Hill County, TX
Housing, jobs, water, deposits and federal obligations for this county, each figure with the release it came from. Internal point 31.98, -97.13.
Assembled 2026-10-06. Read the brief.
- 51st pct · 1,491st of 3,063 US counties · median $234,566
- 60th pct · 96th of 243 Texas counties · median $215,660
- 23rd pct · 2,331st of 3,063 US counties · median +2.9%
- 54th pct · 110th of 243 Texas counties · median +0.0%
- 31st pct · 957th of 1,399 US counties · median $1,496
- 25th pct · 79th of 106 Texas counties · median $1,483
- 59th pct · 1,319th of 3,221 US counties · median 8,232
- 66th pct · 85th of 254 Texas counties · median 6,022
- 68th pct · 1,001st of 3,221 US counties · median $1,039
- 55th pct · 114th of 254 Texas counties · median $1,115
- 44th pct · 1,700th of 3,063 US counties · median 4.3
- 60th pct · 97th of 243 Texas counties · median 3.6
Typical home value divided by the average annual wage of one covered job.
A percentile here is a min-max scaling of average rank: the smallest published value in the cohort is 0 and the largest is 100, and tied values share the average of the ranks they span. It is not the share of entities below the value, so 0 means smallest, not none below. Entities that did not publish the metric are outside the cohort entirely and are counted in neither the rank nor its denominator.
Home values #
Typical home $238,303 (Aug 2026), +0.4% over one year, +17.0% over five
- 51st pct · 1,491st of 3,063 US counties · median $234,566
- 60th pct · 96th of 243 Texas counties · median $215,660
| Item | Value | Distance |
|---|---|---|
| Hill County, TX | $238,303 · +0.4% 1-yr |
Zillow Home Value Index (ZHVI), typical value of homes in the 35th to 65th percentile, smoothed and seasonally adjusted; a model estimate of value, not a sale price. Data through Zillow Research.
Rents #
Typical rent $1,309/mo (Aug 2026), n/a over one year; price-to-rent 15.2
- 31st pct · 957th of 1,399 US counties · median $1,496
- 25th pct · 79th of 106 Texas counties · median $1,483
| Item | Value | Distance |
|---|---|---|
| Hill County, TX | $1,309/mo · n/a 1-yr |
Zillow Observed Rent Index (ZORI), smoothed, all homes and multifamily; price-to-rent = typical home / (typical rent × 12).
What the typical home costs to carry #
Principal and interest of $1,304 a month on $238,303 at 7.28%, against an average weekly wage worth $4,940 a month: 26.4% of one job’s pay.
- payment = P·r / (1 − (1+r)^−n), P = $238,303 × 80% = $190,643, r = 7.28%/12 (Freddie Mac PMMS via FRED, 2026-10-01), n = 360 → $1,304/mo principal and interest
- wage share = payment / (avg weekly wage $1,140 × 52 / 12 = $4,940) = 26% of one average job's pay (BLS QCEW 2026 Q1, all covered jobs)
- years of wages = $238,303 / ($1,140 × 52) = 4.0
- price-to-rent = $238,303 / ($1,309 × 12) = 15.2
The wage is one covered job’s average, not a household’s income, so this is the share of a single paycheque and not a mortgage underwriting ratio.
Estimate. Principal and interest on the typical home with 20% down over 30 years at this week's Freddie Mac average rate; compared with the average weekly wage of all jobs covered by unemployment insurance in the area (BLS QCEW), which is pay per job, not household income.
Jobs & wages #
12,012 jobs at 817 employers (2026 Q1); +2.1% jobs and +6.0% average weekly wage over the year
- 59th pct · 1,319th of 3,221 US counties · median 8,232
- 66th pct · 85th of 254 Texas counties · median 6,022
| Item | Value | Distance |
|---|---|---|
| Hill County, TX | 12,012 jobs · $1,140/wk · +2.1% YoY |
| NAICS sector | Jobs | Avg weekly wage | Location quotient | Jobs over the year |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Manufacturing | 1,813 | $1,327 | 1.88 | +1.5% |
| Retail trade | 1,663 | $686 | 1.42 | +1.2% |
| Construction | 1,606 | $1,538 | 2.55 | +12.9% |
| Accommodation and food services | 1,065 | $388 | 0.99 | +6.2% |
| Administrative and waste services | 544 | $1,244 | 0.80 | -2.9% |
| Wholesale trade | 505 | $1,419 | 1.10 | +3.5% |
| Transportation and warehousing | 250 | $1,359 | 0.49 | +0.8% |
| Other services | 229 | $896 | 0.64 | -4.6% |
| Finance and insurance | 192 | $1,778 | 0.39 | +0.0% |
| Utilities | 175 | $2,060 | 3.69 | -3.3% |
| Real estate and rental | 67 | $885 | 0.36 | -9.5% |
| Arts, entertainment and recreation | 47 | $392 | 0.24 | +0.0% |
BLS Quarterly Census of Employment and Wages, all ownerships, total covered employment in the quarter's third month; over-the-year changes as published. Suppressed cells stay blank.
Drought #
D2 severe drought
Sites found: 5, searched within 0 km of this place’s internal point. That is a disc around a point, not the area itself: sites outside the boundary are included, and sites inside it further than 0 km away are not.
US Drought Monitor current week; the highest class of any polygon containing the point.
Reservoirs #
88 % of conservation capacity, weighted over 33 TWDB reservoirs
Sites found: 39, searched within 150 km of this place’s internal point. That is a disc around a point, not the area itself: sites outside the boundary are included, and sites inside it further than 150 km away are not.
| Site | Reading | Distance |
|---|---|---|
| Aquilla Lake | 84 % full · 43k ac-ft | 11 km |
| Whitney Lake | 92 % full · 565k ac-ft | 26 km |
| Navarro Mills Lake | 83 % full · 50k ac-ft | 42 km |
| Lake Pat Cleburne | 89 % full · 26k ac-ft | 43 km |
| Waco Lake | 89 % full · 189k ac-ft | 45 km |
| Lake Waxahachie | 76 % full · 11k ac-ft | 50 km |
| Bardwell Lake | 89 % full · 44k ac-ft | 54 km |
| Halbert Lake | 77 % full · 6k ac-ft | 68 km |
Σ(capacity × percent full) / Σ capacity over TWDB reservoirs within 150 km. Texas only; elsewhere USGS reservoir elevation/storage is listed without a capacity to normalise by.
Stream gauges #
43 gauges · 0 flooding · 0 with quality panels · 3 stale
Sites found: 43, searched within 75 km of this place’s internal point. That is a disc around a point, not the area itself: sites outside the boundary are included, and sites inside it further than 75 km away are not.
| Site | Reading | Distance |
|---|---|---|
| Hackberry Ck at Hillsboro, TX | flow 0.00 ft³/s · STALE | 3 km |
| North Texas Lakes at Aquilla Lake | no readings | 11 km |
| Aquilla Ck abv Aquilla, TX | flow 1.42 ft³/s | 12 km |
| Richland Ck at Hwy 22 nr Mertens, TX | flow 309.0 ft³/s | 23 km |
| White Rk Ck at FM 308 nr Irene, TX | flow 466.0 ft³/s | 24 km |
| Brazos Rv nr Aquilla, TX | flow 246.0 ft³/s · no flooding | 25 km |
| Ash Ck at Hwy 171 nr Malone, TX | flow 438.0 ft³/s | 25 km |
| North Texas Lakes at Whitney Lake | no readings | 26 km |
| Nolan Rv at Blum, TX | flow 22.6 ft³/s · no flooding | 32 km |
| Chambers Ck at FM 55 nr Avalon, TX | flow 37.8 ft³/s | 40 km |
USGS latest readings screened against EPA freshwater criteria (DO ≥ 5 mg/L, pH 6.5–9, conductance, turbidity, temperature); NWS flood categories where a NWPS gauge is co-located.
Groundwater #
2 wells in 1 named aquifer: Edwards-Trinity aquifer system
Sites found: 2, searched within 75 km of this place’s internal point. That is a disc around a point, not the area itself: sites outside the boundary are included, and sites inside it further than 75 km away are not.
| Site | Reading | Distance |
|---|---|---|
| Edwards-Trinity aquifer system | depth 1,101 ft · 2005-08-23 | 69 km |
| Edwards-Trinity aquifer system | depth 307.4 ft · 2005-09-30 | 72 km |
USGS latest daily water levels. A single latest reading says where the table is, not which way it is moving; select a well for its 365-day trace.
Water stress #
moderate (0.33)
Σ wᵢ·termᵢ / Σ wᵢ = 0.35×0.50 + 0.3×0.12 / 0.65
Banks & federal dollars #
$714.1 m in deposits at 10 offices of 7 banks (SOD June 2026); HHI 2,102, highly concentrated. $282.5 m federal obligations in FY2026 (direct payments $270.1 m, grants $12.0 m), $23,515 per covered job
| Item | Value | Distance |
|---|---|---|
| The Citizens National Bank of Hillsboro | $206.9 m · 29.0% share · 2 offices | |
| The Huntington National Bank | $183.5 m · 25.7% share · 3 offices | |
| First National Bank of Central Texas | $124.7 m · 17.5% share · 1 office | |
| Hill, TX | $282.5 m FY2026 · $23,515/job | |
| MULTIPLE RECIPIENTS | $251.9 m · top recipient FY2026 |
| Institution | Deposits | Share | Offices |
|---|---|---|---|
| The Citizens National Bank of Hillsboro | $206,906,000 | 29.0% | 2 |
| The Huntington National Bank | $183,543,000 | 25.7% | 3 |
| First National Bank of Central Texas | $124,686,000 | 17.5% | 1 |
| Wells Fargo Bank, National Association | $103,721,000 | 14.5% | 1 |
| Cornerstone Capital Bank, SSB | $60,568,000 | 8.5% | 1 |
| First Security State Bank | $24,907,000 | 3.5% | 1 |
| First National Bank Texas | $9,729,000 | 1.4% | 1 |
Deposit concentration is 2,102 across 7 banks, which the 1995 Department of Justice bank merger screen calls highly concentrated.
HHI = Σ (share %)² over 7 banks with deposits in the county = 29.0² + 25.7² + 17.5² + … (4 more) = 2,102
FDIC Summary of Deposits: deposits at every insured office as of June 30, annual; HHI is the sum of squared county deposit shares (DOJ 1995 bank merger screen: 1000 / 1800). USAspending: obligations by place of performance for the latest complete federal fiscal year (Oct 1 to Sep 30), what agencies committed, not what they paid out; recipients are legal entities. Per-job divides obligations by BLS QCEW covered employment.
Federal obligations #
USAspending place-of-performance obligations for FY2026, by awarding agency.
| Awarding agency | Obligations |
|---|---|
| Social Security Administration | $212,612,833 |
| Department of Veterans Affairs | $36,230,718 |
| Department of Transportation | $11,359,188 |
| Department of Agriculture | $11,065,574 |
| Department of Education | $6,151,083 |
| Railroad Retirement Board | $3,197,990 |
| Federal Communications Commission | $1,428,569 |
| Department of Housing and Urban Development | $276,423 |
| Department of Defense | $143,043 |
| Small Business Administration | $0 |
That is $23,515 per covered job, against 12,012 jobs in the 2026 Q1 QCEW quarter.
per job = FY2026 obligations $282.5 m / 12,012 covered jobs (BLS QCEW 2026 Q1, all ownerships) = $23,515
USAspending obligations are recorded where the work is performed, so a prime award performed here is counted here even when the recipient is headquartered elsewhere. Recipients are legal entities, never people.
National context, not this county #
These are United States, single-gauge, single-state and port series. None of them is keyed to this county.
| Series | Latest | As of | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Mississippi River at Memphis, stage · ft | not published | not published | |
| Mississippi River at St. Louis, stage · ft | not published | not published | |
| Ohio River at Louisville, stage · ft | 12.69 | 2026-10-05 | +3.3% |
| Missouri River at St. Joseph, stage · ft | not published | not published | |
| Colorado River below Hoover Dam, flow (Hoover releases) · ft³/s | 5,170.00 | 2026-02-05 | -25.3% |
| Texas reservoirs, statewide percent full · % | 72.60 | 2026-10-06 | +0.0% |
| Laredo truck crossings, monthly · trucks | 258,700.00 | 2026-08-01 | -0.4% |
| Los Angeles + Long Beach container volume, annual · TEU | 10,513,167.00 | 2023-01-01 | -13.5% |
| Containerships waiting for a berth, all US ports · ships | 3.00 | 2026-10-06 | -50.0% |
| Shanghai to Los Angeles container rate · $ per 40 ft box | 7,848.00 | 2026-09-01 | +14.9% |
| US diesel retail price · $ per gallon | unavailable | not published | |
| WTI crude oil, spot · $ per barrel | 96.16 | 2026-09-29 | -3.2% |
| 30-year fixed mortgage rate · % | 7.28 | 2026-10-01 | +3.6% |
| Housing starts, annual rate · thousands of units | 1,275.00 | 2026-08-01 | -2.6% |
| Building permits, annual rate · thousands of units | 1,403.00 | 2026-08-01 | -2.1% |
| Case-Shiller US home price index · index, Jan 2000 = 100 | 337.31 | 2026-07-01 | +0.1% |
| Unemployment rate · % | 4.20 | 2026-09-01 | +2.4% |
| US goods and services trade balance, monthly · $ millions | -105,572.00 | 2026-08-01 | -13.7% |
| Retail sales excluding food services, monthly · $ millions | 646,347.00 | 2026-08-01 | +1.1% |
The indicator registry has no county-keyed series and no geographic selection: every entry is national, a named gauge, a single state or a port. They are here as the backdrop the county's own numbers move against, and they are never this county's readings.
What changed #
Hill County, TX: 6 findings, 1 at a watch level and 5 noted
watchHill County, TX's typical home value of +0.4% scores 24 on the 0-to-100 scale across US counties but 55 across Texas counties, a gap of 31 points.
Period 2026-08.Show the arithmetic
- 31 = |24 across US counties - 55 across Texas counties|
position among the entities that published this metric this period; not an official level
noteHill County, TX's average weekly wage was 6.0% higher than the same quarter a year earlier in 2026 Q1, on BLS QCEW's published over-the-year change.
Period 2026 Q1.Show the arithmetic
- +6 % = BLS QCEW over-the-year percent change for 2026 Q1, as published
- the newest QCEW file carries no year-earlier level, so no move from one level to another is printed
BLS QCEW over-the-year percent change, as published
noteHill County, TX's covered employment was 2.1% higher than the same quarter a year earlier in 2026 Q1, on BLS QCEW's published over-the-year change.
Period 2026 Q1.Show the arithmetic
- +2.1 % = BLS QCEW over-the-year percent change for 2026 Q1, as published
- the newest QCEW file carries no year-earlier level, so no move from one level to another is printed
BLS QCEW over-the-year percent change, as published
noteHill County, TX's typical asking rent fell 0.6% from $1,318 in July 2026 to $1,309 in August 2026, on Zillow ZORI.
Period 2026-08.Show the arithmetic
- -0.6% = (1309.1000000000001 - 1317.6114390694304) / 1317.6114390694304 × 100
- 1309.1000000000001 = Zillow ZORI, 2026-08
- 1317.6114390694304 = Zillow ZORI, 2026-07
noteThe next Zillow ZHVI typical home value (monthly) covering Hill County, TX is due between 2026-10-14 and 2026-10-21, estimated from the publisher's past release pattern.
Show the arithmetic
- window = 2026-10-14 to 2026-10-21, estimated from the publisher's past release pattern
estimated from the publisher's past release pattern; not an announced date
Read all 6 findings in the full brief
Every finding is produced by a fixed rule table and a fixed sentence for each rule. Nothing here is generated prose.