Crawford County, AR

Home values #

Typical home $221,759 (Aug 2026), +6.3% over one year, +32.4% over five

• 45th pct · 1,685th of 3,063 US counties · median $234,566
• 82nd pct · 14th of 74 Arkansas counties · median $169,663
• counties in the Fort Smith metro: Rank context is unavailable: the manifest lists 3 counties in the Fort Smith metro; fewer than 5 is too few to rank.

Zillow Home Value Index (ZHVI), typical value of homes in the 35th to 65th percentile, smoothed and seasonally adjusted; a model estimate of value, not a sale price. Data through Zillow Research.

Rents #

Typical rent $1,048/mo (Aug 2026), +4.4% over one year; price-to-rent 17.6

• 11th pct · 1,242nd of 1,399 US counties · median $1,496
• 38th pct · 14th of 22 Arkansas counties · median $1,127
• counties in the Fort Smith metro: Rank context is unavailable: the manifest lists 3 counties in the Fort Smith metro; fewer than 5 is too few to rank.

Zillow Observed Rent Index (ZORI), smoothed, all homes and multifamily; price-to-rent = typical home / (typical rent × 12).

What the typical home costs to carry #

Principal and interest of $1,214 a month on $221,759 at 7.28%, against an average weekly wage worth $4,047 a month: 30.0% of one job’s pay.

• payment = P·r / (1 − (1+r)^−n), P = $221,759 × 80% = $177,407, r = 7.28%/12 (Freddie Mac PMMS via FRED, 2026-10-01), n = 360 → $1,214/mo principal and interest
• wage share = payment / (avg weekly wage $934 × 52 / 12 = $4,047) = 30% of one average job's pay (BLS QCEW 2026 Q1, all covered jobs)
• years of wages = $221,759 / ($934 × 52) = 4.6
• price-to-rent = $221,759 / ($1,048 × 12) = 17.6

The wage is one covered job’s average, not a household’s income, so this is the share of a single paycheque and not a mortgage underwriting ratio.

Estimate. Principal and interest on the typical home with 20% down over 30 years at this week's Freddie Mac average rate; compared with the average weekly wage of all jobs covered by unemployment insurance in the area (BLS QCEW), which is pay per job, not household income.

Jobs & wages #

17,830 jobs at 1,340 employers (2026 Q1); -0.4% jobs and -2.9% average weekly wage over the year

• 68th pct · 1,010th of 3,221 US counties · median 8,232
• 82nd pct · 14th of 75 Arkansas counties · median 5,609
• counties in the Fort Smith metro: Rank context is unavailable: the manifest lists 3 counties in the Fort Smith metro; fewer than 5 is too few to rank.

BLS Quarterly Census of Employment and Wages, all ownerships, total covered employment in the quarter's third month; over-the-year changes as published. Suppressed cells stay blank.

Drought #

D3 extreme drought

Sites found: 5, searched within 0 km of this place’s internal point. That is a disc around a point, not the area itself: sites outside the boundary are included, and sites inside it further than 0 km away are not.

US Drought Monitor current week; the highest class of any polygon containing the point.

Reservoirs #

4 USGS reservoir gauges, no capacity figures to weight

Sites found: 4, searched within 150 km of this place’s internal point. That is a disc around a point, not the area itself: sites outside the boundary are included, and sites inside it further than 150 km away are not.

Σ(capacity × percent full) / Σ capacity over TWDB reservoirs within 150 km. Texas only; elsewhere USGS reservoir elevation/storage is listed without a capacity to normalise by.

Stream gauges #

54 gauges · 0 flooding · 6 with quality panels averaging 98 % · 24 stale

Sites found: 54, searched within 75 km of this place’s internal point. That is a disc around a point, not the area itself: sites outside the boundary are included, and sites inside it further than 75 km away are not.

USGS latest readings screened against EPA freshwater criteria (DO ≥ 5 mg/L, pH 6.5–9, conductance, turbidity, temperature); NWS flood categories where a NWPS gauge is co-located.

Groundwater #

8 wells in 0 named aquifers:

Sites found: 8, searched within 75 km of this place’s internal point. That is a disc around a point, not the area itself: sites outside the boundary are included, and sites inside it further than 75 km away are not.

USGS latest daily water levels. A single latest reading says where the table is, not which way it is moving; select a well for its 365-day trace.

Water stress #

moderate (0.48)

Σ wᵢ·termᵢ / Σ wᵢ = 0.35×0.75 + 0.2×0.02 / 0.55

Banks & federal dollars #

$1.2 bn in deposits at 27 offices of 10 banks (SOD June 2026); HHI 2,454, highly concentrated. $472.0 m federal obligations in FY2026 (direct payments $396.5 m, grants $70.2 m), $26,471 per covered job

Deposit concentration is 2,454 across 10 banks, which the 1995 Department of Justice bank merger screen calls highly concentrated.

HHI = Σ (share %)² over 10 banks with deposits in the county = 43.4² + 15.4² + 13.1² + … (7 more) = 2,454

FDIC Summary of Deposits: deposits at every insured office as of June 30, annual; HHI is the sum of squared county deposit shares (DOJ 1995 bank merger screen: 1000 / 1800). USAspending: obligations by place of performance for the latest complete federal fiscal year (Oct 1 to Sep 30), what agencies committed, not what they paid out; recipients are legal entities. Per-job divides obligations by BLS QCEW covered employment.

Federal obligations #

USAspending place-of-performance obligations for FY2026, by awarding agency.

That is $26,471 per covered job, against 17,830 jobs in the 2026 Q1 QCEW quarter.

per job = FY2026 obligations $472.0 m / 17,830 covered jobs (BLS QCEW 2026 Q1, all ownerships) = $26,471

USAspending obligations are recorded where the work is performed, so a prime award performed here is counted here even when the recipient is headquartered elsewhere. Recipients are legal entities, never people.

National context, not this county #

These are United States, single-gauge, single-state and port series. None of them is keyed to this county.

The indicator registry has no county-keyed series and no geographic selection: every entry is national, a named gauge, a single state or a port. They are here as the backdrop the county's own numbers move against, and they are never this county's readings.

What changed #

Crawford County, AR: 10 findings, 5 at a watch level and 5 noted

1. watchCrawford County, AR's average weekly wage is -2.9% against a year earlier, a watch level here: average weekly wage below the same quarter a year earlier, before inflation (BLS QCEW over-the-year percent change, as published, nominal dollars; convention chosen for this dashboard, not an official level). The previous published period is not in this table, so this is a standing level rather than a change.

   Period 2026 Q1.
   Show the arithmetic

   • test: jobs.yoy.avgWeeklyWage = -2.9 < 0

   BLS QCEW over-the-year percent change, as published, nominal dollars; convention chosen for this dashboard, not an official level

2. watchCrawford County, AR's covered employment is -0.4% against a year earlier, a watch level here: covered employment below the same quarter a year earlier (BLS QCEW over-the-year percent change, as published; not an official level). The previous published period is not in this table, so this is a standing level rather than a change.

   Period 2026 Q1.
   Show the arithmetic

   • test: jobs.yoy.emp = -0.4 < 0

   BLS QCEW over-the-year percent change, as published; not an official level

3. watchCrawford County, AR's typical asking rent is -1.0% against the previous month, a watch level here: typical asking rent at least 1 percent below the previous month (arithmetic on the Zillow ZORI month columns; convention chosen for this dashboard, not an official level). The previous published period is not in this table, so this is a standing level rather than a change.

   Period 2026-08.
   Show the arithmetic

   • test: rent.momPct = -1.0222472489993917 <= -1
   • month-over-month percent change = (newest month − previous month) / |previous month| × 100, from Zillow's own published month columns

   arithmetic on the Zillow ZORI month columns; convention chosen for this dashboard, not an official level

4. watchCrawford County, AR's typical home value of $221,759 scores 45 on the 0-to-100 scale across US counties but 82 across Arkansas counties, a gap of 37 points.

   Period 2026-08.
   Show the arithmetic

   • 37 = |45 across US counties - 82 across Arkansas counties|

   position among the entities that published this metric this period; not an official level

5. watchCrawford County, AR's average weekly wage of $934 scores 26 on the 0-to-100 scale across US counties but 61 across Arkansas counties, a gap of 35 points.

   Period 2026 Q1.
   Show the arithmetic

   • 35 = |26 across US counties - 61 across Arkansas counties|

   position among the entities that published this metric this period; not an official level

Read all 10 findings in the full brief

Every finding is produced by a fixed rule table and a fixed sentence for each rule. Nothing here is generated prose.