Uvalde County, TX
Housing, jobs, water, deposits and federal obligations for this county, each figure with the release it came from. Internal point 29.35, -99.77.
Assembled 2026-10-06. Read the brief.
- 34th pct · 2,003rd of 3,063 US counties · median $234,566
- 40th pct · 144th of 243 Texas counties · median $215,660
- 3rd pct · 2,945th of 3,063 US counties · median +2.9%
- 6th pct · 227th of 243 Texas counties · median +0.0%
- US counties: not published this period
- Texas counties: not published this period
- 53rd pct · 1,499th of 3,221 US counties · median 8,232
- 62nd pct · 95th of 254 Texas counties · median 6,022
- 30th pct · 2,248th of 3,221 US counties · median $1,039
- 20th pct · 202nd of 254 Texas counties · median $1,115
- 42nd pct · 1,764th of 3,063 US counties · median 4.3
- 57th pct · 104th of 243 Texas counties · median 3.6
Typical home value divided by the average annual wage of one covered job.
A percentile here is a min-max scaling of average rank: the smallest published value in the cohort is 0 and the largest is 100, and tied values share the average of the ranks they span. It is not the share of entities below the value, so 0 means smallest, not none below. Entities that did not publish the metric are outside the cohort entirely and are counted in neither the rank nor its denominator.
Home values #
Typical home $194,251 (Aug 2026), -5.5% over one year, -0.8% over five
- 34th pct · 2,003rd of 3,063 US counties · median $234,566
- 40th pct · 144th of 243 Texas counties · median $215,660
| Item | Value | Distance |
|---|---|---|
| Uvalde County, TX | $194,251 · -5.5% 1-yr |
Zillow Home Value Index (ZHVI), typical value of homes in the 35th to 65th percentile, smoothed and seasonally adjusted; a model estimate of value, not a sale price. Data through Zillow Research.
Rents #
Zillow publishes no rent index for this area (ZORI covers about 1,400 counties)
- US counties: not published this period
- Texas counties: not published this period
Zillow Observed Rent Index (ZORI), smoothed, all homes and multifamily; price-to-rent = typical home / (typical rent × 12).
What the typical home costs to carry #
Principal and interest of $1,063 a month on $194,251 at 7.28%, against an average weekly wage worth $4,130 a month: 25.7% of one job’s pay.
- payment = P·r / (1 − (1+r)^−n), P = $194,251 × 80% = $155,400, r = 7.28%/12 (Freddie Mac PMMS via FRED, 2026-10-01), n = 360 → $1,063/mo principal and interest
- wage share = payment / (avg weekly wage $953 × 52 / 12 = $4,130) = 26% of one average job's pay (BLS QCEW 2026 Q1, all covered jobs)
- years of wages = $194,251 / ($953 × 52) = 3.9
The wage is one covered job’s average, not a household’s income, so this is the share of a single paycheque and not a mortgage underwriting ratio.
Estimate. Principal and interest on the typical home with 20% down over 30 years at this week's Freddie Mac average rate; compared with the average weekly wage of all jobs covered by unemployment insurance in the area (BLS QCEW), which is pay per job, not household income.
Jobs & wages #
9,451 jobs at 709 employers (2026 Q1); -3.8% jobs and +4.7% average weekly wage over the year
- 53rd pct · 1,499th of 3,221 US counties · median 8,232
- 62nd pct · 95th of 254 Texas counties · median 6,022
| Item | Value | Distance |
|---|---|---|
| Uvalde County, TX | 9,451 jobs · $953/wk · -3.8% YoY |
| NAICS sector | Jobs | Avg weekly wage | Location quotient | Jobs over the year |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Retail trade | 1,385 | $643 | 1.50 | -4.6% |
| Accommodation and food services | 1,243 | $438 | 1.46 | +2.8% |
| Agriculture, forestry, fishing | 389 | $686 | 5.70 | +5.7% |
| Wholesale trade | 369 | $1,125 | 1.02 | +3.1% |
| Administrative and waste services | 303 | $675 | 0.56 | -14.6% |
| Transportation and warehousing | 299 | $1,077 | 0.75 | -14.6% |
| Construction | 297 | $969 | 0.60 | -7.5% |
| Other services | 268 | $810 | 0.95 | +0.0% |
| Finance and insurance | 209 | $1,552 | 0.54 | -2.3% |
| Manufacturing | 164 | $1,837 | 0.22 | -20.8% |
| Real estate and rental | 109 | $858 | 0.75 | +4.8% |
| Utilities | 85 | $2,272 | 2.28 | -38.4% |
BLS Quarterly Census of Employment and Wages, all ownerships, total covered employment in the quarter's third month; over-the-year changes as published. Suppressed cells stay blank.
Drought #
D1 moderate drought
Sites found: 5, searched within 0 km of this place’s internal point. That is a disc around a point, not the area itself: sites outside the boundary are included, and sites inside it further than 0 km away are not.
US Drought Monitor current week; the highest class of any polygon containing the point.
Reservoirs #
42 % of conservation capacity, weighted over 2 TWDB reservoirs
Sites found: 3, searched within 150 km of this place’s internal point. That is a disc around a point, not the area itself: sites outside the boundary are included, and sites inside it further than 150 km away are not.
| Site | Reading | Distance |
|---|---|---|
| Medina Lk nr San Antonio, TX | 73,420 Acre-ft (USGS, no capacity on file) | 84 km |
| Medina Lake | 29 % full · 255k ac-ft | 84 km |
| Amistad Reservoir | 44 % full · 1,813k ac-ft | 125 km |
Σ(capacity × percent full) / Σ capacity over TWDB reservoirs within 150 km. Texas only; elsewhere USGS reservoir elevation/storage is listed without a capacity to normalise by.
Stream gauges #
33 gauges · 0 flooding · 3 with quality panels averaging 75 % · 6 stale
Sites found: 33, searched within 75 km of this place’s internal point. That is a disc around a point, not the area itself: sites outside the boundary are included, and sites inside it further than 75 km away are not.
| Site | Reading | Distance |
|---|---|---|
| YP-69-51-606 (E. Uvalde 3) | temp 31.0 °C · quality 25 % (2) · STALE | 22 km |
| Leona Rv at CR 429A nr Uvalde, TX | flow 0.00 ft³/s | 2 km |
| Dry Frio Rv at FM 2690 nr Knippa, TX | stage 5.00 ft | 7 km |
| Frio Rv bl Dry Frio Rv nr Uvalde, TX | flow 0.00 ft³/s · no flooding | 15 km |
| Frio Rv at Concan, TX | flow 72.2 ft³/s · quality 100 % (2) · no flooding | 17 km |
| Dry Frio Rv nr Reagan Wells, TX | flow 28.9 ft³/s · no flooding | 17 km |
| Leona Rv nr Uvalde, TX | flow 0.00 ft³/s | 22 km |
| Nueces Rv at Laguna, TX | flow 315.0 ft³/s · no flooding | 24 km |
| Nueces Rv bl Uvalde, TX | flow 200.0 ft³/s · no flooding | 28 km |
| Sabinal Rv at Sabinal, TX | flow 7.08 ft³/s · no flooding | 28 km |
USGS latest readings screened against EPA freshwater criteria (DO ≥ 5 mg/L, pH 6.5–9, conductance, turbidity, temperature); NWS flood categories where a NWPS gauge is co-located.
Groundwater #
12 wells in 2 named aquifers: Edwards-Trinity aquifer system, Alluvial aquifers
Sites found: 12, searched within 75 km of this place’s internal point. That is a disc around a point, not the area itself: sites outside the boundary are included, and sites inside it further than 75 km away are not.
| Site | Reading | Distance |
|---|---|---|
| Edwards-Trinity aquifer system | depth 44.7 ft · 2026-10-05 | 15 km |
| Edwards-Trinity aquifer system | depth 167.4 ft · 2014-01-14 | 22 km |
| Alluvial aquifers | depth 17.1 ft · 2013-12-07 | 42 km |
| Edwards-Trinity aquifer system | depth 250.4 ft · 2026-10-05 | 48 km |
| Edwards-Trinity aquifer system | depth 118.8 ft · 2004-08-04 | 55 km |
| WA-69-11-3XX (St. Jude Well) | depth 99.4 ft · 2014-07-21 | 56 km |
| Edwards-Trinity aquifer system | depth 118.7 ft · 2003-09-29 | 56 km |
| Edwards-Trinity aquifer system | depth 248.8 ft · 2026-10-05 | 61 km |
USGS latest daily water levels. A single latest reading says where the table is, not which way it is moving; select a well for its 365-day trace.
Water stress #
moderate (0.37)
Σ wᵢ·termᵢ / Σ wᵢ = 0.35×0.25 + 0.3×0.58 + 0.2×0.25 / 0.85
Banks & federal dollars #
$1.4 bn in deposits at 7 offices of 3 banks (SOD June 2026); HHI 8,601, highly concentrated. $162.3 m federal obligations in FY2026 (direct payments $154.7 m, grants $5.6 m), $17,175 per covered job
| Item | Value | Distance |
|---|---|---|
| First State Bank of Uvalde | $1.3 bn · 92.5% share · 5 offices | |
| TXN Bank | $96.1 m · 7.1% share · 1 office | |
| First National Bank Texas | $5.8 m · 0.4% share · 1 office | |
| Uvalde, TX | $162.3 m FY2026 · $17,175/job | |
| MULTIPLE RECIPIENTS | $130.7 m · top recipient FY2026 |
| Institution | Deposits | Share | Offices |
|---|---|---|---|
| First State Bank of Uvalde | $1,250,611,000 | 92.5% | 5 |
| TXN Bank | $96,060,000 | 7.1% | 1 |
| First National Bank Texas | $5,831,000 | 0.4% | 1 |
Deposit concentration is 8,601 across 3 banks, which the 1995 Department of Justice bank merger screen calls highly concentrated.
HHI = Σ (share %)² over 3 banks with deposits in the county = 92.5² + 7.1² + 0.4² = 8,601
FDIC Summary of Deposits: deposits at every insured office as of June 30, annual; HHI is the sum of squared county deposit shares (DOJ 1995 bank merger screen: 1000 / 1800). USAspending: obligations by place of performance for the latest complete federal fiscal year (Oct 1 to Sep 30), what agencies committed, not what they paid out; recipients are legal entities. Per-job divides obligations by BLS QCEW covered employment.
Federal obligations #
USAspending place-of-performance obligations for FY2026, by awarding agency.
| Awarding agency | Obligations |
|---|---|
| Social Security Administration | $109,214,658 |
| Department of Veterans Affairs | $19,712,343 |
| Department of Education | $18,142,273 |
| Department of Health and Human Services | $4,787,865 |
| Department of Agriculture | $4,697,506 |
| Department of Transportation | $2,047,986 |
| Department of Housing and Urban Development | $1,732,879 |
| Railroad Retirement Board | $1,109,702 |
| Department of Homeland Security | $622,953 |
| Federal Communications Commission | $148,086 |
| Department of the Interior | $104,536 |
| Small Business Administration | $0 |
That is $17,175 per covered job, against 9,451 jobs in the 2026 Q1 QCEW quarter.
per job = FY2026 obligations $162.3 m / 9,451 covered jobs (BLS QCEW 2026 Q1, all ownerships) = $17,175
USAspending obligations are recorded where the work is performed, so a prime award performed here is counted here even when the recipient is headquartered elsewhere. Recipients are legal entities, never people.
National context, not this county #
These are United States, single-gauge, single-state and port series. None of them is keyed to this county.
| Series | Latest | As of | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Mississippi River at Memphis, stage · ft | not published | not published | |
| Mississippi River at St. Louis, stage · ft | not published | not published | |
| Ohio River at Louisville, stage · ft | 12.69 | 2026-10-05 | +3.3% |
| Missouri River at St. Joseph, stage · ft | not published | not published | |
| Colorado River below Hoover Dam, flow (Hoover releases) · ft³/s | 5,170.00 | 2026-02-05 | -25.3% |
| Texas reservoirs, statewide percent full · % | 72.60 | 2026-10-06 | +0.0% |
| Laredo truck crossings, monthly · trucks | 258,700.00 | 2026-08-01 | -0.4% |
| Los Angeles + Long Beach container volume, annual · TEU | 10,513,167.00 | 2023-01-01 | -13.5% |
| Containerships waiting for a berth, all US ports · ships | 6.00 | 2026-09-22 | -14.3% |
| Shanghai to Los Angeles container rate · $ per 40 ft box | 6,830.00 | 2026-08-01 | +7.4% |
| US diesel retail price · $ per gallon | unavailable | not published | |
| WTI crude oil, spot · $ per barrel | 96.16 | 2026-09-29 | -3.2% |
| 30-year fixed mortgage rate · % | 7.28 | 2026-10-01 | +3.6% |
| Housing starts, annual rate · thousands of units | 1,275.00 | 2026-08-01 | -2.6% |
| Building permits, annual rate · thousands of units | 1,403.00 | 2026-08-01 | -2.1% |
| Case-Shiller US home price index · index, Jan 2000 = 100 | 337.31 | 2026-07-01 | +0.1% |
| Unemployment rate · % | 4.20 | 2026-09-01 | +2.4% |
| US goods and services trade balance, monthly · $ millions | -88,576.00 | 2026-07-01 | -24.4% |
| Retail sales excluding food services, monthly · $ millions | 646,347.00 | 2026-08-01 | +1.1% |
The indicator registry has no county-keyed series and no geographic selection: every entry is national, a named gauge, a single state or a port. They are here as the backdrop the county's own numbers move against, and they are never this county's readings.
What changed #
Uvalde County, TX: 13 findings, 2 at an alert level, 3 at a watch level and 8 noted
alertUvalde County, TX's covered employment is -3.8% against a year earlier, an alert level here: covered employment at least 3 percent below the same quarter a year earlier (BLS QCEW over-the-year percent change, as published; convention chosen for this dashboard, not an official level). The previous published period is not in this table, so this is a standing level rather than a change.
Period 2026 Q1.Show the arithmetic
- test: jobs.yoy.emp = -3.8 <= -3
BLS QCEW over-the-year percent change, as published; convention chosen for this dashboard, not an official level
alertUvalde County, TX's typical home value is -5.5% against a year earlier, an alert level here: typical home value at least 5 percent below a year ago (arithmetic on Zillow ZHVI, county and metro files; convention chosen for this dashboard, not an official level). The previous published period is not in this table, so this is a standing level rather than a change.
Period 2026-08.Show the arithmetic
- test: home.yoyPct = -5.52787662692344 <= -5
arithmetic on Zillow ZHVI, county and metro files; convention chosen for this dashboard, not an official level
watchUvalde County, TX's typical home value is -5.5% against a year earlier, a watch level here: typical home value below a year ago (arithmetic on Zillow ZHVI, county and metro files; not an official level). The previous published period is not in this table, so this is a standing level rather than a change.
Period 2026-08.Show the arithmetic
- test: home.yoyPct = -5.52787662692344 < 0
arithmetic on Zillow ZHVI, county and metro files; not an official level
watchUvalde County, TX's covered employment is -3.8% against a year earlier, a watch level here: covered employment below the same quarter a year earlier (BLS QCEW over-the-year percent change, as published; not an official level). The previous published period is not in this table, so this is a standing level rather than a change.
Period 2026 Q1.Show the arithmetic
- test: jobs.yoy.emp = -3.8 < 0
BLS QCEW over-the-year percent change, as published; not an official level
watchUvalde County, TX's momentum index is -0.32, a watch level here: momentum index in the cooling band (the cooling band of the momentum index computed here, score at or below -0.25; convention chosen for this dashboard, not an official level). The previous published period is not in this table, so this is a standing level rather than a change.
Period 2026-08.Show the arithmetic
- test: momentum = -0.31765054761690575 <= -0.25
- momentum = Σ wᵢ · clip(changeᵢ / scaleᵢ, −1, 1) / Σ wᵢ over the terms present; weights and scales: home value 1-yr change 0.3 (±10%), rent 1-yr change 0.15 (±10%), jobs over-the-year change 0.3 (±3%), avg weekly wage over-the-year change 0.25 (±6%)
the cooling band of the momentum index computed here, score at or below -0.25; convention chosen for this dashboard, not an official level
Read all 12 findings in the full brief
Every finding is produced by a fixed rule table and a fixed sentence for each rule. Nothing here is generated prose.