Carter County, TN

Home values #

Typical home $240,044 (Aug 2026), -0.3% over one year, +33.5% over five

• 52nd pct · 1,470th of 3,063 US counties · median $234,566
• 32nd pct · 64th of 95 Tennessee counties · median $259,021
• counties in the Johnson City metro: Rank context is unavailable: the manifest lists 3 counties in the Johnson City metro; fewer than 5 is too few to rank.

Zillow Home Value Index (ZHVI), typical value of homes in the 35th to 65th percentile, smoothed and seasonally adjusted; a model estimate of value, not a sale price. Data through Zillow Research.

Rents #

Typical rent $1,122/mo (Aug 2026), n/a over one year; price-to-rent 17.8

• 16th pct · 1,172nd of 1,399 US counties · median $1,496
• 17th pct · 38th of 46 Tennessee counties · median $1,490
• counties in the Johnson City metro: Rank context is unavailable: the manifest lists 3 counties in the Johnson City metro; fewer than 5 is too few to rank.

Zillow Observed Rent Index (ZORI), smoothed, all homes and multifamily; price-to-rent = typical home / (typical rent × 12).

What the typical home costs to carry #

Principal and interest of $1,314 a month on $240,044 at 7.28%, against an average weekly wage worth $4,082 a month: 32.2% of one job’s pay.

• payment = P·r / (1 − (1+r)^−n), P = $240,044 × 80% = $192,035, r = 7.28%/12 (Freddie Mac PMMS via FRED, 2026-10-01), n = 360 → $1,314/mo principal and interest
• wage share = payment / (avg weekly wage $942 × 52 / 12 = $4,082) = 32% of one average job's pay (BLS QCEW 2026 Q1, all covered jobs)
• years of wages = $240,044 / ($942 × 52) = 4.9
• price-to-rent = $240,044 / ($1,122 × 12) = 17.8

The wage is one covered job’s average, not a household’s income, so this is the share of a single paycheque and not a mortgage underwriting ratio.

Estimate. Principal and interest on the typical home with 20% down over 30 years at this week's Freddie Mac average rate; compared with the average weekly wage of all jobs covered by unemployment insurance in the area (BLS QCEW), which is pay per job, not household income.

Jobs & wages #

12,486 jobs at 839 employers (2026 Q1); -2.0% jobs and -2.6% average weekly wage over the year

• 60th pct · 1,286th of 3,221 US counties · median 8,232
• 64th pct · 34th of 95 Tennessee counties · median 8,576
• counties in the Johnson City metro: Rank context is unavailable: the manifest lists 3 counties in the Johnson City metro; fewer than 5 is too few to rank.

BLS Quarterly Census of Employment and Wages, all ownerships, total covered employment in the quarter's third month; over-the-year changes as published. Suppressed cells stay blank.

Drought #

D0 abnormally dry

Sites found: 5, searched within 0 km of this place’s internal point. That is a disc around a point, not the area itself: sites outside the boundary are included, and sites inside it further than 0 km away are not.

US Drought Monitor current week; the highest class of any polygon containing the point.

Reservoirs #

5 USGS reservoir gauges, no capacity figures to weight

Sites found: 5, searched within 150 km of this place’s internal point. That is a disc around a point, not the area itself: sites outside the boundary are included, and sites inside it further than 150 km away are not.

Σ(capacity × percent full) / Σ capacity over TWDB reservoirs within 150 km. Texas only; elsewhere USGS reservoir elevation/storage is listed without a capacity to normalise by.

Stream gauges #

81 gauges · 0 flooding · 7 with quality panels averaging 100 % · 7 stale

Sites found: 81, searched within 75 km of this place’s internal point. That is a disc around a point, not the area itself: sites outside the boundary are included, and sites inside it further than 75 km away are not.

USGS latest readings screened against EPA freshwater criteria (DO ≥ 5 mg/L, pH 6.5–9, conductance, turbidity, temperature); NWS flood categories where a NWPS gauge is co-located.

Groundwater #

8 wells in 0 named aquifers:

Sites found: 8, searched within 75 km of this place’s internal point. That is a disc around a point, not the area itself: sites outside the boundary are included, and sites inside it further than 75 km away are not.

USGS latest daily water levels. A single latest reading says where the table is, not which way it is moving; select a well for its 365-day trace.

Water stress #

low (0.00)

Σ wᵢ·termᵢ / Σ wᵢ = 0.35×0.00 + 0.2×0.00 / 0.55

Banks & federal dollars #

$998.5 m in deposits at 13 offices of 6 banks (SOD June 2026); HHI 3,862, highly concentrated. $403.8 m federal obligations in FY2026 (direct payments $396.1 m, grants $12.0 m), $32,338 per covered job

Deposit concentration is 3,862 across 6 banks, which the 1995 Department of Justice bank merger screen calls highly concentrated.

HHI = Σ (share %)² over 6 banks with deposits in the county = 50.0² + 35.3² + 9.7² + … (3 more) = 3,862

FDIC Summary of Deposits: deposits at every insured office as of June 30, annual; HHI is the sum of squared county deposit shares (DOJ 1995 bank merger screen: 1000 / 1800). USAspending: obligations by place of performance for the latest complete federal fiscal year (Oct 1 to Sep 30), what agencies committed, not what they paid out; recipients are legal entities. Per-job divides obligations by BLS QCEW covered employment.

Federal obligations #

USAspending place-of-performance obligations for FY2026, by awarding agency.

That is $32,338 per covered job, against 12,486 jobs in the 2026 Q1 QCEW quarter.

per job = FY2026 obligations $403.8 m / 12,486 covered jobs (BLS QCEW 2026 Q1, all ownerships) = $32,338

USAspending obligations are recorded where the work is performed, so a prime award performed here is counted here even when the recipient is headquartered elsewhere. Recipients are legal entities, never people.

National context, not this county #

These are United States, single-gauge, single-state and port series. None of them is keyed to this county.

The indicator registry has no county-keyed series and no geographic selection: every entry is national, a named gauge, a single state or a port. They are here as the backdrop the county's own numbers move against, and they are never this county's readings.

What changed #

Carter County, TN: 12 findings, 5 at a watch level and 7 noted

1. watchCarter County, TN's average weekly wage is -2.6% against a year earlier, a watch level here: average weekly wage below the same quarter a year earlier, before inflation (BLS QCEW over-the-year percent change, as published, nominal dollars; convention chosen for this dashboard, not an official level). The previous published period is not in this table, so this is a standing level rather than a change.

   Period 2026 Q1.
   Show the arithmetic

   • test: jobs.yoy.avgWeeklyWage = -2.6 < 0

   BLS QCEW over-the-year percent change, as published, nominal dollars; convention chosen for this dashboard, not an official level

2. watchCarter County, TN's covered employment is -2.0% against a year earlier, a watch level here: covered employment below the same quarter a year earlier (BLS QCEW over-the-year percent change, as published; not an official level). The previous published period is not in this table, so this is a standing level rather than a change.

   Period 2026 Q1.
   Show the arithmetic

   • test: jobs.yoy.emp = -2 < 0

   BLS QCEW over-the-year percent change, as published; not an official level

3. watchCarter County, TN's typical home value is -0.3% against a year earlier, a watch level here: typical home value below a year ago (arithmetic on Zillow ZHVI, county and metro files; not an official level). The previous published period is not in this table, so this is a standing level rather than a change.

   Period 2026-08.
   Show the arithmetic

   • test: home.yoyPct = -0.2814027255819306 < 0

   arithmetic on Zillow ZHVI, county and metro files; not an official level

4. watchCarter County, TN's momentum index is -0.37, a watch level here: momentum index in the cooling band (the cooling band of the momentum index computed here, score at or below -0.25; convention chosen for this dashboard, not an official level). The previous published period is not in this table, so this is a standing level rather than a change.

   Period 2026-08.
   Show the arithmetic

   • test: momentum = -0.37267695894210734 <= -0.25
   • momentum = Σ wᵢ · clip(changeᵢ / scaleᵢ, −1, 1) / Σ wᵢ over the terms present; weights and scales: home value 1-yr change 0.3 (±10%), rent 1-yr change 0.15 (±10%), jobs over-the-year change 0.3 (±3%), avg weekly wage over-the-year change 0.25 (±6%)

   the cooling band of the momentum index computed here, score at or below -0.25; convention chosen for this dashboard, not an official level

5. watchCarter County, TN's typical asking rent rose 3.3% from $1,086 in July 2026 to $1,122 in August 2026, on Zillow ZORI.

   Period 2026-08.
   Show the arithmetic

   • +3.3% = (1121.5277777777778 - 1085.5108290107237) / 1085.5108290107237 × 100
   • 1121.5277777777778 = Zillow ZORI, 2026-08
   • 1085.5108290107237 = Zillow ZORI, 2026-07

Read all 12 findings in the full brief

Every finding is produced by a fixed rule table and a fixed sentence for each rule. Nothing here is generated prose.