Lancaster County, VA

Home values #

Typical home $399,832 (Aug 2026), +5.5% over one year, +28.3% over five

• 86th pct · 427th of 3,063 US counties · median $234,566
• 74th pct · 35th of 133 Virginia counties · median $307,999

Zillow Home Value Index (ZHVI), typical value of homes in the 35th to 65th percentile, smoothed and seasonally adjusted; a model estimate of value, not a sale price. Data through Zillow Research.

Rents #

Zillow publishes no rent index for this area (ZORI covers about 1,400 counties)

• US counties: not published this period
• Virginia counties: not published this period

Zillow Observed Rent Index (ZORI), smoothed, all homes and multifamily; price-to-rent = typical home / (typical rent × 12).

What the typical home costs to carry #

Principal and interest of $2,189 a month on $399,832 at 7.28%, against an average weekly wage worth $4,606 a month: 47.5% of one job’s pay.

• payment = P·r / (1 − (1+r)^−n), P = $399,832 × 80% = $319,866, r = 7.28%/12 (Freddie Mac PMMS via FRED, 2026-10-01), n = 360 → $2,189/mo principal and interest
• wage share = payment / (avg weekly wage $1,063 × 52 / 12 = $4,606) = 48% of one average job's pay (BLS QCEW 2026 Q1, all covered jobs)
• years of wages = $399,832 / ($1,063 × 52) = 7.2

The wage is one covered job’s average, not a household’s income, so this is the share of a single paycheque and not a mortgage underwriting ratio.

Estimate. Principal and interest on the typical home with 20% down over 30 years at this week's Freddie Mac average rate; compared with the average weekly wage of all jobs covered by unemployment insurance in the area (BLS QCEW), which is pay per job, not household income.

Jobs & wages #

4,642 jobs at 568 employers (2026 Q1); -0.6% jobs and +6.3% average weekly wage over the year

• 35th pct · 2,085th of 3,221 US counties · median 8,232
• 33rd pct · 89th of 133 Virginia counties · median 9,944

BLS Quarterly Census of Employment and Wages, all ownerships, total covered employment in the quarter's third month; over-the-year changes as published. Suppressed cells stay blank.

Drought #

D0 abnormally dry

Sites found: 5, searched within 0 km of this place’s internal point. That is a disc around a point, not the area itself: sites outside the boundary are included, and sites inside it further than 0 km away are not.

US Drought Monitor current week; the highest class of any polygon containing the point.

Reservoirs #

No reservoir gauges within 150 km (or the camera is above the gauge altitude)

Sites found: 0, searched within 150 km of this place’s internal point. That is a disc around a point, not the area itself: sites outside the boundary are included, and sites inside it further than 150 km away are not.

Σ(capacity × percent full) / Σ capacity over TWDB reservoirs within 150 km. Texas only; elsewhere USGS reservoir elevation/storage is listed without a capacity to normalise by.

Stream gauges #

20 gauges · 0 flooding · 11 with quality panels averaging 85 % · 9 stale

Sites found: 20, searched within 75 km of this place’s internal point. That is a disc around a point, not the area itself: sites outside the boundary are included, and sites inside it further than 75 km away are not.

USGS latest readings screened against EPA freshwater criteria (DO ≥ 5 mg/L, pH 6.5–9, conductance, turbidity, temperature); NWS flood categories where a NWPS gauge is co-located.

Groundwater #

132 wells in 0 named aquifers:

Sites found: 132, searched within 75 km of this place’s internal point. That is a disc around a point, not the area itself: sites outside the boundary are included, and sites inside it further than 75 km away are not.

USGS latest daily water levels. A single latest reading says where the table is, not which way it is moving; select a well for its 365-day trace.

Water stress #

low (0.06)

Σ wᵢ·termᵢ / Σ wᵢ = 0.35×0.00 + 0.2×0.15 / 0.55

Banks & federal dollars #

$726.8 m in deposits at 10 offices of 4 banks (SOD June 2026); HHI 4,872, highly concentrated. $125.1 m federal obligations in FY2026 (direct payments $123.5 m, grants $1.3 m), $26,947 per covered job

Deposit concentration is 4,872 across 4 banks, which the 1995 Department of Justice bank merger screen calls highly concentrated.

HHI = Σ (share %)² over 4 banks with deposits in the county = 64.4² + 24.9² + 10.4² + … (1 more) = 4,872

FDIC Summary of Deposits: deposits at every insured office as of June 30, annual; HHI is the sum of squared county deposit shares (DOJ 1995 bank merger screen: 1000 / 1800). USAspending: obligations by place of performance for the latest complete federal fiscal year (Oct 1 to Sep 30), what agencies committed, not what they paid out; recipients are legal entities. Per-job divides obligations by BLS QCEW covered employment.

Federal obligations #

USAspending place-of-performance obligations for FY2026, by awarding agency.

That is $26,947 per covered job, against 4,642 jobs in the 2026 Q1 QCEW quarter.

per job = FY2026 obligations $125.1 m / 4,642 covered jobs (BLS QCEW 2026 Q1, all ownerships) = $26,947

USAspending obligations are recorded where the work is performed, so a prime award performed here is counted here even when the recipient is headquartered elsewhere. Recipients are legal entities, never people.

National context, not this county #

These are United States, single-gauge, single-state and port series. None of them is keyed to this county.

The indicator registry has no county-keyed series and no geographic selection: every entry is national, a named gauge, a single state or a port. They are here as the backdrop the county's own numbers move against, and they are never this county's readings.

What changed #

Lancaster County, VA: 5 findings, 1 at a watch level and 4 noted

1. watchLancaster County, VA's covered employment is -0.6% against a year earlier, a watch level here: covered employment below the same quarter a year earlier (BLS QCEW over-the-year percent change, as published; not an official level). The previous published period is not in this table, so this is a standing level rather than a change.

   Period 2026 Q1.
   Show the arithmetic

   • test: jobs.yoy.emp = -0.6 < 0

   BLS QCEW over-the-year percent change, as published; not an official level

2. noteLancaster County, VA's average weekly wage was 6.3% higher than the same quarter a year earlier in 2026 Q1, on BLS QCEW's published over-the-year change.

   Period 2026 Q1.
   Show the arithmetic

   • +6.3 % = BLS QCEW over-the-year percent change for 2026 Q1, as published
   • the newest QCEW file carries no year-earlier level, so no move from one level to another is printed

   BLS QCEW over-the-year percent change, as published

3. noteLancaster County, VA's covered employment was 0.6% lower than the same quarter a year earlier in 2026 Q1, on BLS QCEW's published over-the-year change.

   Period 2026 Q1.
   Show the arithmetic

   • -0.6 % = BLS QCEW over-the-year percent change for 2026 Q1, as published
   • the newest QCEW file carries no year-earlier level, so no move from one level to another is printed

   BLS QCEW over-the-year percent change, as published

4. noteLancaster County, VA's typical home value rose 0.5% from $397,688 in July 2026 to $399,832 in August 2026, on Zillow ZHVI.

   Period 2026-08.
   Show the arithmetic

   • +0.5% = (399832.1725776817 - 397687.5843910423) / 397687.5843910423 × 100
   • 399832.1725776817 = Zillow ZHVI, 2026-08
   • 397687.5843910423 = Zillow ZHVI, 2026-07

5. noteThe next Zillow ZHVI typical home value (monthly) covering Lancaster County, VA is due between 2026-10-14 and 2026-10-21, estimated from the publisher's past release pattern.

   Show the arithmetic

   • window = 2026-10-14 to 2026-10-21, estimated from the publisher's past release pattern

   estimated from the publisher's past release pattern; not an announced date

Read the full brief

Every finding is produced by a fixed rule table and a fixed sentence for each rule. Nothing here is generated prose.