Newton County, TX

Home values #

Typical home $162,419 (Aug 2026), +6.0% over one year, +5.8% over five

• 20th pct · 2,439th of 3,063 US counties · median $234,566
• 26th pct · 179th of 243 Texas counties · median $215,660

Zillow Home Value Index (ZHVI), typical value of homes in the 35th to 65th percentile, smoothed and seasonally adjusted; a model estimate of value, not a sale price. Data through Zillow Research.

Rents #

Zillow publishes no rent index for this area (ZORI covers about 1,400 counties)

• US counties: not published this period
• Texas counties: not published this period

Zillow Observed Rent Index (ZORI), smoothed, all homes and multifamily; price-to-rent = typical home / (typical rent × 12).

What the typical home costs to carry #

Principal and interest of $889 a month on $162,419 at 7.28%, against an average weekly wage worth $3,722 a month: 23.9% of one job’s pay.

• payment = P·r / (1 − (1+r)^−n), P = $162,419 × 80% = $129,935, r = 7.28%/12 (Freddie Mac PMMS via FRED, 2026-10-01), n = 360 → $889/mo principal and interest
• wage share = payment / (avg weekly wage $859 × 52 / 12 = $3,722) = 24% of one average job's pay (BLS QCEW 2026 Q1, all covered jobs)
• years of wages = $162,419 / ($859 × 52) = 3.6

The wage is one covered job’s average, not a household’s income, so this is the share of a single paycheque and not a mortgage underwriting ratio.

Estimate. Principal and interest on the typical home with 20% down over 30 years at this week's Freddie Mac average rate; compared with the average weekly wage of all jobs covered by unemployment insurance in the area (BLS QCEW), which is pay per job, not household income.

Jobs & wages #

1,184 jobs at 141 employers (2026 Q1); -6.1% jobs and -8.4% average weekly wage over the year

• 8th pct · 2,955th of 3,221 US counties · median 8,232
• 16th pct · 213th of 254 Texas counties · median 6,022

BLS Quarterly Census of Employment and Wages, all ownerships, total covered employment in the quarter's third month; over-the-year changes as published. Suppressed cells stay blank.

Drought #

D1 moderate drought

Sites found: 5, searched within 0 km of this place’s internal point. That is a disc around a point, not the area itself: sites outside the boundary are included, and sites inside it further than 0 km away are not.

US Drought Monitor current week; the highest class of any polygon containing the point.

Reservoirs #

78 % of conservation capacity, weighted over 5 TWDB reservoirs

Sites found: 8, searched within 150 km of this place’s internal point. That is a disc around a point, not the area itself: sites outside the boundary are included, and sites inside it further than 150 km away are not.

Σ(capacity × percent full) / Σ capacity over TWDB reservoirs within 150 km. Texas only; elsewhere USGS reservoir elevation/storage is listed without a capacity to normalise by.

Stream gauges #

53 gauges · 0 flooding · 0 with quality panels · 7 stale

Sites found: 53, searched within 75 km of this place’s internal point. That is a disc around a point, not the area itself: sites outside the boundary are included, and sites inside it further than 75 km away are not.

USGS latest readings screened against EPA freshwater criteria (DO ≥ 5 mg/L, pH 6.5–9, conductance, turbidity, temperature); NWS flood categories where a NWPS gauge is co-located.

Groundwater #

3 wells in 0 named aquifers:

Sites found: 3, searched within 75 km of this place’s internal point. That is a disc around a point, not the area itself: sites outside the boundary are included, and sites inside it further than 75 km away are not.

USGS latest daily water levels. A single latest reading says where the table is, not which way it is moving; select a well for its 365-day trace.

Water stress #

low (0.24)

Σ wᵢ·termᵢ / Σ wᵢ = 0.35×0.25 + 0.3×0.22 / 0.65

Banks & federal dollars #

$56.5 m in deposits at 2 offices of 2 banks (SOD June 2026); HHI 5,138, highly concentrated. $71.2 m federal obligations in FY2026 (direct payments $68.7 m, grants $2.5 m), $60,144 per covered job

Deposit concentration is 5,138 across 2 banks, which the 1995 Department of Justice bank merger screen calls highly concentrated.

HHI = Σ (share %)² over 2 banks with deposits in the county = 58.3² + 41.7² = 5,138

FDIC Summary of Deposits: deposits at every insured office as of June 30, annual; HHI is the sum of squared county deposit shares (DOJ 1995 bank merger screen: 1000 / 1800). USAspending: obligations by place of performance for the latest complete federal fiscal year (Oct 1 to Sep 30), what agencies committed, not what they paid out; recipients are legal entities. Per-job divides obligations by BLS QCEW covered employment.

Federal obligations #

USAspending place-of-performance obligations for FY2026, by awarding agency.

That is $60,144 per covered job, against 1,184 jobs in the 2026 Q1 QCEW quarter.

per job = FY2026 obligations $71.2 m / 1,184 covered jobs (BLS QCEW 2026 Q1, all ownerships) = $60,144

USAspending obligations are recorded where the work is performed, so a prime award performed here is counted here even when the recipient is headquartered elsewhere. Recipients are legal entities, never people.

National context, not this county #

These are United States, single-gauge, single-state and port series. None of them is keyed to this county.

The indicator registry has no county-keyed series and no geographic selection: every entry is national, a named gauge, a single state or a port. They are here as the backdrop the county's own numbers move against, and they are never this county's readings.

What changed #

Newton County, TX: 14 findings, 1 at an alert level, 3 at a watch level and 10 noted

1. alertNewton County, TX's covered employment is -6.1% against a year earlier, an alert level here: covered employment at least 3 percent below the same quarter a year earlier (BLS QCEW over-the-year percent change, as published; convention chosen for this dashboard, not an official level). The previous published period is not in this table, so this is a standing level rather than a change.

   Period 2026 Q1.
   Show the arithmetic

   • test: jobs.yoy.emp = -6.1 <= -3

   BLS QCEW over-the-year percent change, as published; convention chosen for this dashboard, not an official level

2. watchNewton County, TX's average weekly wage is -8.4% against a year earlier, a watch level here: average weekly wage below the same quarter a year earlier, before inflation (BLS QCEW over-the-year percent change, as published, nominal dollars; convention chosen for this dashboard, not an official level). The previous published period is not in this table, so this is a standing level rather than a change.

   Period 2026 Q1.
   Show the arithmetic

   • test: jobs.yoy.avgWeeklyWage = -8.4 < 0

   BLS QCEW over-the-year percent change, as published, nominal dollars; convention chosen for this dashboard, not an official level

3. watchNewton County, TX's covered employment is -6.1% against a year earlier, a watch level here: covered employment below the same quarter a year earlier (BLS QCEW over-the-year percent change, as published; not an official level). The previous published period is not in this table, so this is a standing level rather than a change.

   Period 2026 Q1.
   Show the arithmetic

   • test: jobs.yoy.emp = -6.1 < 0

   BLS QCEW over-the-year percent change, as published; not an official level

4. watchNewton County, TX's momentum index is -0.43, a watch level here: momentum index in the cooling band (the cooling band of the momentum index computed here, score at or below -0.25; convention chosen for this dashboard, not an official level). The previous published period is not in this table, so this is a standing level rather than a change.

   Period 2026-08.
   Show the arithmetic

   • test: momentum = -0.4341744368752017 <= -0.25
   • momentum = Σ wᵢ · clip(changeᵢ / scaleᵢ, −1, 1) / Σ wᵢ over the terms present; weights and scales: home value 1-yr change 0.3 (±10%), rent 1-yr change 0.15 (±10%), jobs over-the-year change 0.3 (±3%), avg weekly wage over-the-year change 0.25 (±6%)

   the cooling band of the momentum index computed here, score at or below -0.25; convention chosen for this dashboard, not an official level

5. noteNewton County, TX's average weekly wage was 8.4% lower than the same quarter a year earlier in 2026 Q1, on BLS QCEW's published over-the-year change.

   Period 2026 Q1.
   Show the arithmetic

   • -8.4 % = BLS QCEW over-the-year percent change for 2026 Q1, as published
   • the newest QCEW file carries no year-earlier level, so no move from one level to another is printed

   BLS QCEW over-the-year percent change, as published

Read all 12 findings in the full brief

Every finding is produced by a fixed rule table and a fixed sentence for each rule. Nothing here is generated prose.