Ellis County, TX
Housing, jobs, water, deposits and federal obligations for this county, each figure with the release it came from. Internal point 32.35, -96.80.
Assembled 2026-10-06. Read the brief.
- 82nd pct · 541st of 3,063 US counties · median $234,566
- 91st pct · 22nd of 243 Texas counties · median $215,660
- 50th pct · 6th of 11 counties in the Dallas-Fort Worth-Arlington metro · median $371,935
- 14th pct · 2,604th of 3,063 US counties · median +2.9%
- 39th pct · 147th of 243 Texas counties · median +0.0%
- 80th pct · 3rd of 11 counties in the Dallas-Fort Worth-Arlington metro · median -1.9%
- 75th pct · 343rd of 1,399 US counties · median $1,496
- 91st pct · 10th of 106 Texas counties · median $1,483
- 80th pct · 3rd of 11 counties in the Dallas-Fort Worth-Arlington metro · median $1,639
- 87th pct · 418th of 3,221 US counties · median 8,232
- 88th pct · 31st of 254 Texas counties · median 6,022
- 60th pct · 5th of 11 counties in the Dallas-Fort Worth-Arlington metro · median 61,348
- 71st pct · 912th of 3,221 US counties · median $1,039
- 59th pct · 103rd of 254 Texas counties · median $1,115
- 40th pct · 7th of 11 counties in the Dallas-Fort Worth-Arlington metro · median $1,215
- 80th pct · 596th of 3,063 US counties · median 4.3
- 88th pct · 28th of 243 Texas counties · median 3.6
- 80th pct · 3rd of 11 counties in the Dallas-Fort Worth-Arlington metro · median 5.6
Typical home value divided by the average annual wage of one covered job.
A percentile here is a min-max scaling of average rank: the smallest published value in the cohort is 0 and the largest is 100, and tied values share the average of the ranks they span. It is not the share of entities below the value, so 0 means smallest, not none below. Entities that did not publish the metric are outside the cohort entirely and are counted in neither the rank nor its denominator.
Home values #
Typical home $371,935 (Aug 2026), -0.9% over one year, +12.6% over five
- 82nd pct · 541st of 3,063 US counties · median $234,566
- 91st pct · 22nd of 243 Texas counties · median $215,660
- 50th pct · 6th of 11 counties in the Dallas-Fort Worth-Arlington metro · median $371,935
| Item | Value | Distance |
|---|---|---|
| Ellis County, TX | $371,935 · -0.9% 1-yr |
Zillow Home Value Index (ZHVI), typical value of homes in the 35th to 65th percentile, smoothed and seasonally adjusted; a model estimate of value, not a sale price. Data through Zillow Research.
Rents #
Typical rent $1,833/mo (Aug 2026), +0.9% over one year; price-to-rent 16.9
- 75th pct · 343rd of 1,399 US counties · median $1,496
- 91st pct · 10th of 106 Texas counties · median $1,483
- 80th pct · 3rd of 11 counties in the Dallas-Fort Worth-Arlington metro · median $1,639
| Item | Value | Distance |
|---|---|---|
| Ellis County, TX | $1,833/mo · +0.9% 1-yr |
Zillow Observed Rent Index (ZORI), smoothed, all homes and multifamily; price-to-rent = typical home / (typical rent × 12).
What the typical home costs to carry #
Principal and interest of $2,036 a month on $371,935 at 7.28%, against an average weekly wage worth $5,035 a month: 40.4% of one job’s pay.
- payment = P·r / (1 − (1+r)^−n), P = $371,935 × 80% = $297,548, r = 7.28%/12 (Freddie Mac PMMS via FRED, 2026-10-01), n = 360 → $2,036/mo principal and interest
- wage share = payment / (avg weekly wage $1,162 × 52 / 12 = $5,035) = 40% of one average job's pay (BLS QCEW 2026 Q1, all covered jobs)
- years of wages = $371,935 / ($1,162 × 52) = 6.2
- price-to-rent = $371,935 / ($1,833 × 12) = 16.9
The wage is one covered job’s average, not a household’s income, so this is the share of a single paycheque and not a mortgage underwriting ratio.
Estimate. Principal and interest on the typical home with 20% down over 30 years at this week's Freddie Mac average rate; compared with the average weekly wage of all jobs covered by unemployment insurance in the area (BLS QCEW), which is pay per job, not household income.
Jobs & wages #
66,365 jobs at 4,090 employers (2026 Q1); +4.1% jobs and +1.1% average weekly wage over the year
- 87th pct · 418th of 3,221 US counties · median 8,232
- 88th pct · 31st of 254 Texas counties · median 6,022
- 60th pct · 5th of 11 counties in the Dallas-Fort Worth-Arlington metro · median 61,348
| Item | Value | Distance |
|---|---|---|
| Ellis County, TX | 66,365 jobs · $1,162/wk · +4.1% YoY |
| NAICS sector | Jobs | Avg weekly wage | Location quotient | Jobs over the year |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Manufacturing | 10,372 | $1,596 | 1.94 | -2.2% |
| Retail trade | 7,633 | $740 | 1.18 | +2.4% |
| Accommodation and food services | 7,180 | $421 | 1.20 | +5.8% |
| Health care and social assistance | 6,572 | $1,066 | 0.66 | +5.9% |
| Construction | 5,933 | $1,450 | 1.71 | +6.7% |
| Transportation and warehousing | 4,117 | $1,129 | 1.47 | -6.2% |
| Administrative and waste services | 3,431 | $1,047 | 0.91 | +18.0% |
| Wholesale trade | 2,229 | $1,695 | 0.88 | +14.0% |
| Professional and technical services | 1,872 | $1,816 | 0.41 | +6.2% |
| Other services | 1,631 | $829 | 0.82 | -0.1% |
| Educational services | 1,110 | $895 | 0.78 | +10.7% |
| Finance and insurance | 994 | $1,832 | 0.37 | -0.7% |
BLS Quarterly Census of Employment and Wages, all ownerships, total covered employment in the quarter's third month; over-the-year changes as published. Suppressed cells stay blank.
Drought #
D3 extreme drought
Sites found: 5, searched within 0 km of this place’s internal point. That is a disc around a point, not the area itself: sites outside the boundary are included, and sites inside it further than 0 km away are not.
US Drought Monitor current week; the highest class of any polygon containing the point.
Reservoirs #
Surface water layer not loaded
Sites found: 35, searched within 150 km of this place’s internal point. That is a disc around a point, not the area itself: sites outside the boundary are included, and sites inside it further than 150 km away are not.
| Site | Reading | Distance |
|---|---|---|
| Lake Waxahachie | 76 % full · 11k ac-ft | 1 km |
| Bardwell Lake | 89 % full · 44k ac-ft | 18 km |
| Joe Pool Lake | 93 % full · 150k ac-ft | 38 km |
| Navarro Mills Lake | 83 % full · 50k ac-ft | 44 km |
| Mountain Creek Lake | 100 % full · 23k ac-ft | 45 km |
| Halbert Lake | 77 % full · 6k ac-ft | 47 km |
| Lake Arlington | 86 % full · 40k ac-ft | 55 km |
| Lake Ray Hubbard | 86 % full · 440k ac-ft | 58 km |
Σ(capacity × percent full) / Σ capacity over TWDB reservoirs within 150 km. Texas only; elsewhere USGS reservoir elevation/storage is listed without a capacity to normalise by.
Stream gauges #
Surface water layer not loaded
Sites found: 0, searched within 75 km of this place’s internal point. That is a disc around a point, not the area itself: sites outside the boundary are included, and sites inside it further than 75 km away are not.
USGS latest readings screened against EPA freshwater criteria (DO ≥ 5 mg/L, pH 6.5–9, conductance, turbidity, temperature); NWS flood categories where a NWPS gauge is co-located.
Groundwater #
No USGS monitoring wells within 75 km (or above 1,500 km)
Sites found: 0, searched within 75 km of this place’s internal point. That is a disc around a point, not the area itself: sites outside the boundary are included, and sites inside it further than 75 km away are not.
USGS latest daily water levels. A single latest reading says where the table is, not which way it is moving; select a well for its 365-day trace.
Water stress #
moderate (0.47)
Σ wᵢ·termᵢ / Σ wᵢ = 0.35×0.75 + 0.3×0.13 / 0.65
Banks & federal dollars #
$4.0 bn in deposits at 37 offices of 15 banks (SOD June 2026); HHI 1,861, highly concentrated. $1.2 bn federal obligations in FY2026 (direct payments $1.2 bn, grants $53.0 m), $18,704 per covered job
| Item | Value | Distance |
|---|---|---|
| Citizens National Bank of Texas | $1.5 bn · 38.1% share · 6 offices | |
| Prosperity Bank | $389.8 m · 9.9% share · 3 offices | |
| Wells Fargo Bank, National Association | $372.8 m · 9.4% share · 3 offices | |
| Ellis, TX | $1.2 bn FY2026 · $18,704/job |
| Institution | Deposits | Share | Offices |
|---|---|---|---|
| Citizens National Bank of Texas | $1,506,995,000 | 38.1% | 6 |
| Prosperity Bank | $389,815,000 | 9.9% | 3 |
| Wells Fargo Bank, National Association | $372,782,000 | 9.4% | 3 |
| First Financial Bank | $310,919,000 | 7.9% | 2 |
| InterBank | $274,723,000 | 6.9% | 3 |
| Trinity Capital Bank of Texas | $239,304,000 | 6.1% | 2 |
| JPMorgan Chase Bank, National Association | $236,124,000 | 6.0% | 2 |
| Harmony Bank | $143,338,000 | 3.6% | 3 |
| PNC Bank, National Association | $124,825,000 | 3.2% | 2 |
| Commercial State Bank | $95,596,000 | 2.4% | 2 |
Deposit concentration is 1,861 across 15 banks, which the 1995 Department of Justice bank merger screen calls highly concentrated.
HHI = Σ (share %)² over 15 banks with deposits in the county = 38.1² + 9.9² + 9.4² + … (12 more) = 1,861
FDIC Summary of Deposits: deposits at every insured office as of June 30, annual; HHI is the sum of squared county deposit shares (DOJ 1995 bank merger screen: 1000 / 1800). USAspending: obligations by place of performance for the latest complete federal fiscal year (Oct 1 to Sep 30), what agencies committed, not what they paid out; recipients are legal entities. Per-job divides obligations by BLS QCEW covered employment.
Federal obligations #
That is $18,704 per covered job, against 66,365 jobs in the 2026 Q1 QCEW quarter.
per job = FY2026 obligations $1.2 bn / 66,365 covered jobs (BLS QCEW 2026 Q1, all ownerships) = $18,704
USAspending obligations are recorded where the work is performed, so a prime award performed here is counted here even when the recipient is headquartered elsewhere. Recipients are legal entities, never people.
National context, not this county #
These are United States, single-gauge, single-state and port series. None of them is keyed to this county.
| Series | Latest | As of | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Mississippi River at Memphis, stage · ft | not published | not published | |
| Mississippi River at St. Louis, stage · ft | not published | not published | |
| Ohio River at Louisville, stage · ft | 12.69 | 2026-10-05 | +3.3% |
| Missouri River at St. Joseph, stage · ft | not published | not published | |
| Colorado River below Hoover Dam, flow (Hoover releases) · ft³/s | 5,170.00 | 2026-02-05 | -25.3% |
| Texas reservoirs, statewide percent full · % | 72.60 | 2026-10-06 | +0.0% |
| Laredo truck crossings, monthly · trucks | 258,700.00 | 2026-08-01 | -0.4% |
| Los Angeles + Long Beach container volume, annual · TEU | 10,513,167.00 | 2023-01-01 | -13.5% |
| Containerships waiting for a berth, all US ports · ships | 6.00 | 2026-09-22 | -14.3% |
| Shanghai to Los Angeles container rate · $ per 40 ft box | 6,830.00 | 2026-08-01 | +7.4% |
| US diesel retail price · $ per gallon | unavailable | not published | |
| WTI crude oil, spot · $ per barrel | 96.16 | 2026-09-29 | -3.2% |
| 30-year fixed mortgage rate · % | 7.28 | 2026-10-01 | +3.6% |
| Housing starts, annual rate · thousands of units | 1,275.00 | 2026-08-01 | -2.6% |
| Building permits, annual rate · thousands of units | 1,403.00 | 2026-08-01 | -2.1% |
| Case-Shiller US home price index · index, Jan 2000 = 100 | 337.31 | 2026-07-01 | +0.1% |
| Unemployment rate · % | 4.20 | 2026-09-01 | +2.4% |
| US goods and services trade balance, monthly · $ millions | -105,572.00 | 2026-08-01 | -13.7% |
| Retail sales excluding food services, monthly · $ millions | 646,347.00 | 2026-08-01 | +1.1% |
The indicator registry has no county-keyed series and no geographic selection: every entry is national, a named gauge, a single state or a port. They are here as the backdrop the county's own numbers move against, and they are never this county's readings.
What changed #
Ellis County, TX: 10 findings, 1 at a watch level and 9 noted
watchEllis County, TX's typical home value is -0.9% against a year earlier, a watch level here: typical home value below a year ago (arithmetic on Zillow ZHVI, county and metro files; not an official level). The previous published period is not in this table, so this is a standing level rather than a change.
Period 2026-08.Show the arithmetic
- test: home.yoyPct = -0.9326568774585029 < 0
arithmetic on Zillow ZHVI, county and metro files; not an official level
noteEllis County, TX's covered employment was 4.1% higher than the same quarter a year earlier in 2026 Q1, on BLS QCEW's published over-the-year change.
Period 2026 Q1.Show the arithmetic
- +4.1 % = BLS QCEW over-the-year percent change for 2026 Q1, as published
- the newest QCEW file carries no year-earlier level, so no move from one level to another is printed
BLS QCEW over-the-year percent change, as published
noteEllis County, TX's average weekly wage was 1.1% higher than the same quarter a year earlier in 2026 Q1, on BLS QCEW's published over-the-year change.
Period 2026 Q1.Show the arithmetic
- +1.1 % = BLS QCEW over-the-year percent change for 2026 Q1, as published
- the newest QCEW file carries no year-earlier level, so no move from one level to another is printed
BLS QCEW over-the-year percent change, as published
noteEllis County, TX's typical asking rent rose 0.4% from $1,826 in July 2026 to $1,833 in August 2026, on Zillow ZORI.
Period 2026-08.Show the arithmetic
- +0.4% = (1833.200194250194 - 1826.2738272486947) / 1826.2738272486947 × 100
- 1833.200194250194 = Zillow ZORI, 2026-08
- 1826.2738272486947 = Zillow ZORI, 2026-07
noteEllis County, TX's covered employment of +4.1% ranks 266th of 3,221 US counties, against a median of -0.2%.
Period 2026 Q1.Show the arithmetic
- 92 on the 0-to-100 scale across 3221 US counties that published jobs.yoy.emp
position among the entities that published this metric this period; not an official level
Read all 10 findings in the full brief
Every finding is produced by a fixed rule table and a fixed sentence for each rule. Nothing here is generated prose.