Warren County, NJ

Home values #

Typical home $425,989 (Aug 2026), +1.9% over one year, +27.9% over five

• 88th pct · 346th of 3,063 US counties · median $234,566
• 30th pct · 15th of 21 New Jersey counties · median $588,036
• counties in the Allentown-Bethlehem-Easton metro: Rank context is unavailable: the manifest lists 4 counties in the Allentown-Bethlehem-Easton metro; fewer than 5 is too few to rank.

Zillow Home Value Index (ZHVI), typical value of homes in the 35th to 65th percentile, smoothed and seasonally adjusted; a model estimate of value, not a sale price. Data through Zillow Research.

Rents #

Typical rent $2,075/mo (Aug 2026), +2.3% over one year; price-to-rent 17.1

• 86th pct · 190th of 1,399 US counties · median $1,496
• 25th pct · 16th of 21 New Jersey counties · median $2,286
• counties in the Allentown-Bethlehem-Easton metro: Rank context is unavailable: the manifest lists 4 counties in the Allentown-Bethlehem-Easton metro; fewer than 5 is too few to rank.

Zillow Observed Rent Index (ZORI), smoothed, all homes and multifamily; price-to-rent = typical home / (typical rent × 12).

What the typical home costs to carry #

Principal and interest of $2,332 a month on $425,989 at 7.28%, against an average weekly wage worth $5,989 a month: 38.9% of one job’s pay.

• payment = P·r / (1 − (1+r)^−n), P = $425,989 × 80% = $340,791, r = 7.28%/12 (Freddie Mac PMMS via FRED, 2026-10-01), n = 360 → $2,332/mo principal and interest
• wage share = payment / (avg weekly wage $1,382 × 52 / 12 = $5,989) = 39% of one average job's pay (BLS QCEW 2026 Q1, all covered jobs)
• years of wages = $425,989 / ($1,382 × 52) = 5.9
• price-to-rent = $425,989 / ($2,075 × 12) = 17.1

The wage is one covered job’s average, not a household’s income, so this is the share of a single paycheque and not a mortgage underwriting ratio.

Estimate. Principal and interest on the typical home with 20% down over 30 years at this week's Freddie Mac average rate; compared with the average weekly wage of all jobs covered by unemployment insurance in the area (BLS QCEW), which is pay per job, not household income.

Jobs & wages #

33,799 jobs at 2,974 employers (2026 Q1); +0.8% jobs and +3.8% average weekly wage over the year

• 78th pct · 678th of 3,221 US counties · median 8,232
• 5th pct · 20th of 21 New Jersey counties · median 188,702
• counties in the Allentown-Bethlehem-Easton metro: Rank context is unavailable: the manifest lists 4 counties in the Allentown-Bethlehem-Easton metro; fewer than 5 is too few to rank.

BLS Quarterly Census of Employment and Wages, all ownerships, total covered employment in the quarter's third month; over-the-year changes as published. Suppressed cells stay blank.

Drought #

No drought class at this point (USDM covers the United States only)

Sites found: 5, searched within 0 km of this place’s internal point. That is a disc around a point, not the area itself: sites outside the boundary are included, and sites inside it further than 0 km away are not.

US Drought Monitor current week; the highest class of any polygon containing the point.

Reservoirs #

7 USGS reservoir gauges, no capacity figures to weight

Sites found: 7, searched within 150 km of this place’s internal point. That is a disc around a point, not the area itself: sites outside the boundary are included, and sites inside it further than 150 km away are not.

Σ(capacity × percent full) / Σ capacity over TWDB reservoirs within 150 km. Texas only; elsewhere USGS reservoir elevation/storage is listed without a capacity to normalise by.

Stream gauges #

264 gauges · 0 flooding · 80 with quality panels averaging 100 % · 94 stale

Sites found: 264, searched within 75 km of this place’s internal point. That is a disc around a point, not the area itself: sites outside the boundary are included, and sites inside it further than 75 km away are not.

USGS latest readings screened against EPA freshwater criteria (DO ≥ 5 mg/L, pH 6.5–9, conductance, turbidity, temperature); NWS flood categories where a NWPS gauge is co-located.

Groundwater #

170 wells in 0 named aquifers:

Sites found: 170, searched within 75 km of this place’s internal point. That is a disc around a point, not the area itself: sites outside the boundary are included, and sites inside it further than 75 km away are not.

USGS latest daily water levels. A single latest reading says where the table is, not which way it is moving; select a well for its 365-day trace.

Water stress #

low (0.00)

Σ wᵢ·termᵢ / Σ wᵢ = 0.35×0.00 + 0.2×0.00 / 0.55

Banks & federal dollars #

$3.4 bn in deposits at 24 offices of 10 banks (SOD June 2026); HHI 1,644, moderately concentrated. $774.8 m federal obligations in FY2026 (direct payments $716.7 m, grants $53.4 m), $22,925 per covered job

Deposit concentration is 1,644 across 10 banks, which the 1995 Department of Justice bank merger screen calls moderately concentrated.

HHI = Σ (share %)² over 10 banks with deposits in the county = 32.9² + 11.1² + 10.3² + … (7 more) = 1,644

FDIC Summary of Deposits: deposits at every insured office as of June 30, annual; HHI is the sum of squared county deposit shares (DOJ 1995 bank merger screen: 1000 / 1800). USAspending: obligations by place of performance for the latest complete federal fiscal year (Oct 1 to Sep 30), what agencies committed, not what they paid out; recipients are legal entities. Per-job divides obligations by BLS QCEW covered employment.

Federal obligations #

USAspending place-of-performance obligations for FY2026, by awarding agency.

That is $22,925 per covered job, against 33,799 jobs in the 2026 Q1 QCEW quarter.

per job = FY2026 obligations $774.8 m / 33,799 covered jobs (BLS QCEW 2026 Q1, all ownerships) = $22,925

USAspending obligations are recorded where the work is performed, so a prime award performed here is counted here even when the recipient is headquartered elsewhere. Recipients are legal entities, never people.

National context, not this county #

These are United States, single-gauge, single-state and port series. None of them is keyed to this county.

The indicator registry has no county-keyed series and no geographic selection: every entry is national, a named gauge, a single state or a port. They are here as the backdrop the county's own numbers move against, and they are never this county's readings.

What changed #

Warren County, NJ: 11 findings, 5 at a watch level and 6 noted

1. watchWarren County, NJ's covered employment of 33,799 scores 79 on the 0-to-100 scale across US counties but 5 across New Jersey counties, a gap of 74 points.

   Period 2026 Q1.
   Show the arithmetic

   • 74 = |79 across US counties - 5 across New Jersey counties|

   position among the entities that published this metric this period; not an official level

2. watchWarren County, NJ's typical asking rent of $2,075 scores 86 on the 0-to-100 scale across US counties but 25 across New Jersey counties, a gap of 61 points.

   Period 2026-08.
   Show the arithmetic

   • 61 = |86 across US counties - 25 across New Jersey counties|

   position among the entities that published this metric this period; not an official level

3. watchWarren County, NJ's typical home value of $425,989 scores 89 on the 0-to-100 scale across US counties but 30 across New Jersey counties, a gap of 59 points.

   Period 2026-08.
   Show the arithmetic

   • 59 = |89 across US counties - 30 across New Jersey counties|

   position among the entities that published this metric this period; not an official level

4. watchWarren County, NJ's average weekly wage of $1,382 scores 89 on the 0-to-100 scale across US counties but 35 across New Jersey counties, a gap of 54 points.

   Period 2026 Q1.
   Show the arithmetic

   • 54 = |89 across US counties - 35 across New Jersey counties|

   position among the entities that published this metric this period; not an official level

5. watchWarren County, NJ's years of wages of 5.9 scores 78 on the 0-to-100 scale across US counties but 40 across New Jersey counties, a gap of 38 points.

   Period 2026-08.
   Show the arithmetic

   • 38 = |78 across US counties - 40 across New Jersey counties|
   • typical home value / (average weekly wage × 52); one average covered job, not a household

   position among the entities that published this metric this period; not an official level

Read all 11 findings in the full brief

Every finding is produced by a fixed rule table and a fixed sentence for each rule. Nothing here is generated prose.