Orange County, VA

Home values #

Typical home $385,202 (Aug 2026), +2.2% over one year, +24.2% over five

• 83rd pct · 491st of 3,063 US counties · median $234,566
• 71st pct · 39th of 133 Virginia counties · median $307,999

Zillow Home Value Index (ZHVI), typical value of homes in the 35th to 65th percentile, smoothed and seasonally adjusted; a model estimate of value, not a sale price. Data through Zillow Research.

Rents #

Typical rent $2,113/mo (Aug 2026), n/a over one year; price-to-rent 15.2

• 87th pct · 172nd of 1,399 US counties · median $1,496
• 80th pct · 16th of 79 Virginia counties · median $1,757

Zillow Observed Rent Index (ZORI), smoothed, all homes and multifamily; price-to-rent = typical home / (typical rent × 12).

What the typical home costs to carry #

Principal and interest of $2,108 a month on $385,202 at 7.28%, against an average weekly wage worth $4,429 a month: 47.6% of one job’s pay.

• payment = P·r / (1 − (1+r)^−n), P = $385,202 × 80% = $308,162, r = 7.28%/12 (Freddie Mac PMMS via FRED, 2026-10-01), n = 360 → $2,108/mo principal and interest
• wage share = payment / (avg weekly wage $1,022 × 52 / 12 = $4,429) = 48% of one average job's pay (BLS QCEW 2026 Q1, all covered jobs)
• years of wages = $385,202 / ($1,022 × 52) = 7.2
• price-to-rent = $385,202 / ($2,113 × 12) = 15.2

The wage is one covered job’s average, not a household’s income, so this is the share of a single paycheque and not a mortgage underwriting ratio.

Estimate. Principal and interest on the typical home with 20% down over 30 years at this week's Freddie Mac average rate; compared with the average weekly wage of all jobs covered by unemployment insurance in the area (BLS QCEW), which is pay per job, not household income.

Jobs & wages #

9,408 jobs at 1,041 employers (2026 Q1); +0.7% jobs and +3.0% average weekly wage over the year

• 53rd pct · 1,502nd of 3,221 US counties · median 8,232
• 47th pct · 70th of 133 Virginia counties · median 9,944

BLS Quarterly Census of Employment and Wages, all ownerships, total covered employment in the quarter's third month; over-the-year changes as published. Suppressed cells stay blank.

Drought #

No drought class at this point (USDM covers the United States only)

Sites found: 5, searched within 0 km of this place’s internal point. That is a disc around a point, not the area itself: sites outside the boundary are included, and sites inside it further than 0 km away are not.

US Drought Monitor current week; the highest class of any polygon containing the point.

Reservoirs #

No reservoir gauges within 150 km (or the camera is above the gauge altitude)

Sites found: 0, searched within 150 km of this place’s internal point. That is a disc around a point, not the area itself: sites outside the boundary are included, and sites inside it further than 150 km away are not.

Σ(capacity × percent full) / Σ capacity over TWDB reservoirs within 150 km. Texas only; elsewhere USGS reservoir elevation/storage is listed without a capacity to normalise by.

Stream gauges #

100 gauges · 0 flooding · 15 with quality panels averaging 98 % · 27 stale

Sites found: 100, searched within 75 km of this place’s internal point. That is a disc around a point, not the area itself: sites outside the boundary are included, and sites inside it further than 75 km away are not.

USGS latest readings screened against EPA freshwater criteria (DO ≥ 5 mg/L, pH 6.5–9, conductance, turbidity, temperature); NWS flood categories where a NWPS gauge is co-located.

Groundwater #

14 wells in 0 named aquifers:

Sites found: 14, searched within 75 km of this place’s internal point. That is a disc around a point, not the area itself: sites outside the boundary are included, and sites inside it further than 75 km away are not.

USGS latest daily water levels. A single latest reading says where the table is, not which way it is moving; select a well for its 365-day trace.

Water stress #

low (0.01)

Σ wᵢ·termᵢ / Σ wᵢ = 0.35×0.00 + 0.2×0.02 / 0.55

Banks & federal dollars #

$592.9 m in deposits at 7 offices of 4 banks (SOD June 2026); HHI 2,721, highly concentrated. $327.6 m federal obligations in FY2026 (direct payments $320.5 m, grants $5.3 m), $34,824 per covered job

Deposit concentration is 2,721 across 4 banks, which the 1995 Department of Justice bank merger screen calls highly concentrated.

HHI = Σ (share %)² over 4 banks with deposits in the county = 35.7² + 28.2² + 18.7² + … (1 more) = 2,721

FDIC Summary of Deposits: deposits at every insured office as of June 30, annual; HHI is the sum of squared county deposit shares (DOJ 1995 bank merger screen: 1000 / 1800). USAspending: obligations by place of performance for the latest complete federal fiscal year (Oct 1 to Sep 30), what agencies committed, not what they paid out; recipients are legal entities. Per-job divides obligations by BLS QCEW covered employment.

Federal obligations #

USAspending place-of-performance obligations for FY2026, by awarding agency.

That is $34,824 per covered job, against 9,408 jobs in the 2026 Q1 QCEW quarter.

per job = FY2026 obligations $327.6 m / 9,408 covered jobs (BLS QCEW 2026 Q1, all ownerships) = $34,824

USAspending obligations are recorded where the work is performed, so a prime award performed here is counted here even when the recipient is headquartered elsewhere. Recipients are legal entities, never people.

National context, not this county #

These are United States, single-gauge, single-state and port series. None of them is keyed to this county.

The indicator registry has no county-keyed series and no geographic selection: every entry is national, a named gauge, a single state or a port. They are here as the backdrop the county's own numbers move against, and they are never this county's readings.

What changed #

Orange County, VA: 5 findings, 5 noted

1. noteOrange County, VA's average weekly wage was 3.0% higher than the same quarter a year earlier in 2026 Q1, on BLS QCEW's published over-the-year change.

   Period 2026 Q1.
   Show the arithmetic

   • +3 % = BLS QCEW over-the-year percent change for 2026 Q1, as published
   • the newest QCEW file carries no year-earlier level, so no move from one level to another is printed

   BLS QCEW over-the-year percent change, as published

2. noteOrange County, VA's typical asking rent rose 1.2% from $2,087 in July 2026 to $2,113 in August 2026, on Zillow ZORI.

   Period 2026-08.
   Show the arithmetic

   • +1.2% = (2112.777777777778 - 2087.18784738065) / 2087.18784738065 × 100
   • 2112.777777777778 = Zillow ZORI, 2026-08
   • 2087.18784738065 = Zillow ZORI, 2026-07

3. noteOrange County, VA's covered employment was 0.7% higher than the same quarter a year earlier in 2026 Q1, on BLS QCEW's published over-the-year change.

   Period 2026 Q1.
   Show the arithmetic

   • +0.7 % = BLS QCEW over-the-year percent change for 2026 Q1, as published
   • the newest QCEW file carries no year-earlier level, so no move from one level to another is printed

   BLS QCEW over-the-year percent change, as published

4. noteThe next Zillow ZHVI typical home value (monthly) covering Orange County, VA is due between 2026-10-14 and 2026-10-21, estimated from the publisher's past release pattern.

   Show the arithmetic

   • window = 2026-10-14 to 2026-10-21, estimated from the publisher's past release pattern

   estimated from the publisher's past release pattern; not an announced date

5. noteThe next Zillow ZORI typical rent (monthly) covering Orange County, VA is due between 2026-10-14 and 2026-10-21, estimated from the publisher's past release pattern.

   Show the arithmetic

   • window = 2026-10-14 to 2026-10-21, estimated from the publisher's past release pattern

   estimated from the publisher's past release pattern; not an announced date

Read the full brief

Every finding is produced by a fixed rule table and a fixed sentence for each rule. Nothing here is generated prose.