Caroline County, VA
Housing, jobs, water, deposits and federal obligations for this county, each figure with the release it came from. Internal point 38.03, -77.35.
Assembled 2026-10-07. Read the brief.
- 80th pct · 591st of 3,063 US counties · median $234,566
- 62nd pct · 50th of 133 Virginia counties · median $307,999
- 62nd pct · 1,141st of 3,063 US counties · median +2.9%
- 71st pct · 39th of 133 Virginia counties · median +2.9%
- 89th pct · 154th of 1,399 US counties · median $1,496
- 84th pct · 13th of 79 Virginia counties · median $1,757
- 46th pct · 1,720th of 3,221 US counties · median 8,232
- 43rd pct · 76th of 133 Virginia counties · median 9,944
- 34th pct · 2,101st of 3,221 US counties · median $1,039
- 31st pct · 91st of 133 Virginia counties · median $1,048
- 89th pct · 331st of 3,063 US counties · median 4.3
- 77th pct · 31st of 133 Virginia counties · median 5.4
Typical home value divided by the average annual wage of one covered job.
A percentile here is a min-max scaling of average rank: the smallest published value in the cohort is 0 and the largest is 100, and tied values share the average of the ranks they span. It is not the share of entities below the value, so 0 means smallest, not none below. Entities that did not publish the metric are outside the cohort entirely and are counted in neither the rank nor its denominator.
Home values #
Typical home $360,427 (Aug 2026), +4.1% over one year, +24.1% over five
- 80th pct · 591st of 3,063 US counties · median $234,566
- 62nd pct · 50th of 133 Virginia counties · median $307,999
| Item | Value | Distance |
|---|---|---|
| Caroline County, VA | $360,427 · +4.1% 1-yr |
Zillow Home Value Index (ZHVI), typical value of homes in the 35th to 65th percentile, smoothed and seasonally adjusted; a model estimate of value, not a sale price. Data through Zillow Research.
Rents #
Typical rent $2,166/mo (Aug 2026), n/a over one year; price-to-rent 13.9
- 89th pct · 154th of 1,399 US counties · median $1,496
- 84th pct · 13th of 79 Virginia counties · median $1,757
| Item | Value | Distance |
|---|---|---|
| Caroline County, VA | $2,166/mo · n/a 1-yr |
Zillow Observed Rent Index (ZORI), smoothed, all homes and multifamily; price-to-rent = typical home / (typical rent × 12).
What the typical home costs to carry #
Principal and interest of $1,973 a month on $360,427 at 7.28%, against an average weekly wage worth $4,203 a month: 46.9% of one job’s pay.
- payment = P·r / (1 − (1+r)^−n), P = $360,427 × 80% = $288,342, r = 7.28%/12 (Freddie Mac PMMS via FRED, 2026-10-01), n = 360 → $1,973/mo principal and interest
- wage share = payment / (avg weekly wage $970 × 52 / 12 = $4,203) = 47% of one average job's pay (BLS QCEW 2026 Q1, all covered jobs)
- years of wages = $360,427 / ($970 × 52) = 7.1
- price-to-rent = $360,427 / ($2,166 × 12) = 13.9
The wage is one covered job’s average, not a household’s income, so this is the share of a single paycheque and not a mortgage underwriting ratio.
Estimate. Principal and interest on the typical home with 20% down over 30 years at this week's Freddie Mac average rate; compared with the average weekly wage of all jobs covered by unemployment insurance in the area (BLS QCEW), which is pay per job, not household income.
Jobs & wages #
7,192 jobs at 763 employers (2026 Q1); +2.6% jobs and +5.3% average weekly wage over the year
- 46th pct · 1,720th of 3,221 US counties · median 8,232
- 43rd pct · 76th of 133 Virginia counties · median 9,944
| Item | Value | Distance |
|---|---|---|
| Caroline County, VA | 7,192 jobs · $970/wk · +2.6% YoY |
| NAICS sector | Jobs | Avg weekly wage | Location quotient | Jobs over the year |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Administrative and waste services | 1,331 | $655 | 3.26 | +3.0% |
| Retail trade | 746 | $583 | 1.06 | +17.1% |
| Accommodation and food services | 439 | $562 | 0.68 | +1.4% |
| Construction | 365 | $1,157 | 0.97 | +1.4% |
| Other services | 331 | $628 | 1.54 | +9.6% |
| Manufacturing | 296 | $1,155 | 0.51 | -10.0% |
| Transportation and warehousing | 285 | $1,144 | 0.94 | +7.5% |
| Wholesale trade | 262 | $1,188 | 0.95 | -28.6% |
| Professional and technical services | 204 | $1,842 | 0.41 | +0.0% |
| Utilities | 138 | $2,585 | 4.86 | +7.8% |
| Arts, entertainment and recreation | 67 | $779 | 0.57 | +3.1% |
| Finance and insurance | 59 | $1,596 | 0.20 | -13.2% |
BLS Quarterly Census of Employment and Wages, all ownerships, total covered employment in the quarter's third month; over-the-year changes as published. Suppressed cells stay blank.
Drought #
No drought class at this point (USDM covers the United States only)
Sites found: 5, searched within 0 km of this place’s internal point. That is a disc around a point, not the area itself: sites outside the boundary are included, and sites inside it further than 0 km away are not.
US Drought Monitor current week; the highest class of any polygon containing the point.
Reservoirs #
Surface water layer not loaded
Sites found: 0, searched within 150 km of this place’s internal point. That is a disc around a point, not the area itself: sites outside the boundary are included, and sites inside it further than 150 km away are not.
Σ(capacity × percent full) / Σ capacity over TWDB reservoirs within 150 km. Texas only; elsewhere USGS reservoir elevation/storage is listed without a capacity to normalise by.
Stream gauges #
Surface water layer not loaded
Sites found: 0, searched within 75 km of this place’s internal point. That is a disc around a point, not the area itself: sites outside the boundary are included, and sites inside it further than 75 km away are not.
USGS latest readings screened against EPA freshwater criteria (DO ≥ 5 mg/L, pH 6.5–9, conductance, turbidity, temperature); NWS flood categories where a NWPS gauge is co-located.
Groundwater #
No USGS monitoring wells within 75 km (or above 1,500 km)
Sites found: 0, searched within 75 km of this place’s internal point. That is a disc around a point, not the area itself: sites outside the boundary are included, and sites inside it further than 75 km away are not.
USGS latest daily water levels. A single latest reading says where the table is, not which way it is moving; select a well for its 365-day trace.
Water stress #
low (0.00)
Σ wᵢ·termᵢ / Σ wᵢ = 0.35×0.00 / 0.35
Banks & federal dollars #
$1.4 bn in deposits at 2 offices of 1 banks (SOD June 2026); HHI 10,000, highly concentrated. $256.7 m federal obligations in FY2026 (direct payments $213.4 m, contracts $22.7 m), $35,686 per covered job
| Item | Value | Distance |
|---|---|---|
| Atlantic Union Bank | $1.4 bn · 100.0% share · 2 offices | |
| Caroline, VA | $256.7 m FY2026 · $35,686/job | |
| MULTIPLE RECIPIENTS | $208.5 m · top recipient FY2026 |
| Institution | Deposits | Share | Offices |
|---|---|---|---|
| Atlantic Union Bank | $1,359,949,000 | 100.0% | 2 |
Deposit concentration is 10,000 across 1 banks, which the 1995 Department of Justice bank merger screen calls highly concentrated.
HHI = Σ (share %)² over 1 banks with deposits in the county = 100.0² = 10,000
FDIC Summary of Deposits: deposits at every insured office as of June 30, annual; HHI is the sum of squared county deposit shares (DOJ 1995 bank merger screen: 1000 / 1800). USAspending: obligations by place of performance for the latest complete federal fiscal year (Oct 1 to Sep 30), what agencies committed, not what they paid out; recipients are legal entities. Per-job divides obligations by BLS QCEW covered employment.
Federal obligations #
USAspending place-of-performance obligations for FY2026, by awarding agency.
| Awarding agency | Obligations |
|---|---|
| Social Security Administration | $163,159,092 |
| Department of Veterans Affairs | $44,310,139 |
| Department of Defense | $20,884,980 |
| Department of Transportation | $17,047,214 |
| Department of Agriculture | $4,203,223 |
| Department of Homeland Security | $2,316,699 |
| Railroad Retirement Board | $1,682,045 |
| Department of Health and Human Services | $1,638,059 |
| Federal Communications Commission | $737,503 |
| Department of Housing and Urban Development | $422,694 |
| Department of the Interior | $304,733 |
| General Services Administration | $19,963 |
That is $35,686 per covered job, against 7,192 jobs in the 2026 Q1 QCEW quarter.
per job = FY2026 obligations $256.7 m / 7,192 covered jobs (BLS QCEW 2026 Q1, all ownerships) = $35,686
USAspending obligations are recorded where the work is performed, so a prime award performed here is counted here even when the recipient is headquartered elsewhere. Recipients are legal entities, never people.
National context, not this county #
These are United States, single-gauge, single-state and port series. None of them is keyed to this county.
| Series | Latest | As of | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Mississippi River at Memphis, stage · ft | not published | not published | |
| Mississippi River at St. Louis, stage · ft | not published | not published | |
| Ohio River at Louisville, stage · ft | 12.69 | 2026-10-05 | +3.3% |
| Missouri River at St. Joseph, stage · ft | not published | not published | |
| Colorado River below Hoover Dam, flow (Hoover releases) · ft³/s | 5,170.00 | 2026-02-05 | -25.3% |
| Texas reservoirs, statewide percent full · % | 72.60 | 2026-10-06 | +0.0% |
| Laredo truck crossings, monthly · trucks | 258,700.00 | 2026-08-01 | -0.4% |
| Los Angeles + Long Beach container volume, annual · TEU | 10,513,167.00 | 2023-01-01 | -13.5% |
| Containerships waiting for a berth, all US ports · ships | 3.00 | 2026-10-06 | -50.0% |
| Shanghai to Los Angeles container rate · $ per 40 ft box | 7,848.00 | 2026-09-01 | +14.9% |
| US diesel retail price · $ per gallon | unavailable | not published | |
| WTI crude oil, spot · $ per barrel | 96.16 | 2026-09-29 | -3.2% |
| 30-year fixed mortgage rate · % | 7.28 | 2026-10-01 | +3.6% |
| Housing starts, annual rate · thousands of units | 1,275.00 | 2026-08-01 | -2.6% |
| Building permits, annual rate · thousands of units | 1,403.00 | 2026-08-01 | -2.1% |
| Case-Shiller US home price index · index, Jan 2000 = 100 | 337.31 | 2026-07-01 | +0.1% |
| Unemployment rate · % | 4.20 | 2026-09-01 | +2.4% |
| US goods and services trade balance, monthly · $ millions | -105,572.00 | 2026-08-01 | -13.7% |
| Retail sales excluding food services, monthly · $ millions | 646,347.00 | 2026-08-01 | +1.1% |
The indicator registry has no county-keyed series and no geographic selection: every entry is national, a named gauge, a single state or a port. They are here as the backdrop the county's own numbers move against, and they are never this county's readings.
What changed #
Caroline County, VA: 8 findings, 8 noted
noteCaroline County, VA's average weekly wage was 5.3% higher than the same quarter a year earlier in 2026 Q1, on BLS QCEW's published over-the-year change.
Period 2026 Q1.Show the arithmetic
- +5.3 % = BLS QCEW over-the-year percent change for 2026 Q1, as published
- the newest QCEW file carries no year-earlier level, so no move from one level to another is printed
BLS QCEW over-the-year percent change, as published
noteCaroline County, VA's covered employment was 2.6% higher than the same quarter a year earlier in 2026 Q1, on BLS QCEW's published over-the-year change.
Period 2026 Q1.Show the arithmetic
- +2.6 % = BLS QCEW over-the-year percent change for 2026 Q1, as published
- the newest QCEW file carries no year-earlier level, so no move from one level to another is printed
BLS QCEW over-the-year percent change, as published
noteCaroline County, VA's typical asking rent fell 0.7% from $2,181 in July 2026 to $2,166 in August 2026, on Zillow ZORI.
Period 2026-08.Show the arithmetic
- -0.7% = (2165.8333333333335 - 2181.2546489065408) / 2181.2546489065408 × 100
- 2165.8333333333335 = Zillow ZORI, 2026-08
- 2181.2546489065408 = Zillow ZORI, 2026-07
noteCaroline County, VA's momentum index of 0.71 ranks 6th of 133 Virginia counties, against a median of 0.26.
Period 2026-08.Show the arithmetic
- 96 on the 0-to-100 scale across 133 Virginia counties that published momentum
- momentum = Σ wᵢ · clip(changeᵢ / scaleᵢ, −1, 1) / Σ wᵢ over the terms present; weights and scales: home value 1-yr change 0.3 (±10%), rent 1-yr change 0.15 (±10%), jobs over-the-year change 0.3 (±3%), avg weekly wage over-the-year change 0.25 (±6%)
position among the entities that published this metric this period; not an official level
noteCaroline County, VA's momentum index of 0.71 ranks 182nd of 3,221 US counties, against a median of 0.23.
Period 2026-08.Show the arithmetic
- 94 on the 0-to-100 scale across 3221 US counties that published momentum
- momentum = Σ wᵢ · clip(changeᵢ / scaleᵢ, −1, 1) / Σ wᵢ over the terms present; weights and scales: home value 1-yr change 0.3 (±10%), rent 1-yr change 0.15 (±10%), jobs over-the-year change 0.3 (±3%), avg weekly wage over-the-year change 0.25 (±6%)
position among the entities that published this metric this period; not an official level
Read all 8 findings in the full brief
Every finding is produced by a fixed rule table and a fixed sentence for each rule. Nothing here is generated prose.