read all 12 findings in the full brief

Every finding is produced by a fixed rule table and a fixed sentence for each rule. Nothing here is generated prose.