Northumberland County, VA
Housing, jobs, water, deposits and federal obligations for this county, each figure with the release it came from. Internal point 37.86, -76.38.
Assembled 2026-10-06. Read the brief.
- 82nd pct · 540th of 3,063 US counties · median $234,566
- 67th pct · 44th of 133 Virginia counties · median $307,999
- 41st pct · 1,786th of 3,063 US counties · median +2.9%
- 34th pct · 88th of 133 Virginia counties · median +2.9%
- US counties: not published this period
- Virginia counties: not published this period
- 17th pct · 2,645th of 3,221 US counties · median 8,232
- 8th pct · 122nd of 133 Virginia counties · median 9,944
- 33rd pct · 2,137th of 3,221 US counties · median $1,039
- 29th pct · 94th of 133 Virginia counties · median $1,048
- 90th pct · 286th of 3,063 US counties · median 4.3
- 81st pct · 25th of 133 Virginia counties · median 5.4
Typical home value divided by the average annual wage of one covered job.
A percentile here is a min-max scaling of average rank: the smallest published value in the cohort is 0 and the largest is 100, and tied values share the average of the ranks they span. It is not the share of entities below the value, so 0 means smallest, not none below. Entities that did not publish the metric are outside the cohort entirely and are counted in neither the rank nor its denominator.
Home values #
Typical home $371,939 (Aug 2026), +2.2% over one year, +14.8% over five
- 82nd pct · 540th of 3,063 US counties · median $234,566
- 67th pct · 44th of 133 Virginia counties · median $307,999
| Item | Value | Distance |
|---|---|---|
| Northumberland County, VA | $371,939 · +2.2% 1-yr |
Zillow Home Value Index (ZHVI), typical value of homes in the 35th to 65th percentile, smoothed and seasonally adjusted; a model estimate of value, not a sale price. Data through Zillow Research.
Rents #
Zillow publishes no rent index for this area (ZORI covers about 1,400 counties)
- US counties: not published this period
- Virginia counties: not published this period
Zillow Observed Rent Index (ZORI), smoothed, all homes and multifamily; price-to-rent = typical home / (typical rent × 12).
What the typical home costs to carry #
Principal and interest of $2,036 a month on $371,939 at 7.28%, against an average weekly wage worth $4,186 a month: 48.6% of one job’s pay.
- payment = P·r / (1 − (1+r)^−n), P = $371,939 × 80% = $297,551, r = 7.28%/12 (Freddie Mac PMMS via FRED, 2026-10-01), n = 360 → $2,036/mo principal and interest
- wage share = payment / (avg weekly wage $966 × 52 / 12 = $4,186) = 49% of one average job's pay (BLS QCEW 2026 Q1, all covered jobs)
- years of wages = $371,939 / ($966 × 52) = 7.4
The wage is one covered job’s average, not a household’s income, so this is the share of a single paycheque and not a mortgage underwriting ratio.
Estimate. Principal and interest on the typical home with 20% down over 30 years at this week's Freddie Mac average rate; compared with the average weekly wage of all jobs covered by unemployment insurance in the area (BLS QCEW), which is pay per job, not household income.
Jobs & wages #
2,189 jobs at 387 employers (2026 Q1); -0.8% jobs and +8.3% average weekly wage over the year
- 17th pct · 2,645th of 3,221 US counties · median 8,232
- 8th pct · 122nd of 133 Virginia counties · median 9,944
| Item | Value | Distance |
|---|---|---|
| Northumberland County, VA | 2,189 jobs · $966/wk · -0.8% YoY |
| NAICS sector | Jobs | Avg weekly wage | Location quotient | Jobs over the year |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Manufacturing | 456 | $1,007 | 2.59 | -1.7% |
| Retail trade | 280 | $627 | 1.31 | -0.7% |
| Construction | 171 | $916 | 1.49 | +3.6% |
| Other services | 109 | $813 | 1.67 | +0.0% |
| Arts, entertainment and recreation | 107 | $547 | 2.97 | +3.9% |
| Accommodation and food services | 98 | $544 | 0.50 | -10.9% |
| Agriculture, forestry, fishing | 72 | $2,389 | 4.55 | -8.9% |
| Administrative and waste services | 48 | $1,167 | 0.39 | +0.0% |
| Finance and insurance | 46 | $1,055 | 0.52 | -11.5% |
| Wholesale trade | 35 | $820 | 0.42 | -2.8% |
| Transportation and warehousing | 33 | $742 | 0.36 | -25.0% |
| Unclassified | 15 | $509 | 3.22 | +0.0% |
BLS Quarterly Census of Employment and Wages, all ownerships, total covered employment in the quarter's third month; over-the-year changes as published. Suppressed cells stay blank.
Drought #
No drought class at this point (USDM covers the United States only)
Sites found: 5, searched within 0 km of this place’s internal point. That is a disc around a point, not the area itself: sites outside the boundary are included, and sites inside it further than 0 km away are not.
US Drought Monitor current week; the highest class of any polygon containing the point.
Reservoirs #
No reservoir gauges within 150 km (or the camera is above the gauge altitude)
Sites found: 0, searched within 150 km of this place’s internal point. That is a disc around a point, not the area itself: sites outside the boundary are included, and sites inside it further than 150 km away are not.
Σ(capacity × percent full) / Σ capacity over TWDB reservoirs within 150 km. Texas only; elsewhere USGS reservoir elevation/storage is listed without a capacity to normalise by.
Stream gauges #
38 gauges · 0 flooding · 6 with quality panels averaging 75 % · 10 stale
Sites found: 38, searched within 75 km of this place’s internal point. That is a disc around a point, not the area itself: sites outside the boundary are included, and sites inside it further than 75 km away are not.
| Site | Reading | Distance |
|---|---|---|
| USGS-381922076043001 | temp 18.4 °C · quality 50 % (2) · STALE | 58 km |
| FARM CREEK NEAR TODDVILLE, MD | stage 0.13 ft · quality 50 % (2) · STALE | 57 km |
| USGS-381922076043002 | temp 10.1 °C · quality 50 % (2) · STALE | 58 km |
| Potomac River at Lewisetta (IN MLLW) | no flooding | 17 km |
| Chesapeake Bay at Windmill Point (IN MLLW) | no flooding | 28 km |
| St. George Creek at Straits Point (IN MLLW) | no flooding | 33 km |
| Chesapeake Bay at Port Isobel/Tangier Island (IN MLLW) | no flooding | 35 km |
| DRAGON SWAMP AT MASCOT, VA | flow 23.7 ft³/s · quality 100 % (1) | 37 km |
| Piankatank River above Wharf Creek near Hudgins VA (IN MLLW) | no flooding | 41 km |
| St Marys River at Great Mills, MD | flow 12.1 ft³/s · no flooding | 44 km |
USGS latest readings screened against EPA freshwater criteria (DO ≥ 5 mg/L, pH 6.5–9, conductance, turbidity, temperature); NWS flood categories where a NWPS gauge is co-located.
Groundwater #
113 wells in 0 named aquifers:
Sites found: 113, searched within 75 km of this place’s internal point. That is a disc around a point, not the area itself: sites outside the boundary are included, and sites inside it further than 75 km away are not.
| Site | Reading | Distance |
|---|---|---|
| USGS-375213076190210 | depth 57.9 ft · 2020-04-07 | 6 km |
| USGS-375213076190209 | depth 70.2 ft · 2020-04-07 | 6 km |
| USGS-375213076190208 | depth 97.1 ft · 2020-04-07 | 6 km |
| USGS-375213076190207 | depth 105.9 ft · 2020-04-07 | 6 km |
| USGS-375213076190206 | depth 108.3 ft · 2020-04-07 | 6 km |
| USGS-375213076190205 | depth 160.0 ft · 2020-04-07 | 6 km |
| USGS-375213076190204 | depth 160.1 ft · 2020-04-07 | 6 km |
| USGS-375213076190203 | depth 160.3 ft · 2020-04-07 | 6 km |
USGS latest daily water levels. A single latest reading says where the table is, not which way it is moving; select a well for its 365-day trace.
Water stress #
low (0.09)
Σ wᵢ·termᵢ / Σ wᵢ = 0.35×0.00 + 0.2×0.25 / 0.55
Banks & federal dollars #
$364.6 m in deposits at 7 offices of 4 banks (SOD June 2026); HHI 3,670, highly concentrated. $132.2 m federal obligations in FY2026 (direct payments $131.1 m, grants $1.1 m), $60,396 per covered job
| Item | Value | Distance |
|---|---|---|
| Primis Bank | $198.3 m · 54.4% share · 3 offices | |
| United Bank | $66.5 m · 18.2% share · 2 offices | |
| Atlantic Union Bank | $55.2 m · 15.1% share · 1 office | |
| Northumberland, VA | $132.2 m FY2026 · $60,396/job | |
| MULTIPLE RECIPIENTS | $129.7 m · top recipient FY2026 |
| Institution | Deposits | Share | Offices |
|---|---|---|---|
| Primis Bank | $198,319,000 | 54.4% | 3 |
| United Bank | $66,481,000 | 18.2% | 2 |
| Atlantic Union Bank | $55,210,000 | 15.1% | 1 |
| Blue Ridge Bank, National Association | $44,620,000 | 12.2% | 1 |
Deposit concentration is 3,670 across 4 banks, which the 1995 Department of Justice bank merger screen calls highly concentrated.
HHI = Σ (share %)² over 4 banks with deposits in the county = 54.4² + 18.2² + 15.1² + … (1 more) = 3,670
FDIC Summary of Deposits: deposits at every insured office as of June 30, annual; HHI is the sum of squared county deposit shares (DOJ 1995 bank merger screen: 1000 / 1800). USAspending: obligations by place of performance for the latest complete federal fiscal year (Oct 1 to Sep 30), what agencies committed, not what they paid out; recipients are legal entities. Per-job divides obligations by BLS QCEW covered employment.
Federal obligations #
USAspending place-of-performance obligations for FY2026, by awarding agency.
| Awarding agency | Obligations |
|---|---|
| Social Security Administration | $119,561,199 |
| Department of Veterans Affairs | $9,515,030 |
| Department of Agriculture | $1,326,647 |
| Department of Transportation | $1,052,108 |
| Railroad Retirement Board | $579,456 |
| Federal Communications Commission | $173,476 |
That is $60,396 per covered job, against 2,189 jobs in the 2026 Q1 QCEW quarter.
per job = FY2026 obligations $132.2 m / 2,189 covered jobs (BLS QCEW 2026 Q1, all ownerships) = $60,396
USAspending obligations are recorded where the work is performed, so a prime award performed here is counted here even when the recipient is headquartered elsewhere. Recipients are legal entities, never people.
National context, not this county #
These are United States, single-gauge, single-state and port series. None of them is keyed to this county.
| Series | Latest | As of | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Mississippi River at Memphis, stage · ft | not published | not published | |
| Mississippi River at St. Louis, stage · ft | not published | not published | |
| Ohio River at Louisville, stage · ft | 12.69 | 2026-10-05 | +3.3% |
| Missouri River at St. Joseph, stage · ft | not published | not published | |
| Colorado River below Hoover Dam, flow (Hoover releases) · ft³/s | 5,170.00 | 2026-02-05 | -25.3% |
| Texas reservoirs, statewide percent full · % | 72.60 | 2026-10-06 | +0.0% |
| Laredo truck crossings, monthly · trucks | 258,700.00 | 2026-08-01 | -0.4% |
| Los Angeles + Long Beach container volume, annual · TEU | 10,513,167.00 | 2023-01-01 | -13.5% |
| Containerships waiting for a berth, all US ports · ships | 6.00 | 2026-09-22 | -14.3% |
| Shanghai to Los Angeles container rate · $ per 40 ft box | 6,830.00 | 2026-08-01 | +7.4% |
| US diesel retail price · $ per gallon | unavailable | not published | |
| WTI crude oil, spot · $ per barrel | 96.16 | 2026-09-29 | -3.2% |
| 30-year fixed mortgage rate · % | 7.28 | 2026-10-01 | +3.6% |
| Housing starts, annual rate · thousands of units | 1,275.00 | 2026-08-01 | -2.6% |
| Building permits, annual rate · thousands of units | 1,403.00 | 2026-08-01 | -2.1% |
| Case-Shiller US home price index · index, Jan 2000 = 100 | 337.31 | 2026-07-01 | +0.1% |
| Unemployment rate · % | 4.20 | 2026-09-01 | +2.4% |
| US goods and services trade balance, monthly · $ millions | -88,576.00 | 2026-07-01 | -24.4% |
| Retail sales excluding food services, monthly · $ millions | 646,347.00 | 2026-08-01 | +1.1% |
The indicator registry has no county-keyed series and no geographic selection: every entry is national, a named gauge, a single state or a port. They are here as the backdrop the county's own numbers move against, and they are never this county's readings.
What changed #
Northumberland County, VA: 6 findings, 2 at a watch level and 4 noted
watchNorthumberland County, VA's covered employment is -0.8% against a year earlier, a watch level here: covered employment below the same quarter a year earlier (BLS QCEW over-the-year percent change, as published; not an official level). The previous published period is not in this table, so this is a standing level rather than a change.
Period 2026 Q1.Show the arithmetic
- test: jobs.yoy.emp = -0.8 < 0
BLS QCEW over-the-year percent change, as published; not an official level
watchNorthumberland County, VA's years of wages of 7.4 ranks 286th of 3,063 US counties, a watch level here: years of wages in the top tenth of US counties (position among the counties that published both a ZHVI value and a QCEW average weekly wage; not an official level). The previous published period is not in this table, so this is a standing level rather than a change.
Period 2026-08.Show the arithmetic
- test: yearsOfWages percentile = 90.69235793598955 >= 90
- typical home value / (average weekly wage × 52); one average covered job, not a household
position among the counties that published both a ZHVI value and a QCEW average weekly wage; not an official level
noteNorthumberland County, VA's average weekly wage was 8.3% higher than the same quarter a year earlier in 2026 Q1, on BLS QCEW's published over-the-year change.
Period 2026 Q1.Show the arithmetic
- +8.3 % = BLS QCEW over-the-year percent change for 2026 Q1, as published
- the newest QCEW file carries no year-earlier level, so no move from one level to another is printed
BLS QCEW over-the-year percent change, as published
noteNorthumberland County, VA's covered employment was 0.8% lower than the same quarter a year earlier in 2026 Q1, on BLS QCEW's published over-the-year change.
Period 2026 Q1.Show the arithmetic
- -0.8 % = BLS QCEW over-the-year percent change for 2026 Q1, as published
- the newest QCEW file carries no year-earlier level, so no move from one level to another is printed
BLS QCEW over-the-year percent change, as published
noteNorthumberland County, VA's covered employment of 2,189 ranks 122nd of 133 Virginia counties, against a median of 9,944.
Period 2026 Q1.Show the arithmetic
- 8 on the 0-to-100 scale across 133 Virginia counties that published jobs.emp
position among the entities that published this metric this period; not an official level
Read all 6 findings in the full brief
Every finding is produced by a fixed rule table and a fixed sentence for each rule. Nothing here is generated prose.