Falls County, TX
Housing, jobs, water, deposits and federal obligations for this county, each figure with the release it came from. Internal point 31.25, -96.93.
Assembled 2026-10-06. Read the brief.
- 13th pct · 2,642nd of 3,063 US counties · median $234,566
- 19th pct · 195th of 243 Texas counties · median $215,660
- counties in the Waco metro: Rank context is unavailable: the manifest lists 3 counties in the Waco metro; fewer than 5 is too few to rank.
- 6th pct · 2,871st of 3,063 US counties · median +2.9%
- 15th pct · 205th of 243 Texas counties · median +0.0%
- counties in the Waco metro: Rank context is unavailable: the manifest lists 3 counties in the Waco metro; fewer than 5 is too few to rank.
- US counties: not published this period
- Texas counties: not published this period
- counties in the Waco metro: Rank context is unavailable: the manifest lists 3 counties in the Waco metro; fewer than 5 is too few to rank.
- 25th pct · 2,399th of 3,221 US counties · median 8,232
- 35th pct · 165th of 254 Texas counties · median 6,022
- counties in the Waco metro: Rank context is unavailable: the manifest lists 3 counties in the Waco metro; fewer than 5 is too few to rank.
- 54th pct · 1,464th of 3,221 US counties · median $1,039
- 39th pct · 154th of 254 Texas counties · median $1,115
- counties in the Waco metro: Rank context is unavailable: the manifest lists 3 counties in the Waco metro; fewer than 5 is too few to rank.
- 12th pct · 2,690th of 3,063 US counties · median 4.3
- 26th pct · 179th of 243 Texas counties · median 3.6
- counties in the Waco metro: Rank context is unavailable: the manifest lists 3 counties in the Waco metro; fewer than 5 is too few to rank.
Typical home value divided by the average annual wage of one covered job.
A percentile here is a min-max scaling of average rank: the smallest published value in the cohort is 0 and the largest is 100, and tied values share the average of the ranks they span. It is not the share of entities below the value, so 0 means smallest, not none below. Entities that did not publish the metric are outside the cohort entirely and are counted in neither the rank nor its denominator.
Home values #
Typical home $143,882 (Aug 2026), -3.6% over one year, -15.9% over five
- 13th pct · 2,642nd of 3,063 US counties · median $234,566
- 19th pct · 195th of 243 Texas counties · median $215,660
- counties in the Waco metro: Rank context is unavailable: the manifest lists 3 counties in the Waco metro; fewer than 5 is too few to rank.
| Item | Value | Distance |
|---|---|---|
| Falls County, TX | $143,882 · -3.6% 1-yr |
Zillow Home Value Index (ZHVI), typical value of homes in the 35th to 65th percentile, smoothed and seasonally adjusted; a model estimate of value, not a sale price. Data through Zillow Research.
Rents #
Zillow publishes no rent index for this area (ZORI covers about 1,400 counties)
- US counties: not published this period
- Texas counties: not published this period
- counties in the Waco metro: Rank context is unavailable: the manifest lists 3 counties in the Waco metro; fewer than 5 is too few to rank.
Zillow Observed Rent Index (ZORI), smoothed, all homes and multifamily; price-to-rent = typical home / (typical rent × 12).
What the typical home costs to carry #
Principal and interest of $788 a month on $143,882 at 7.28%, against an average weekly wage worth $4,589 a month: 17.2% of one job’s pay.
- payment = P·r / (1 − (1+r)^−n), P = $143,882 × 80% = $115,105, r = 7.28%/12 (Freddie Mac PMMS via FRED, 2026-10-01), n = 360 → $788/mo principal and interest
- wage share = payment / (avg weekly wage $1,059 × 52 / 12 = $4,589) = 17% of one average job's pay (BLS QCEW 2026 Q1, all covered jobs)
- years of wages = $143,882 / ($1,059 × 52) = 2.6
The wage is one covered job’s average, not a household’s income, so this is the share of a single paycheque and not a mortgage underwriting ratio.
Estimate. Principal and interest on the typical home with 20% down over 30 years at this week's Freddie Mac average rate; compared with the average weekly wage of all jobs covered by unemployment insurance in the area (BLS QCEW), which is pay per job, not household income.
Jobs & wages #
3,127 jobs at 303 employers (2026 Q1); +3.3% jobs and +1.8% average weekly wage over the year
- 25th pct · 2,399th of 3,221 US counties · median 8,232
- 35th pct · 165th of 254 Texas counties · median 6,022
- counties in the Waco metro: Rank context is unavailable: the manifest lists 3 counties in the Waco metro; fewer than 5 is too few to rank.
| Item | Value | Distance |
|---|---|---|
| Falls County, TX | 3,127 jobs · $1,059/wk · +3.3% YoY |
| NAICS sector | Jobs | Avg weekly wage | Location quotient | Jobs over the year |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Retail trade | 510 | $762 | 1.67 | +0.6% |
| Wholesale trade | 203 | $1,081 | 1.69 | +2.0% |
| Manufacturing | 129 | $1,093 | 0.51 | +10.3% |
| Construction | 110 | $937 | 0.67 | +15.8% |
| Transportation and warehousing | 56 | $1,281 | 0.42 | +24.4% |
| Professional and technical services | 50 | $2,256 | 0.23 | -32.4% |
| Utilities | 26 | $1,803 | 2.11 | +8.3% |
| Agriculture, forestry, fishing | withheld | |||
| Mining, oil and gas | withheld | |||
| Information | withheld | |||
| Finance and insurance | withheld | |||
| Real estate and rental | withheld |
BLS Quarterly Census of Employment and Wages, all ownerships, total covered employment in the quarter's third month; over-the-year changes as published. Suppressed cells stay blank.
Drought #
D2 severe drought
Sites found: 5, searched within 0 km of this place’s internal point. That is a disc around a point, not the area itself: sites outside the boundary are included, and sites inside it further than 0 km away are not.
US Drought Monitor current week; the highest class of any polygon containing the point.
Reservoirs #
91 % of conservation capacity, weighted over 24 TWDB reservoirs
Sites found: 30, searched within 150 km of this place’s internal point. That is a disc around a point, not the area itself: sites outside the boundary are included, and sites inside it further than 150 km away are not.
| Site | Reading | Distance |
|---|---|---|
| Waco Lake | 89 % full · 189k ac-ft | 44 km |
| Belton Lake | 98 % full · 433k ac-ft | 54 km |
| Lake Limestone | 85 % full · 204k ac-ft | 59 km |
| Stillhouse Hollow Lake | 98 % full · 230k ac-ft | 62 km |
| Granger Lake | 100 % full · 52k ac-ft | 73 km |
| Aquilla Lake | 84 % full · 43k ac-ft | 76 km |
| Whitney Lake | 92 % full · 565k ac-ft | 80 km |
| Navarro Mills Lake | 83 % full · 50k ac-ft | 82 km |
Σ(capacity × percent full) / Σ capacity over TWDB reservoirs within 150 km. Texas only; elsewhere USGS reservoir elevation/storage is listed without a capacity to normalise by.
Stream gauges #
38 gauges · 0 flooding · 0 with quality panels
Sites found: 38, searched within 75 km of this place’s internal point. That is a disc around a point, not the area itself: sites outside the boundary are included, and sites inside it further than 75 km away are not.
| Site | Reading | Distance |
|---|---|---|
| Brazos Rv nr Highbank, TX | flow 634.0 ft³/s · no flooding | 17 km |
| Little Brazos Rv at SH 6 nr Reagan, TX | stage 314.5 ft | 19 km |
| Cow Bayou at FM 2643 nr Mooreville, TX | stage 396.6 ft | 21 km |
| Pond Ck at SH 53 nr Rosebud, TX | stage 363.0 ft | 21 km |
| N Elm Ck at Rosebud Rd nr Meeks, TX | flow 0.00 ft³/s | 31 km |
| Tehuacana Ck at Hwy 6 nr Waco, TX | flow 609.0 ft³/s | 33 km |
| Walnut Ck at FM 46 nr Bremond, TX | stage 340.2 ft | 33 km |
| Brazos Rv at Waco, TX | flow 16.0 ft³/s · no flooding | 34 km |
| Big Elm Ck at SH 77 nr Cameron, TX | flow 901.0 ft³/s | 39 km |
| North Texas Lakes at Waco Lake | no readings | 44 km |
USGS latest readings screened against EPA freshwater criteria (DO ≥ 5 mg/L, pH 6.5–9, conductance, turbidity, temperature); NWS flood categories where a NWPS gauge is co-located.
Groundwater #
No USGS monitoring wells within 75 km (or above 1,500 km)
Sites found: 0, searched within 75 km of this place’s internal point. That is a disc around a point, not the area itself: sites outside the boundary are included, and sites inside it further than 75 km away are not.
USGS latest daily water levels. A single latest reading says where the table is, not which way it is moving; select a well for its 365-day trace.
Water stress #
moderate (0.31)
Σ wᵢ·termᵢ / Σ wᵢ = 0.35×0.50 + 0.3×0.09 / 0.65
Banks & federal dollars #
$283.0 m in deposits at 8 offices of 7 banks (SOD June 2026); HHI 1,786, moderately concentrated. $112.8 m federal obligations in FY2026 (direct payments $103.1 m, contracts $8.8 m), $36,070 per covered job
| Item | Value | Distance |
|---|---|---|
| Classic Bank, National Association | $81.3 m · 28.7% share · 1 office | |
| The Huntington National Bank | $53.9 m · 19.1% share · 1 office | |
| Incommons Bank, N.A. | $40.7 m · 14.4% share · 1 office | |
| Falls, TX | $112.8 m FY2026 · $36,070/job | |
| MULTIPLE RECIPIENTS | $91.2 m · top recipient FY2026 |
| Institution | Deposits | Share | Offices |
|---|---|---|---|
| Classic Bank, National Association | $81,285,000 | 28.7% | 1 |
| The Huntington National Bank | $53,913,000 | 19.1% | 1 |
| Incommons Bank, N.A. | $40,740,000 | 14.4% | 1 |
| The First National Bank of Hughes Springs | $39,812,000 | 14.1% | 2 |
| The First National Bank of Bastrop | $27,482,000 | 9.7% | 1 |
| Citizens State Bank | $20,585,000 | 7.3% | 1 |
| PNC Bank, National Association | $19,188,000 | 6.8% | 1 |
Deposit concentration is 1,786 across 7 banks, which the 1995 Department of Justice bank merger screen calls moderately concentrated.
HHI = Σ (share %)² over 7 banks with deposits in the county = 28.7² + 19.1² + 14.4² + … (4 more) = 1,786
FDIC Summary of Deposits: deposits at every insured office as of June 30, annual; HHI is the sum of squared county deposit shares (DOJ 1995 bank merger screen: 1000 / 1800). USAspending: obligations by place of performance for the latest complete federal fiscal year (Oct 1 to Sep 30), what agencies committed, not what they paid out; recipients are legal entities. Per-job divides obligations by BLS QCEW covered employment.
Federal obligations #
USAspending place-of-performance obligations for FY2026, by awarding agency.
| Awarding agency | Obligations |
|---|---|
| Social Security Administration | $76,502,814 |
| Department of Veterans Affairs | $22,364,903 |
| Department of Agriculture | $11,148,626 |
| Railroad Retirement Board | $1,196,800 |
| Department of Housing and Urban Development | $1,146,927 |
| Federal Communications Commission | $1,007,657 |
| Department of Education | $61,039 |
| Small Business Administration | $0 |
| Department of the Interior | -$17,212 |
| Department of Transportation | -$622,133 |
That is $36,070 per covered job, against 3,127 jobs in the 2026 Q1 QCEW quarter.
per job = FY2026 obligations $112.8 m / 3,127 covered jobs (BLS QCEW 2026 Q1, all ownerships) = $36,070
USAspending obligations are recorded where the work is performed, so a prime award performed here is counted here even when the recipient is headquartered elsewhere. Recipients are legal entities, never people.
National context, not this county #
These are United States, single-gauge, single-state and port series. None of them is keyed to this county.
| Series | Latest | As of | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Mississippi River at Memphis, stage · ft | not published | not published | |
| Mississippi River at St. Louis, stage · ft | not published | not published | |
| Ohio River at Louisville, stage · ft | 12.69 | 2026-10-05 | +3.3% |
| Missouri River at St. Joseph, stage · ft | not published | not published | |
| Colorado River below Hoover Dam, flow (Hoover releases) · ft³/s | 5,170.00 | 2026-02-05 | -25.3% |
| Texas reservoirs, statewide percent full · % | 72.60 | 2026-10-06 | +0.0% |
| Laredo truck crossings, monthly · trucks | 258,700.00 | 2026-08-01 | -0.4% |
| Los Angeles + Long Beach container volume, annual · TEU | 10,513,167.00 | 2023-01-01 | -13.5% |
| Containerships waiting for a berth, all US ports · ships | 6.00 | 2026-09-22 | -14.3% |
| Shanghai to Los Angeles container rate · $ per 40 ft box | 6,830.00 | 2026-08-01 | +7.4% |
| US diesel retail price · $ per gallon | unavailable | not published | |
| WTI crude oil, spot · $ per barrel | 96.16 | 2026-09-29 | -3.2% |
| 30-year fixed mortgage rate · % | 7.28 | 2026-10-01 | +3.6% |
| Housing starts, annual rate · thousands of units | 1,275.00 | 2026-08-01 | -2.6% |
| Building permits, annual rate · thousands of units | 1,403.00 | 2026-08-01 | -2.1% |
| Case-Shiller US home price index · index, Jan 2000 = 100 | 337.31 | 2026-07-01 | +0.1% |
| Unemployment rate · % | 4.20 | 2026-09-01 | +2.4% |
| US goods and services trade balance, monthly · $ millions | -105,572.00 | 2026-08-01 | -13.7% |
| Retail sales excluding food services, monthly · $ millions | 646,347.00 | 2026-08-01 | +1.1% |
The indicator registry has no county-keyed series and no geographic selection: every entry is national, a named gauge, a single state or a port. They are here as the backdrop the county's own numbers move against, and they are never this county's readings.
What changed #
Falls County, TX: 6 findings, 1 at a watch level and 5 noted
watchFalls County, TX's typical home value is -3.6% against a year earlier, a watch level here: typical home value below a year ago (arithmetic on Zillow ZHVI, county and metro files; not an official level). The previous published period is not in this table, so this is a standing level rather than a change.
Period 2026-08.Show the arithmetic
- test: home.yoyPct = -3.551834965550306 < 0
arithmetic on Zillow ZHVI, county and metro files; not an official level
noteFalls County, TX's covered employment was 3.3% higher than the same quarter a year earlier in 2026 Q1, on BLS QCEW's published over-the-year change.
Period 2026 Q1.Show the arithmetic
- +3.3 % = BLS QCEW over-the-year percent change for 2026 Q1, as published
- the newest QCEW file carries no year-earlier level, so no move from one level to another is printed
BLS QCEW over-the-year percent change, as published
noteFalls County, TX's average weekly wage was 1.8% higher than the same quarter a year earlier in 2026 Q1, on BLS QCEW's published over-the-year change.
Period 2026 Q1.Show the arithmetic
- +1.8 % = BLS QCEW over-the-year percent change for 2026 Q1, as published
- the newest QCEW file carries no year-earlier level, so no move from one level to another is printed
BLS QCEW over-the-year percent change, as published
noteFalls County, TX's typical home value fell 0.9% from $145,255 in July 2026 to $143,882 in August 2026, on Zillow ZHVI.
Period 2026-08.Show the arithmetic
- -0.9% = (143881.50243480218 - 145254.51413167082) / 145254.51413167082 × 100
- 143881.50243480218 = Zillow ZHVI, 2026-08
- 145254.51413167082 = Zillow ZHVI, 2026-07
noteFalls County, TX's typical home value of -3.6% ranks 2,871st of 3,063 US counties, against a median of +2.9%.
Period 2026-08.Show the arithmetic
- 6 on the 0-to-100 scale across 3063 US counties that published home.yoyPct
position among the entities that published this metric this period; not an official level
Read all 6 findings in the full brief
Every finding is produced by a fixed rule table and a fixed sentence for each rule. Nothing here is generated prose.